Phillies Versus Mets: The Tale of the Tape

They’ve battled back and forth throughout the second half, flipping between winning and losing streaks, watching key players heat up and cool down, and switching spots in the standings more than once. Now, with the Phillies just two games behind the Mets for first place in the NL East before last night’s games, and the two teams gearing up for a huge three-game series at Shea this weekend, it’s time to weigh in.STARSMets: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan SantanaPhillies: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Cole HamelsWright and Utley are a wash, two power-hitting, high-on-base stars who fare well at premium defensive positions and deliver consistent production. Albert Pujols has been the best player in the league this year, but both Wright and Utley could make a good case for MVP runner-up status.Reyes bests Rollins in virtually every category, as the Mets shortstop continues his rise while the Phillies shortstop plummets back down to earth after winning a 2007 MVP award he didn’t actually deserve. Bonus points for Rollins ripping his own fans in the press.Given their respective reputations and superficial stats, you’d think Howard would be a lock over Beltran — but you’d be wrong. If it’s possible to have a pedestrian season with 37 homers and 115 RBI in early September, Howard’s done it, compiling those numbers in a favorable hitter’s park, offering no defensive or baserunning contributions, and putting up a paltry .324 OBA. Meanwhile, the much-maligned Beltran owns a 2008 line of .275 AVG/.365 OBA/.476 SLG, trumping Howard’s .234/.324/.490 before we even start adjusting for Shea’s tougher hitting environment. Beltran also offers strong defense at another premium position, steals bases at a high rate, and runs the bases far better than Howard does. Howard has an undeserved MVP award of his own, while Beltran is often the target of the bloodthirsty New York press — but Beltran’s been the superior player this year.Both Santana and Hamels have been stellar this season, their won-lost records dragged down by lousy support from their teammates. There’s little separating these two lefty aces from the Brandon Webbs and Tim Lincecums of the NL this season, nor from each other.Advantage: MetsSIDEKICKSMets: Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, Pedro MartinezPhillies: Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Brett MyersIt’s odd to think of one of the 10 best pitchers of all-time as a sidekick, but that’s where Pedro Martinez dwells at this point in his career. The stronger contributors to the Mets rotation have been Pelfrey and Perez, both of whom have shined in the second half, helping the Mets to their current division lead. Delgado has been even better in recent weeks, knocking in 48 runs in July and August and suddenly back above 30 homers after a miserable start to the season.Burrell has been the Bizarro Delgado, starting the year hitting like an MVP candidate before going cold down the stretch. The Phillies have gotten enough pitching to stay in the race, though, with Blanton providing adequate support and Myers near-average production after being jerked between the rotation and the bullpen and back. Jamie Moyer is the story here, though, as the 45-year-old leads the staff in wins, maintains a tidy 3.80 ERA, and has somehow yielded just 18 homers in 166 innings. His 22-mph changeup is performing miracles in Philly’s launching pad.Advantage: Mets, by a noseSCRUBSMets: Joe Smith, Fernando Tatis, Daniel Murphy, Damion Easley, Endy ChavezPhillies: J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Jayson Werth, Chris Coste, Greg DobbsA tricky category, since both teams have players on the roster who were cast off by multiple teams, only to find success on their current squads. You could argue that Werth has outgrown his prior scrub status, posting a huge .279/.377/.525 season with 21 homers in just 326 at bats. Or that the well-traveled Romero and formerly shaky Durbin are now key contributors, along with Brad Lidge, in a bullpen that ranks among the best in baseball.Of course, maybe that’s the whole point. The Phillies have done a great job of finding undervalued talent and parlaying it into key contributions. The Mets have gotten a boost from unlikely sources such as Tatis, but not to the same extent.Advantage: PhilliesHATRED OF BRAVESThe Braves are 20 games under .500 at this writing, their sort-of-but-not-really dynasty of 1991-2005 now squarely in the rearview mirror. Even that winning era is a source of controversy for fans of other NL East teams, as the Braves like to tout their 14 straight NL East titles, ignoring the fact that the Montreal Expos were cleaning their clocks in 1994 at the time of the players’ strike. When the Braves lose, everyone else wins.Advantage: EveryoneHISTORY OF SUFFERINGThe Mets seem the obvious pick here. Last year’s collapse still resonates, especially as they prepare to battle the same team that blew by them last September. But the Mets still have ’86 and ’69, not to mention a much shorter history than Philly does. Meanwhile, the Phillies have those 10,000-plus losses staring them in the face, plus a trophy case that’s jarringly empty save for 1980. Add the overall gestalt of the suffering Philly fan, and this one swings further down I-95.Advantage: PhilliesVERDICTThe Mets held a two-game lead heading into last night’s games. But that’s peanuts compared to the bulge they held late last summer.Moreover, the Phillies have a huge bullpen edge. The “I’ll blow one lead, you blow the other” trade-off from last month notwithstanding, Romero, Durbin, Lidge, and company are a much better bet to turn this weekend’s series, not to mention the rest of September, into six- or seven-inning affairs for their team. Meanwhile, the Mets must make do with a collection of question marks until (if?) Billy Wagner returns to form.That’s enough to make this race a toss-up, with the potential for some major September drama.Advantage: Anyone’s guessMr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2.

Phillies Versus Mets: The Tale of the Tape

Phillies Versus Mets: The Tale of the Tape

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