Pundits Warm Up A Cool Autumn
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
The World Series has barely begun, several teams lack general managers, but the Hot Stove pundits are already doing their speculative best, floating rumors of possible trade action and free-agent signings that aren’t any less fanciful than those offered by Bernie from Queens to the jaded hosts at WFAN.
What often is missing from both is objectivity and analysis. As another columnist wrote last week in response to Judith Miller’s assertion that if a reporter’s sources are wrong then the reporter is wrong, journalism is not stenography. Last week, a nationally known columnist reported that a big part of Colorado’s off-season strategy would be to sign Elmer Dessens away from the Dodgers. This lead balloon floated by without comment, as if it could actually have any meaning beyond serving as an indictment of a bankrupt management. There is too much a focus on acquiring name players but rarely an examination of the concepts behind them.
There is very little focus on what teams actually need, even in New York. The Yankees must pony up for Torii Hunter, it has been written, even if it costs them their top pitching prospect, Phillip Hughes. Catcher Bengie Molina is the man the Mets need to replace Mike Piazza, him or Kenji Jojima. Yet in the latter case, the Mets’ winter season cannot be focused on replacing Piazza, even if a new catcher is a necessity (if only Justin Huber hadn’t been dumped on the Royals for Jose Bautista back in July, 2004, in one of the more inexplicable deals in team history).The Mets’ needs are broader than that, however. With an overall offense that ranked in the middle of the National League, the team needs certainty from first base, second base, shortstop, catcher, center field, and right field.
Some of these positions may seem set – Jose Reyes at short, for example, or Carlos Beltran in center field. Certainly in the case of the latter, the Mets could get good odds on the outfielder returning to form in 2006.However,if the Mets can consider trading Beltran, who seemed uncomfortable in New York, while his value is at its lowest, they can also consider trading Reyes while his value is highest; this younger, speedier version of utility man Neifi Perez could bring the Mets the multiple players they need to staff out the rest of the lineup at very little cost to themselves. The Mets also have potential in-house solutions for their infield in Jeff Keppinger, and the outfield in Lastings Milledge.
Jojima is an unknown quantity, while Molina has every likelihood of regressing badly upon reaching New York; he’s an injury prone 31-year-old who just had his best offensive season, one based largely around batting average. Very few players are capable of hitting .295 in Shea Stadium, and 120 games of Molina batting .270 would be a detriment to the team. Let it be said here that it is extremely unlikely that Molina will do more than that, and as a potentially three- or four-year contract rolls on, it is almost certain that he will do worse before he is finished.
If the team’s resources are finite – and a season in which Jose Offerman and Gerald Williams were the best the team could do for replacements certainly suggests that they are not prepared to spend – the Mets need to diffuse their spending throughout the lineup rather than reward one catcher for an out-of-place season. This does not even address the pitching, where the Mets are almost certain to take a step backward next season.
Omar Minaya has his work cut out for him. This season featured a particularly difficult trading environment, but he hung Willie Randolph and company out to dry in a winnable division by not giving the team any real upgrades during the season. He got a pass then, and he’ll probably continue to get a pass if a Beltran-for-Manny Ramirez deal takes place, even if such a deal would not address the problems of overall depth from which the team suffers. The Mets require a diffuse rebuilding rather than a fix at one position.
The Yankees have fewer problems – assuming Hideki Matsui is resigned they need a few changes, including a pure hitter who can take over at designated hitter for Jason Giambi on most days. Giambi has more than proved that his “I hit when I’m a first baseman/I’m more of a spectator when I DH” dichotomy is an insoluble part of his psyche (in 2005, Giambi batted .319 AVG/.471 OBA/.664 SLG when playing the field, .211/.408/.371 when keeping John Flaherty company in the dugout – broadly consistent with his career figures).What this should mean is that Giambi will be the everyday first baseman going into 2006, with someone else, perhaps Gary Sheffield if a good right fielder is available, taking his place as the designated hitter. Sheffield has long been on record as enjoying being a hitter/non-combatant, and his fielding is not an asset to the team.
Unfortunately, the early talk is that the Yankees might go with another Tino Martinez-model superannuated glove-first first sacker on the order of J.T. Snow, who might push Giambi to the dugout, thereby not only halving his production but also crippling the lineup with his own lack of production. This would be the 2006 version of the Tony Womack signing, and the very rumor should have been greeted by gasps of incredulity, but there was only nodding approval – as if Giambi could ever both enough plays at first base as to render his bat not worth having.
Another common misconception is that the Yankees are beggars, not choosers, in the center field department. In fact, there are a good number of center fielders available this offseason, from Randy Winn to Torii Hunter. All are broadly in the same age and productivity bracket, which means that it’s not necessary to pay a large premium for any of them. All, unfortunately, are stopgaps until the Yankees can find something better. The situation calls for a tempered approach, both from the team and from the punditocracy.
Mr. Goldman is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.