The Seahawks had won their first three games of 2004 and were leading the Rams 27-10 with nine minutes left in Week 5 when their defense abruptly collapsed. The Rams scored 23 unanswered points, and the Seahawks have been emotionally scarred ever since. When they faced the Rams again in Week 9, they played their worst game of 2004, losing 23-12. Somehow they managed to get into the playoffs, only to face their worst nightmare again.

Seattle’s phobias aside, there is no way St. Louis should be in the playoffs. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, they have been the NFL’s third worst team this season, better than only Chicago and San Francisco. And yet, here they are, thanks to a few close wins and those two triumphs over Seattle.

WHEN ST. LOUIS HAS THE BALL

Last year’s 12-4 Rams wielded a great defense and a mediocre offense, in large part because the defense caused lots of turnovers while the offense gave the ball right back just as often. This year, Marc Bulger has improved from an interception every 24 passes to an interception every 35 passes, and from 7.2 yards/pass to 8.2 yards/pass. Remove the three games where Bulger was injured and backup Chris Chandler threw an interception roughly every three seconds, and the Rams’ offense improves from 12th in the league to sixth.

The other major improvement owes to the emergence of rookie Steven Jackson as Marshall Faulk’s rushing partner. It’s sad to see how much Faulk has declined, but the playoffs are no time for sentimentality, and Rams head coach Mike Martz must acknowledge that Jackson is the better player right now. Jackson was worth 25.2 points more than a replacement-level back on plays where he carried or caught the ball, while Faulk was worth only 5.6 points, despite 100 more plays.

Seattle looked like a strong defensive team in the season’s first three weeks, but the Rams’ big comeback exposed some major flaws. Free safety Ken Hamlin is supposed to be a hitter, but Steven Jackson ran him over. Strong safety Terreal Bierria is supposed to be good in coverage, but he gave up the Rams’ overtime touchdown.

The Seahawks then suffered a rash of injuries. They lost both starting outside linebackers, Chad Brown and Anthony Simmons, as well as their best backup, Tracy White, at midseason. Brown should be back at full health this week, which could be a major plus for Seattle. Ex-Rams defensive end Grant Wistrom also hopes to return from injury this weekend.

WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL

The numbers say this is where Seattle possesses a significant advantage, although the emotions involved in this game confuse the picture. While Seattle’s offense has declined slightly from last season, the Rams’ defense has completely imploded after the departure of coordinator Lovie Smith.

Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is considered one of the great disappointments of the 2004 season, but this is only true if you compare his performance with last season’s. He ranked as the NFL’s third-best quarterback according to our numbers in 2003; this season, he ranks 12th.

The Seahawks’ major problem this season involves third-down conversions, in large part due to an injury-riddled season for slot receiver Bobby Engram. The Seahawks are one of only two playoff teams whose offense is not in the top half of the league in third-down performance (Atlanta is the other).

Of course, the Rams’ defense is among the NFL’s worst at defending third downs. In fact, they’re terrible against any type of play on any down at any time. Last year, with Smith in command, they led the NFL with 46 takeaways – 24 interceptions and 22 fumble recoveries. This year, they ranked last with six interceptions and nine fumble recoveries.

The Rams are equally bad against the pass and the run, but their defensive line is especially vulnerable against the Seahawks’ running game. Seattle is the fifth-best team in the NFL running to the left, while St. Louis ranks 27th stopping runs in that direction. Seattle center Robbie Tobeck and the left side of the Seahawks’ line, guard Steve Hutchinson and tackle Walter Jones, should win their individual matchups easily.

Once running back Shaun Alexander barges into the Rams’ secondary, watch out. Alexander ranks fourth in the NFL in the percentage of his yards that have come on runs of over 10 yards this season, and the Rams rank 27th in preventing such long carries.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Poor special teams performance this season has cost the Rams more than twice as many points as any other NFL team. It is truly amazing that a team with so many fast players performs so abysmally on kick and punt returns. Seattle does not fare particularly well on special teams either, but “below average” should be good enough to grab a few yards of valuable field position against the Rams.

OUTLOOK

The weather could be a big factor in Seattle, where rain and snow are currently forecast for Saturday. The Rams play terribly outside – they lost their final five road games by a combined score of 173-70 – and now must contend with the fact that dome teams generally struggle when playing outside from November on.

The weather is against the Rams, their road record is against them, their defense is porous, and their special teams are the league’s worst. And yet, there are some games where analysis is trumped by emotion. This could be one of them.

The Pick: St. Louis

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith of Football Outsiders provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.