Last year, standing in the paddock at Churchill Downs, one among my circle was holding a win ticket on 50-1 shot Giacomo. His young daughter had picked the horse, which was enough for me. And after all, it makes sense: little girls love horses. I asked my 4-year-old neighbor Raina to give me her picks for the Derby, the Preakness, and the Belmont Stakes. We’re betting an imaginary $5 to win, place, and show on each, and tallying up the funny money at the end of the Triple Crown. So far, I’m winning – but not by much.

RAINA’S PICKS

Win………………….Greeley’s Legacy
Place ……………………Brother Derek
Show………………..Platinum Couple

MAX’S PICKS

Win ………………………………Barbaro
Place ……………………Brother Derek
Show…………………………Bernardini

Raina didn’t cash any tickets at the Derby, so she’s down $15 going into this race.

I had Barbaro to show in the Derby. Since I made a $5 bet, I broke even. I’m not above gloating.

The Derby is for outlandish longshot gambling. The Preakness, to my mind, is not. Here’s why: In the last 22 years, 21 Preakness winners ran in that year’s Derby. The reason for this is simple: The best horses in the country run in the Derby. Man o’ War didn’t run in Kentucky because his owner thought it was too far out west. But that was a long, long time ago. The newcomers here are hoping to capitalize on defections or grab a piece of the pie.

Only five horses have come out of the Derby undefeated before Barbaro, and only three of them went on to run in the Preakness. Those three won it (Smarty Jones, Seattle Slew, and Majestic Prince).

It’s not that Barbaro might beat the good horses in this race; it’s that he just did. In other words, all signs point to Barbaro. Still, there is money to be made and lost.

While I believe the likelihood of one of the top horses here winning the race to be very high, I don’t believe, simply as an odds proposition, that the likelihood of a Barbaro/Sweetnorthernsaint/Brother Derek trifecta is very high. So capitalize on that: pick one of them to throw out and wheel a couple of trifectas keying the two you kept. For instance, lets say you have no faith that Barbaro can come back and hit the board tomorrow. Set up one trifecta with Sweetnorthernsaint keyed to win it, then box the other two slots with Brother Derek and whichever of the longshots you like. Then do another with Brother Derek on top and the others boxed below him. Because there is such a big spike in the morning line after you get past Sweetnorthernsaint, you stand to make (I mean lose) a good bit of money.