The AFC North looked dangerous before the season began. The Pittsburgh Steelers were a threat to repeat as Super Bowl champions, the Cincinnati Bengals were poised to continue their rise as one of the NFL’s top young teams, and the Baltimore Ravens were supposed to enjoy a defensive resurgence. Well, one out of three ain’t bad.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (6–2)

Since 1999, the Ravens have never finished a season ranked lower than sixth in our defensive DVOA ratings. They have also never finished a season higher than 20th in offensive DVOA. That means their defense can’t be merely good; the Ravens have to really excel to make up for their offensive shortcomings. And this year, they do.

Baltimore’s defensive dominance is built around a mixture of new faces and Ravens of legend. Safety Ed Reed, the 2004 Defensive Player of the Year, is still playing at a high level. Reed’s partner at safety, fifth-round pick Dewan Landry, has proved to be one of the steals of the draft.

At linebacker, Ray Lewis is having his best season in years, partly because of the talent on either side of him. Adalius Thomas can rush the passer like a defensive end and cover wide receivers like a safety. Bart Scott, a part-time player until this season, has turned into a monster pass-rusher, and opponents are now forced to use a tight end or back to help block him.

Quarterback Steve McNair was supposed to lead a big improvement in the passing game, but Baltimore’s offense is no better than in previous years. However, McNair’s two best games have been his last two, so perhaps the Ravens will get that offensive improvement after all. The final step in making this team a major Super Bowl contender will be finally admitting that Jamal Lewis (3.5 yards a carry) is done as an effective running back in the NFL, and handing his job to Musa Smith (5.1 yd/car) and Mike Anderson (4.4 yd/car).

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4–4)

It seemed miraculous that Carson Palmer could start the season for the Bengals, just eight months after suffering a devastating knee injury in a playoff game against Pittsburgh. In retrospect, however, rushing Palmer back into the lineup may have been a mistake.

Palmer’s problems are more mental than physical. He has trouble moving around in the pocket but also seems tentative when faced with a pass rush. He’s altering his mechanics in order to avoid contact below the knee and that leads to inaccurate passes. His completion percentage has dropped to 61% percent this season from 68% in 2005.

Injuries along the Cincinnati offensive line have just made matters worse. That line has already allowed four more sacks than it allowed all of last season. Starting center Rich Braham has missed six games and left tackle Levi Jones has missed four, both with knee injuries.

On defense, the Bengals are actually allowing opponents fewer yards per pass than in 2005, but they have just nine interceptions after a league-leading 31 a year ago. And despite adding hefty ex-Buffalo defensive tackle Sam Adams, the Bengals are still one of the league’s worst teams stopping the run.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2–6)

After a star-crossed off-season that featured a motorcycle accident, a concussion, and an appendectomy, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been erratic at best and abominable at worst. The Steelers mysteriously allowed him to start just one week after he sustained a concussion against Atlanta — his second in a six-month period — and he threw four interceptions and cost the Steelers a game against the pathetic Oakland Raiders.

For two years, the Steelers offense was based on running the football and controlling the passing game to keep Roethlisberger efficient. This year, the offensive line is not playing at the same level, and the running game has disappeared. Willie Parker is averaging less than four yards a carry, and while he’s still dangerous on the outside, the Steelers seem shocked to discover that the 208-pound Parker can’t gain yardage on runs where the now-retired 243-pound Jerome Bettis excelled. With no running game, Roethlisberger is throwing a lot more and constantly turning the ball over by trying to make plays that just aren’t there.

Roethlisberger isn’t the only player in Pittsburgh who can’t protect the ball. The Steelers are in last place in turnover margin, turning the ball over 24 times and taking it away just 13. The defense has had bad luck when it comes to recovering the fumbles of opposing offenses, but the Pittsburgh offense and special teams only have themselves to blame for the turnovers. The still-excellent defense and hard first-half schedule mean this team is much better than its 2–6 record would indicate, but its defense of the Super Bowl title is over.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (2–6)

While Pittsburgh is the most surprising team in the NFL this year, Cleveland is probably the least. This young team expected to endure another year of growing pains has turned out to be a young team enduring another year of growing pains.

There are plenty of reasons for Cleveland fans to be optimistic about 2007. Nobody knew what to expect from 2004 first-round pick Kellen Winslow after he missed most of his first two seasons with injuries, but he’s quickly become one of the league’s top tight ends with 471 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Last year’s top pick, Braylon Edwards, is also showing his talent, although he needs to catch more than 46% of the passes thrown to him. Onetime Kent State quarterback Josh Cribbs is developing into one of the league’s most dangerous kick returners.

The Cleveland defense has been excellent against the pass, with cornerback Leigh Bodden now one of the best in the league. At linebacker, rookies D’Qwell Jackson and Kamerion Wimbley look good, although big free-agent signing Willie McGinest has seen so little of the field that he might as well change his official position to “assistant coach.”

Unfortunately for the Browns, one player stands out because he doesn’t seem to be improving: quarterback Charlie Frye. While Frye’s completion percentage is higher this year, he’s throwing for fewer yards per pass attempt and more interceptions.

Projected order of finish: Baltimore (12-4), Cincinnati (7-9), Pittsburgh (6-10), Cleveland (5-11).

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.