Many commentators have lamented that the 2005 non-waiver trade deadline day will be remembered more for what didn’t happen than for what did. There’s some truth to this. But how did so much manage to not happen?

While both Central divisions seem locked up, every other division in baseball is up for grabs. If we add the wild card to the mix, there are really just six teams that can confidently request October tee times. With so few teams in true “seller” mode, the lack of activity was hardly surprising, especially considering that what the remaining teams were selling wasn’t anything you’d really want to buy. It’s also worth remembering that several teams expected to get key players back from the DL around the trade deadline, meaning they were adding quality players without giving anything up; trading marquee names became less pressing for a few organizations.

To evaluate the deals that did get done, we’ll use a Baseball Prospectus statistic called Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which measures the number of runs a player produces over the number that a freely available player (like Bubba Crosby) would produce given the same number of at-bats. For pitchers, it measures the number of runs prevented rather than produced. We’ll also use our PECOTA projection system, which projects a player’s performance based on factors like position, age, weight, and his previous production.

Just 5 1/2 games back in the NL East (2 back in the NL wild card), the Florida Marlins initially tried to trade starter A.J. Burnett, a free agent at the end of the year. They elected to keep him and his 26.9 VORP in 139 IP. Instead, they picked up veteran lefty Ron Villone from the Mariners. Villone’s season in Seattle was a mixed bag: He had a VORP of 12.0 (placing him in the upper tier among relievers, who throw far fewer innings and thus tend to record lower VORP scores), and had terrific K/9 numbers (9.15), but also walked 5.1 men per nine innings. Villone moves to a good pitcher’s park in Florida, and will leave the lefty specialist role behind to take on the role of swingman. It’s a decent pickup for the Marlins, though it did cost them one of their top prospects, pitcher Yorman Bazardo.

The Atlanta Braves successfully used their stocked farm system to stay in contention while their star performers are out with injuries. Now, with Tim Hudson back in the rotation, Chipper Jones back in the batting order, and a collection of role-playing rookies that puts some starting lineups to shame, the Braves only had to tinker with the roster and allow the DL to stock their starting lineup with more useful players. They added Tigers closer Kyle Farnsworth, who becomes Chris Reitsma’s primary setup man. Farnsworth was having a terrific season in Detroit (15.5 VORP), striking out 11.6 men per nine innings, allowing only 6 H/9 and walking 4.22/9. Even in spacious Comerica Park, his .21 HR/9 is phenomenal, and he’s now paired with the right pitching coach (Leo Mazzone) to try and maintain that success.

The Chicago Cubs had a similar predicament as the Braves. Kerry Wood rejoins the pitching staff, Scott Williamson is ready to debut, and Nomar Garciaparra is finishing up a minor league rehab assignment. Adding those three players without surrendering any talent in return meant that they could add only one and be primed for a playoff run. Though Matt Lawton doesn’t bring the sex appeal of a Burnett or Manny Ramirez, he came over from Pittsburgh with impressive numbers: .273 BA/.383 OBA/.433 SLG overall, and .292/.403/.470 against righties. In a lineup stocked with righthanded power but woefully low on lefty swings and on-base ability, Lawton fits in perfectly at the top of the Cubs’ lineup. The deal only cost Chicago Jody Gerut, making it perhaps the steal of the deadline.

With Trot Nixon possibly missing the rest of the regular season, the Red Sox made a move to address their depleted outfield – eschewing the step of further weakening it had they traded Ramirez. The Sox picked up Arizona outfielder Jose Cruz Jr., a switch-hitter who won a Gold Glove with the Giants in 2003. Cruz has struggled mightily this year, largely due to a back injury he sustained in a charity golf tournament. His line of .213/.347/.436 (VORP of 7.7) isn’t that far below the .252/.345/.443 line PECOTA projected he’d put up. He’ll fill in while Nixon’s injured, but this isn’t the type of move that clinches the AL East for the Sox. It is the type of move that keeps Gabe Kapler mostly on the bench. Cruz only has to be better than Kapler to make this trade work – he should meet that modest goal.

Two other division leaders made minor acquisitions. The Chicago White Sox acquired utility man Geoff Blum from San Diego, nabbing a somewhat useful utility player to make incumbent third baseman Joe Crede (.256/.309/.450, 8.9 VORP) sweat a little. Crede carries a defensive reputation, but with Frank Thomas now likely out for the rest of the season, the Sox will need runs, and lots of them. Blum will likely be a platoon mate for Crede, who doesn’t hit righties particularly well. The Padres, meanwhile, picked up a lefty reliever for Blum, and added Miguel Olivo from the Mariners. Olivo and newly-acquired David Ross form a new catching tandem with Ramon Hernandez out for the season. Both have struggled to hit this year.

Some players, like new Giant Randy Winn and new Oriole Eric Byrnes, aren’t the kinds of players who will help their teams make a playoff push. Byrnes, for example, is hitting .255/.327/.439 (VORP of 8.9). By himself, he’s not enough to help the nosediving Orioles regain their footing in the AL East. Winn gets added to the Giants’ outfield, where he’ll play all three positions. His PECOTA projection of .275/.336/.419 is almost a dead match for his actual 2005 line of .275/.344/.391 (13.2 VORP in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field). Though Winn should help the Giants, the loss of Barry Bonds for the year and the dearth of talent elsewhere on the roster make them long shots to win even the worst division in baseball.

There will likely be more trade activity during the next month, as more teams fall further back from contention. It’s also worth remembering that St. Louis outfielder Larry Walker was traded on August 6 of 2004 – so an impact deal or two isn’t out of the question during baseball’s dog days.

Mr. Erhardt is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.