Seattle is the only NFC team with a playoff spot clinched, leaving eight teams fighting for five spots. While Giants fans watch Big Blue take on Washington, they’ll keep one eye on the scoreboard to track these other important NFC games.

DALLAS COWBOYS (8-6) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-4)
(Saturday, 1 p.m.)

Four weeks ago, these two teams had the same 7-3 record. Now the Panthers can clinch a playoff spot with a win, while Dallas comes close to elimination with a loss. But even before December began, the Cowboys and Panthers were headed in different directions. Just look, for example, at each team’s defense against the passing game.

After six weeks, Carolina’s pass defense ranked 12th according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average system (DVOA), which breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. Since Carolina’s Week 7 bye, only the Giants and Bears have done a better job stopping the pass. The Panthers have gone from allowing 6.3 net yards per pass in their first six games to 4.5 net yards per pass in their last eight.

Dallas had its bye week after eight games. At that point, the Cowboys had allowed just 5.4 net yards per pass, and ranked seventh in pass defense DVOA. But in the six games since, Dallas is allowing 6.3 net yards per pass, and DVOA ranks them 24th.

The downward trend is bad, but even worse for the Cowboys is the way their pass defense matches up against the Panthers. DVOA ranks Dallas as the best defense in the league on passes to no. 2 receivers, but just 23rd in defending no. 1 receivers. These receivers average 13.9 yards per reception leaguewide, but 17.9 yards per reception against Dallas.

And Carolina, of course, depends more on a single receiver than any other team in the league. Steve Smith, who leads the league with 93 catches and 1,414 yards, is the target of 35% of Carolina passes and has caught 68% of them. The only starting NFC receiver who has caught a higher percentage of passes is Seattle’s Bobby Engram.

Dallas depends on a more diversified passing attack, but like the defense, it has faded as the season has progressed. The Cowboys’ offense ranked fifth in passing DVOA during the first six weeks of the season (7.0 net yards per pass), but is 17th since (5.2 net yards per pass). Carolina is excellent at covering wide receivers, though they have a weakness against tight ends that Dallas can exploit with Jason Witten.

What about the running game? Carolina gains just 3.4 yards per carry, 31st in the league, but allows just 3.6 yards per carry, third in the league. Dallas is mediocre both at running the ball and stopping the run. Given those facts, it’s hard to see the run mattering either way.

With last week’s 35-7 blowout, Washington dismantled the Cowboys and the dreams of their fans as well. Carolina should take care of any leftover demolition work on Saturday.

ATLANTA FALCONS (8-6) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-5)
(Saturday, 1 p.m.)

This is the second game between Carolina’s rivals for the NFC South title. Tampa Bay won the first game on the road 30-27, thanks to a Matt Bryant field goal in the final minute. Both teams are coming off dismal road losses in the cold, but those games won’t have much bearing on the result in tropical Tampa.

Tampa rookie Cadillac Williams, for example, ran for just 23 yards on 14 carries against New England last week. In the previous four games, however, Williams had 408 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. That includes 116 yards on just 19 carries when these two teams first met, with 83 of those yards coming where Atlanta is weakest: straight up the middle. The Falcons allow 4.9 yards on the average carry up the middle, worse than every team except the Saints.

Atlanta also had trouble running last week, but that was expected against the league’s top run defense, Chicago. Tampa Bay is ranked third in DVOA run defense, but Atlanta’s running backs did well against them in the first meeting: 82 yards for Warrick Dunn and 51 for T.J. Duckett.

Despite these runs, Atlanta deviated significantly from its usual offensive patterns in the first matchup. Quarterback Michael Vick threw for 306 yards, 142 more than his per-game average. Yet Vick gained just 17 yards on the ground, his lowest total of the season. Sore ribs may limit his mobility again this week.

In the other oddity of that first meeting, the Falcons kept Tampa’s star receiver, Joey Galloway, without a catch on five possible passes. This was one of only two games this season in which Galloway failed to catch at least four passes, and one of only five games in which he did not gain at least 75 yards.

A second shutdown of Galloway is unlikely; neither is a second 300-yard game for Michael Vick. Atlanta’s best hope is for continued success on the ground and a strong pass rush to sack Tampa quarterback Chris Simms or harass him into throwing interceptions. If Tampa’s offensive line looks as bad as it did last week, that won’t be difficult.

But the Falcons desperately need an early turnover, because their run-oriented offense isn’t built for comebacks. Atlanta hasn’t won a game all year in which it was losing at some point in the second half. It also has not won a game all year in which its opponent came into the week with a winning record. It’s hard to see this being the first.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.