Rating the NBA’s Rookie Class
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

In the game of basketball, experience is proving to be an overrated teacher. Heading into last June’s NBA draft, veteran draftniks engaged in a spirited debate about whether Connecticut’s Emeka Okafor or high schooler Dwight Howard should be the top pick. The argument for Okafor was that he was more polished due to his three years of college experience, but Orlando, which owned the top pick, went for Howard instead. In fact, six of the top 17 picks came straight out of high school, provoking outrage among the “stay in school” crowd and bewilderment among those who think the prepsters are ruining the NBA.
Early returns indicate that we might see even more high schoolers picked in the future. As with several previous drafts, many of this year’s most talented NBA rookies came straight from prom, while the collegians have disappointed. Three of the four highest-rated rookies skipped college, and the other guy only played a year.
Here’s a closer look at some of the key players in this year’s draft class. Each player is evaluated using Player Efficiency Rating, a tool I invented that sums up each player’s per-minute statistical contributions on the season. The league average PER is 15.0; Kevin Garnett led the NBA last year at 29.4.
THE GOOD
DWIGHT HOWARD (1st overall, Orlando) – Despite coming directly from high school, Howard’s PER of 17.7 is the best of all rookies with more than 200 minutes. For some perspective, LeBron James was at 18.3 last year. Howard has unleashed some of the season’s most vicious dunks, and as a rebounder he’s reminiscent of Moses Malone in his ability to go to the carom instead of waiting for the ball to find him.
JOSH SMITH (17th, Atlanta) As they say at the sorority house, “Oh… Mah … God.” Smith is an athletic freak reminiscent of Darius Miles in his first year out of school. He has no idea what he’s doing yet, but he’s 6 feet, 9-inches tall with crazy hops, so he makes tons of plays from sheer athleticism. His performance has been nearly as good as Howard’s, and considering the Hawks got him 16 picks later, he’s the steal of the draft.
LUOL DENG (7th, Chicago) The seventh overall pick out of Duke has been the Bulls’ best player on most nights this season. Despite only one year of college, he’s been up to speed at the defensive end right from the get-go, and his outside shooting has been a pleasant surprise.
AL JEFFERSON (15th, Boston) A low-post bruiser drafted from the prep ranks, Jefferson still has nights where his defense is too much of a liability to leave him in the game. Offensively, however, he’s a Zach Randolph in the making; at 6 feet, 9 inches and 250 pounds, he has natural feel for playing on the low block.
TREVOR ARIZA (43rd, New York) His PER of 12.2 isn’t great, but considering where he was picked, the Knicks still have to be ecstatic about Ariza. He only played one year in college and has no jump shot whatsoever, but he’s athletic enough to get points in transition and on the offensive boards. Plus, he’s already among the team’s best defenders.
THE BAD
RAFAEL ARAUJO (8th, Toronto) The Raptors reached for Araujo because of a perceived need at center, but he’s been absolutely horrendous. His rebounding has been unimpressive, and that was the one thing that even his critics thought he could do competently. He’s 24, so there’s not a lot of untapped upside here.
BEN GORDON (3rd, Chicago) Gordon’s scoring exploits in the NCAA Tournament convinced most that he could fill it up as a pro, but he’s struggled mightily to get his shots off against taller players. He’s shooting 36% from the field, and he seems to lack the blow-by quickness to get to the foul line.
DEVIN HARRIS (5th, Dallas) Dallas anointed the Wisconsin product as their opening-night point guard after trading high scoring Antawn Jamison for him on draft day. It hasn’t worked out as planned, necessitating the Mavs’ trade for Darrell Armstrong this week.
THE JURY’S STILL OUT
EMEKA OKAFOR (2nd, Charlotte) The press is making a big deal about his eight straight double-doubles, but that was mostly a function of his playing time – Okafor has averaged 42 minutes in his last five games. His PER of 15.0 is unremarkable, especially for a second overall pick who spent three years in college.
SHAUN LIVINGSTON (4th, L.A. Clippers) Livingston’s PER might have you thinking “bust,” but be patient. High school kids aren’t supposed to be able to play the point in the NBA, and Livingston clearly understands how to do so. In fact, he’s a great passer. The problem is that he can’t shoot yet, and he hasn’t been able to get to the line either, taking just six foul shots in 211 minutes.
LUKE JACKSON (10th, Cleveland) Jackson is a tough one to figure out. The Cavs obviously need a shooter in the lineup and their other wing players are playing terribly (except for that LeBron guy), yet Jackson has seen 29 minutes of action. Paul Silas will have no choice to but play him eventually because the Ira Newble/Lucious Harris/Dajuan Wagner combo has been disastrous.
JOSH CHILDRESS (5th, Atlanta) His numbers look good, but they’re deceptive. Childress had three games where he was scintillating, and about 10 others where it looked like he’d learned the rules of basketball minutes before tip-off. The Hawks have to hope he can improve his game-to-game consistency.
ANDRE IGUODALA (9th, Philadelphia) Iguodala is an awesome athlete, and he might be the best defensive player in this year’s rookie class. But if he can’t develop a jumper, he might be confined to a Stacey Augmon-type role.