Every season, we watch former heroes continue their decline well past stardom and current heroes stumble just enough for us to announce the beginning of the end. It sounds depressing, but we temper this by enjoying surprise seasons that augur great things to come from relative unknowns.

It’s that last bit we want to focus on today, as we take a look at four players who are primed for big improvements in 2006. In each case, the player in question has a short history of injury or ineffectiveness – or both – and there are enough indicators in place to suggest that they’ve put their struggles behind them for good.

We’ll take a look at what Baseball Prospectus’s projection system (called PECOTA) thinks about each player’s chances in 2006. Reference will also be made to a Baseball Prospectus metric called Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which measures how many runs a player contributes over what a freely available Triple-A player would contribute given the same amount of playing time.

DAVID DEJESUS
CF, KANSAS CITY ROYALS

The Royals probably couldn’t have afforded to retain Carlos Beltran after the 2004 season even if they wanted to, but they were less timid about trading him because they had a ready replacement in DeJesus. The Brooklyn native posted a .287 AVG /.360 OBA /.402 SLG line after Beltran departed in 2004 with solid defense in center, helping Royals fans forget about their departed star. DeJesus was expected to build on that in 2005, which he did, posting a .293/.359/.445 line, though he battled numerous injuries, the last of which, a sprained shoulder, ended his season on August 27th.

For comparison’s sake, his predecessor struggled in his first season with the Mets, posting a VORP of just 17.6. DeJesus, meanwhile, managed a VORP of 25.2 in 128 fewer plate appearances despite a season’s worth of nagging injuries. If DeJesus can play that well while hobbled by various injuries, it’s worth getting excited about what he can do once he’s finally healthy.PECOTA expects DeJesus to take another step forward in the power department, foreseeing a .288/.366/.453 line, though some of his counting stats (runs, RBI) may not look impressive since he plays at the top of a weak Royals lineup.

JUSTIN MORNEAU
1B, MINNESOTA TWINS

Like DeJesus, Morneau battled injuries last season; unlike DeJesus, Morneau wasn’t all that effective during his time on the active roster despite a reputation for playing through pain.A highly touted young hitter out of Canada, Morneau tore up Triple-A pitching in 2004,but was blocked by all-glove,nohit first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz in Minnesota. After Mientkiewicz’s trade to Boston, the job was finally handed to Morneau, and he finished 2004 hitting .271/.340/.536, tantalizing fans and analysts with what was to come.

But 2005 was a complete disaster. Beginning with the 2004 off-season, he had chicken pox, had his appendix removed, had a second procedure to remove a cyst that had formed near the appendectomy scar, suffered from a bone spur in his elbow, was beaned, and developed pneumonia. He quite literally limped and wheezed his way to a disappointing .239/.304/.437 line last season, which is inadequate for a first baseman.

But 2006 should be the season everyone has been expecting.PECOTA is conservative,projecting just a .271/.345/.508 line with 28 home runs from him; Morneau’s a good bet to beat that,as he’s recovered from all his various maladies and put on a good performance with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic.His history of terrific production is too long to end with merely modest major league results.

BRANDON WEBB
SP, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

After a promising rookie year in 2003, Webb had terrible difficulty finding the strike zone in his sophomore campaign. His walks per nine innings jumped from 2.8 to 4.6, and all indications were that this – coupled with a declining strikeout rate in that same span – would create an implosion in 2005. It didn’t happen. Webb dropped his walk rate to 1.9 per nine innings and has become the de facto ace of a young and improving Arizona squad. In 2004, Webb’s VORP of 22.2 ranked him 105th in the majors, so when he climbed to no. 20 with a rating of 44.6 last year, it set the table for a huge breakout this season.

PECOTA doesn’t think all that improvement will stick, projecting a return to his pre-2005 walk rate of around three batters per nine innings, contributing to his 2006 projected VORP of 39.8.

But PECOTA hasn’t properly accounted for the addition of Orlando Hudson in its projection of Webb. Hudson, perhaps the premier defensive second baseman in the game, arrives in Arizona after playing the last four years in Toronto. Webb, one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in the game, stands to take particular advantage of his presence.

Our fielding metrics also suggest that Craig Counsell,last year’s D’back second baseman,would have made a worthy NL Gold Glove choice. Counsell has shifted over to shortstop to make room for Hudson, providing Webb with a stronger upthe-middle defense than he’s ever had.A good sleeper Cy Young candidate.

DANIEL CABRERA
SP, BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Even before Cabrera’s performance in the World Baseball Classic (particularly against Venezuela), he was tagged as a breakout candidate, and with good reason. After a rookie year in 2004 that saw him walk many more batters than he struck out – never a good sign with any pitcher, let alone a young one – he was able to harness his electric stuff in 2005. True, his walk rate dropped from “just” 5.2 per nine innings to an even 5, but he raised his strikeout rate from a sub-average 4.3 batters per nine innings to an excellent 8.4.This is much more in line with how he performed in the minors, where he struck out more than 9 batters per nine innings.

Still, the propensity for wildness – coupled with 11 unearned runs last year that help downgrade his raw 2005 numbers a bit – has many thinking that 2006 won’t see much of an improvement. PECOTA is no different, but PECOTA didn’t factor new pitching coach Leo Mazzone into its projection. Cabrera’s raw stuff is undeniable: he throws a fastball in the mid 90s, and flashes a hard slider. Despite his wildness, he’s managed to keep the ball in the park with a better-than-average home run rate during his career.Add all this up,and there’s plenty to work with for Mazzone, who has had success coaching many lesser pitchers in the past.

Mr. Erhardt is a regular writer for Baseball Prospectus. Fore more state-ofthe-art commentary and information, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.