Possible Bracket Busters Stake Their Claims

Our report on Old Dominion and its chances to make the NCAA Tournament field elicited some e-mails from fans of other so-called mid-major schools, all asking the same question:Do their schools have a shot?The quick answer is yes. In fact, given the decline of some of the power conferences (notably the Southeastern Conference), this could well be the year of the mid-major. For the last six years, the SEC has commanded one automatic bid and five at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. This season, the SEC will be hard-pressed to earn four spots, meaning two could be available for deserving mid-majors that don’t win their conference tournaments.The same situation exists in the Big Ten, where only Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan State have done enough to guarantee a tournament invitation. Again, should only three or perhaps four Big Ten teams earn bids, that leaves a couple of more for deserving mid-majors.In assessing the list of candidates to fill those slots, it isn’t even necessary to include Gonzaga or Pacific, two West Coast schools currently residing in the Top 25. Gonzaga, which has been a fixture in the major polls the last couple of seasons, has such a history of tournament upsets that it has shaken free from its mid-major moniker and has earned its bid regardless of what happens in the West Coast Conference Tournament.Pacific (21-2), which has won 19 straight games, clinched the Big West regular-season championship Wednesday night and can survive a stumble in the conference tournament. The Tigers, with their 11-1 road record, figure to get a fair look from the committee after what happened to the Big West last year, when Utah State was left out of the Dance despite its 25-3 record. The NCAA isn’t likely to pass up a good Big West team two years in a row, given its stated commitment to granting mid-majors every consideration.More deserving candidates will emerge from tomorrow’s Bracket Buster Saturday, an ESPN-inspired event that pits mid-major teams from around the country in televised games that theoretically allow them to state their case to the committee. Though it’s debatable how much one game can help, there are nevertheless some intriguing matchups on Saturday:SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT KENT STATESouthern Illinois isn’t far off from the special category into which Gonazga has ascended – the upper-major, if you will – having pulled off some tournament upsets in recent years.Boasting a Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) of 16, SIU (20-6)has just about secured an NCAA bid, even if it fails to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Still, at just 6-6 versus RPI Top 100 teams and without a victory over an RPI Top 50 team, the Salukis would love to win on Saturday.With six losses in the Mid-American Conference, Kent State probably won’t derive much benefit from this game, even if it wins.WICHITA STATE AT MIAMI-OHIOThis game means a lot more to Miami (15-6, RPI 25), which plays in the MAC, a good league that has nevertheless been limited to one NCAA bid each of the last five years. The MAC’s balance has doomed it come Selection Sunday; with so many teams beating up on one another in league play, it’s been difficult for a potential at-large team to emerge.Wichita State’s NCAA chances, conversely, are on a lot firmer foundation, despite two recent losses to Bradley and Creighton. The Shockers (20-6,RPI 39) come from the Missouri Valley Conference, which, unlike the MAC, has consistently earned multiple NCAA bids in recent years.Like Southern Illinois, Wichita State – which owns a 4-2 record over RPI Top 100 teams – appears to have separated itself from the pack in the MVC and could probably survive an early upset in the league tournament. A win on Saturday will give the Shockers another noteworthy accomplishment for their NCAA resume.VERMONT AT NEVADAWith a pair of marquee players in forward Taylor Coppenrath and guard T.J. Sorrentine, Vermont is just the sort of team that could pull an upset or two in March, as its 4-3 record over RPI Top 100 teams (and narrow loss at Kansas) would suggest. Yet despite a surprisingly solid RPI of 14, the Catamounts need a win over a good team, considering the remainder of their America East schedule matches them against teams in the lower regions of the RPI.Here’s a factor in Vermont’s favor: The America East Tournament final is played on the homecourt of the highest remaining seed. And the Catamounts, with a 14-1 league record, have the top seed locked up.Nevada (18-5, RPI 29) currently sits atop the Western Athletic Conference standings, and has helped its cause with a 6-4 record against RPI Top 100 teams. The Wolfpack are in good shape at the moment, but they finish the regular season with three straight road games, including ones at Fresno State and Hawaii.All told, Bracket Buster Saturday will probably shed some light on what we can expect the field of 64 to look like. Then again, things change every day. Just ask Old Dominion, which, after a loss at George Mason on Wednesday, has a more slippery spot on the bubble than it did just a day before.Mr. Dortch is the editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook.

Possible Bracket Busters Stake Their Claims

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