The race for the AL MVP is as open as it has ever been. No player stands out from his peers to claim the award. No player has clutched the media spotlight by single-handedly catapulting his team into a division lead. Only Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki is chasing any significant record.

At Baseball Prospectus, we have developed several statistics that take into account a player’s entire contribution over a season, attempting to remove extraneous factors like teammates and ballparks. One of the best is Value Over Replacement Player, which measures how many runs a player is worth over an easily acquired fringe player (such as Luis Sojo).VORP uses as components mainly individual statistics like on-base average and slugging average rather than team dependent ones like runs batted in.

VORP is a good way to assemble a group of the most deserving candidates for the AL MVP. In the chart below, the top nine players in the AL in VORP are listed along with their batting averages, OBA, and SLG. While each has played well, it’s difficult to determine who is truly the most valuable.

If you guessed the first name on our list, you should play the lottery more often. Detroit’s Carlos Guillen has been the surprise of the season thus far. The Mariners shopped Guillen all over the league last winter, eventually trading him to the Tigers for two forgettable players and replacing him with Rich Aurilia (since released).

Now a part of a dramatically improved Detroit team, Guillen is having a career year, complementing his .319 average with a top-10 SLG, a career high 20 home runs, and a top-20 OBA. Guillen has also played spectacular defense at the pivotal position of shortstop – by far the best glove work of his career. Still, he owes his slim lead in VORP to his playing time edge over Baltimore’s Melvin Mora, who is once again having an amazing season with hardly anyone noticing.

Despite missing significant time due to a sore hamstring, Mora has been valuable enough in the rest of his games to nearly lead the league in VORP. Mora has shown the over-the-fence power that was lacking last season, hitting 22 home runs so far this year. He’s amassed 33 doubles, good for eighth in the league. More importantly, Mora is leading the league in OBA by a wide margin and trails only Red Sox Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in SLG.

Third is 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada. Tejada is having a great season, but his high ranking on the VORP list also has a lot to do with his playing nearly every inning of every game. While he leads the league in RBI, Tejada owes much of that success to Mora, who is on base so often in front of him. If Mora batted behind Tejada, Mora might lead the league in RBI. That’s not to say that durability and steady production don’t count for a lot, but Tejada may be a half notch behind Guillen and Mora.

In fourth is Vladimir Guerrero, who has erased concerns about last season’s herniated disc and delivered all the Angels could have hoped when they signed him to one of last winter’s largest contracts. Guerrero is the best player on a successful team, a profile that makes him a press favorite at this point. But he plays one of the game’s least challenging defensive positions in right field and, with the exception of his strong but inaccurate arm, doesn’t play it particularly well.

Next up is 2001 MVP Ichiro Suzuki, who’s making a run at George Sisler’s single-season record of 257 hits. Other than that, however, there’s little to suggest that Ichiro is a true MVP. He lacks the power of a dominant player and, because he draws so few walks, his OBA is equal to Ramirez’s, who is hitting .316 to Suzuki’s .366. If no other candidate emerges from a contender and Ichiro manages to break Sisler’s record, he may steal the award, but he won’t truly be the most valuable player.

Placing sixth is Yankees right fielder Gary Sheffield, who is having nearly as good a year as Guerrero, with just a few more walks and slightly fewer hits. The voters may drop him down the list while thinking about the rest of the impressive Yankee lineup, but he’ll certainly be in the mix.

One of baseball’s best and most colorful players, Boston’s Ramirez is putting together another stellar season. This might be the year for the Red Sox left fielder, as he leads the league in home runs and SLG and is again among the league leaders in OBA. While Ramirez draws criticism for his defense, his performance has been passable and his massive offensive numbers more than make up for his occasional stumblings in the field.

If you haven’t heard about Cleveland’s Travis Hafner yet, you will soon. After a highly successful minor league career in the Texas organization, Hafner has led the Indians’ revived attack, placing among the league leaders in OBA, SLG, doubles, and home runs. Being a designated hitter, though, will only hurt his standing with voters.

Red Sox DH Ortiz has been his team’s second-best hitter, but he’s also his team’s worst defender on the rare occasion when he plays the field. On a stone-handed team like this year’s Red Sox, that’s quite a feat. Ortiz is having a fabulous season, but with Manny around, he’s not even the best player on his team.

All told, voters wouldn’t go wrong by picking either Ramirez or Mora. We’ll give the nod to Mora. The Oriole plays a much more demanding defensive position and leads Ramirez in both AVG and OBA.

While Guillen and Tejada also shine at tough positions, they owe a lot of their value to their copious playing time. Given a healthy final month, Mora should put up some truly impressive totals by the end of the season. If he hadn’t missed two weeks in the middle of July, his lead over the rest of the candidates would already be much more apparent.

Unfortunately, Melvin Mora will not win the MVP. Players on losing teams only win the award when their performance far outstrips any other player in the league, much like Alex Rodriguez’s did last season for the Rangers.

Instead, whichever player on this list (or maybe one off it) has the best September will likely claim the hardware. When the AL MVP is finally handed out, remember the player on a less-heralded team who should have won.