There’s no truth to the rumor that the iconic pirate from the Oakland Raiders logo will now have an afro emerging from his helmet. In every other way, though, Randy Moss looks like a perfect fit as the newest member of the Raiders – weird, wild, and fast as a bullet train.

Because of NFL rules, the reported trade of Moss to Oakland for the seventh pick in the 2005 draft, an additional 2006 draft pick, and an unidentified veteran player, probably linebacker Napoleon Harris, cannot be made official until March 2. Raider fans, however, are already ecstatic about the arrival of one of the game’s fastest and strongest wide receivers.

They’d best curb their enthusiasm. If history is any guide, the Raiders will be sorely disappointed in their hope that Moss will dramatically transform the Oakland passing game as Terrell Owens did in Philadelphia a year ago.

Owens’s effect in 2004 was the exception, not the rule; he improved the Philadelphia passing game to an extent unprecedented in NFL history. Since passing rules were liberalized in 1978, 28 different receivers have switched teams after having either 1,000 yards the previous year or a combined 2,000 yards in the previous two years. Only three – Owens, Irving Fryar, and Tony Martin – had 1,000 yards receiving again the following year for a team that won at least 10 games, and Martin was the only one to help turn a losing team into a Super Bowl contender. The 28 teams that added these top receivers went from an average of 8.5 wins to an average of 8.4 wins the following year.

The Raiders expect Moss to lead them out of the wilderness of two straight last-place seasons. But unlike Owens, Moss is not joining an All-Pro quarterback whose main obstacle to success has always been a subpar group of receivers. Oakland quarterback Kerry Collins, though he can throw deep, is erratic and past his prime, and the Raiders have no running game.

Despite all the talk about how Moss will help the Raiders revive their classic vertical passing game, his biggest impact may come when the passes are much shorter. Thanks to his height and leaping ability, Moss caught nine of the 21 passes tossed to him in the red zone for touchdowns in 2004; Oakland wide receivers scored on only eight of 39 passes in the red zone. In this respect, Moss may represent a valuable upgrade, but his red-zone performance could well diminish with Collins, and not Daunte Culpepper, throwing to him.

What’s more, Moss cost the Raiders the first-round pick that could have been used to help fix the team’s real weakness – an underperforming secondary that ranked 31st in the league in yardage allowed per pass. Oakland’s attempt to fix the defense now depends, paradoxically enough, on getting rid of one of its best defensive players, disgruntled cornerback Charles Woodson.

The Raiders put the franchise tag on Woodson to keep him from leaving as a free agent, but he’s clearly on the trading block. The Raiders hope a Woodson trade will yield draft picks to replace the ones sent to Minnesota, while taking Woodson off the budget to free up more money to sign veteran free agents for the secondary.

Wait, there’s more. The Raiders don’t just have holes in the secondary; they also need linebackers, defensive linemen younger than Warren Sapp, and a running back. Moss and his antics will bring excitement to Oakland, but don’t expect him to deliver a playoff run.

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Of course, it’s a lot better to add Randy Moss to your team than to lose him, and the Vikings now face life without the best receiver in franchise history. While the consensus in football circles is that Moss’s attitude had become an intolerable problem in Minnesota, they wouldn’t have traded their game breaking receiver if they did not feel the team could survive the loss.

Moss leaves plenty of talented players behind, and the Vikings can use the Raiders’ first-round pick to acquire a talented receiver like USC’s Mike Williams. The trade clearly was made easier thanks to a breakout year in 2004 from Nate Burleson. The second-year receiver assumed Moss’s position as the Vikings’ no. 1 wideout after Moss pulled a hamstring in Week 6 against New Orleans, racking up 1,006 yards receiving and nine touchdowns on the season.

According to Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, a Football Outsiders formula that measures receiver value by comparing passes to the league-average performance by situation, Burleson was the sixth-most valuable receiver in the NFL in 2004. (Moss, who ranked second in 2003,was 22nd in 2004 despite missing five games.)

Burleson’s performance was somewhat deceptive, though. He made a name for himself in Moss’s absence not because he was playing better but because Culpepper was throwing more passes his way. His performance per pass didn’t dramatically improve until Moss re-entered the lineup in Week 12 and drew double teams and top cornerbacks away from his teammate.

Burleson averaged 16.9 yards per catch during the first five games of 2004, only 10.2 yards per catch during the five games Moss missed, and then 19.4 yards per catch in six regular season games after Moss returned to the lineup. The same trend occurred for Minnesota’s passing game as a whole, which averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt over the first give games, 6.0 without Moss, and 7.7 after he returned.

Minnesota is counting on further development from Burleson, but unless he becomes as good as Moss, their passing game will suffer next year. Of the 28 aforementioned teams that lost those top receivers, 20 went 6-10 or better the year before the receiver left. But only four of those teams won more games the year after the receiver was gone. All told, the negative effect of this trade on the Vikings may be bigger than the positive effect on the Raiders.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.