Race for AL East Neck-and-Neck After April

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With the first Yankees-Red Sox game of the season in the books and the second just hours away, no one can know just what the battle will reveal about the contestants. Yet, with April now in the past, we know quite a bit about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team:


The Yankees have a terrific offense, the Red Sox just so-so. Entering last night’s action, the Yankees had scored 144 runs, the Red Sox just 117, though the difference in runs per game (6.26 vs. 4.68) is somewhat misleading given the number of blowouts the Yankees have won.


The Bombers are bound to see some of their hottest hitters cool off – Derek Jeter won’t bat .398 on the season, Jason Giambi won’t hit 65 homers – but this could be a 1,000-run offense. It would be a near certainty, in fact, if the Yankees could find a solid bat to take DH and outfield reserve time away from Bernie Williams.


Conversely, the Red Sox should see some improvement in some of their slumping hitters. Manny Ramirez has only recently emerged from his annual why-didn’t-they-trade-me-THIS-time slow start. Second baseman Mark Loretta has hit .300 in three of the last four years, but so far this season he’s been an out machine. He’s almost certain to improve on his current .218 AVG/.282 OBA/.297 SLG rates. Jason Varitek is slugging only .375 and that too will improve as he hits a few home runs.


The only player who may continue to drag the Sox down is shortstop Alex Gonzalez. In addition, the injury to center fielder Coco Crisp and some early defensive miscues have led to some wasted plate appearances by the punchless Willie Harris,a momentary mistake now corrected in favor of Wily Mo Pena.


Still, because of the players the Red Sox have used this year, their overall power potential is limited. The team batting average will rise, but Loretta, Kevin Youkilis, and friends will not become home run hitters.


The Yankees have better pitching depth. This didn’t seem to be the case at the beginning of the year, but with David Wells out (perhaps for good), Matt Clement often ineffective, John Papelbon forced into the closer’s role, and top prospect Jon Lester being thumped at Pawtucket, the Sox don’t have a lot of room for error.


The trade of Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Pena, at the time a good example of trading from strength, has now been retroactively classified as an act of hubris.


Meanwhile, the Yankees have gotten better-than-expected results from their pitching staff. Two hurlers have stood out with unexpected performances. Mike Mussina, experiencing a renaissance with his reinvented changeup, has turned in six quality starts in six tries. Scott Proctor has allowed Joe Torre to stretch the bullpen, saving more experienced relievers Ron Villone, Mike Myers, and Kyle Farnsworth for matchups in the late innings.


Given the inconsistencies of Randy Johnson and the always-questionable status of Jaret Wright, the Yankees are probably a starter short of being protected from injuries or even ending the divisional race before it starts. The returning Aaron Small or Carl Pavano might be that pitcher.


The Red Sox are more decisive decision-makers than the Yankees. Part of good management is recognizing when things aren’t working and then being able to make positive changes. Sox skipper Terry Francona gave closer Keith Foulke exactly one game’s worth of rope to hang himself with before making Papelbon his closer. That decision saved the Red Sox from the bullpen uncertainty that undermined them in two of the last three seasons.


While the decision had ramifications for the starting rotation – the Sox could use Papelbon there, too – Francona correctly recognized that given the team’s history with late-inning reversals (and the inevitable media reaction) he couldn’t take a month to sort the problem out. More recently, the injury to Crisp encouraged Francona to emphasize Harris’s speed and defense over Pena’s bat. Harris proved to be a drag on an offense that was already struggling. Pena was given a chance to hit and play an adequate center field, and he obliged by going 5-for-17 (.294) with a home run after being returned to the lineup.


In contrast, it’s unclear how long the Yankees will pretend that Williams’s days of greatness are over, or that Miguel Cairo has an offensive contribution to make to the team. This in itself will not be enough to prevent the Yankees from making a run at the division title, but it is a weakness when it comes to competing against the contenders around the league and also exposes them to injury depletion.


There are very few players who could minimize the loss of a Gary Sheffield, but there are many who could come closer to easing the pain than Williams can at this late stage of his career.


Last September, Torre’s affinity for veterans led him to waste regular playing time on Ruben Sierra (Sierra rewarded him with a painful .148/.188/.197 performance in full time play). This year, it may prevent the Yankees from shielding themselves from a significant offensive drop-off in case of injury. The offense is deep, but any team that plays a replacement-level player for an extended period of time suffers disproportionately – as the Yankees learned during the ill-fated “Tony Womack Era.”


The Red Sox are better positioned to withstand an injury. This is a corollary to the last point. With Hee Seop Choi pounding the ball at Triple-A, Adam Stern shaking off a year of Rule 5 rust, Dustin Pedroia tuning up to render Gonzalez redundant, and the expected return of Crisp putting Pena back in reserve, the big league roster has some protection.


Add pitchers Craig Hansen, Abe Alvarez, and Lester in reserve, and it’s clear that Boston still has one hand behind its back. The Yankees may choose to ignore Carlos Pena, and their one truly impressive pitching prospect, Phillip Hughes, was just promoted to Double-A.


In short, for now Red Sox vs. Yankees is all Yankees, but the grueling marathon that is the baseball season could easily swing things in the other direction.



Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for www.yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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