It had to be this way, didn’t it? Vlad Guerrero’s grand slam to tie Game 3, Johan Santana’s dominance – these were little more than cheap props to be undone by a jester named Gardenhire and an ogre named Ortiz, feeble attempts by the opening act to lure the crowd’s interest while the superstars waited backstage. It may come as a surprise to East Coasters that the divide between Red States and Blue States has nothing to do with the Yanks-Sox rivalry, but this series ought to be just about as impassioned as the presidential campaign, and considerably more enjoyable.

The Red Sox pitching staff is overwhelmingly right-handed, but that should not present a problem since none of the Yankee regulars has major platoon issues. Hideki Matsui hits especially well against righties and could be a key in this series, especially given how well he swung the bat in the division series.

What could be a problem? The Yankee offense is highly dependent on drawing walks. The New Yorkers took a league-leading 670 of them during the regular season; the only team that came anywhere close was the Sox. Trouble is, the Red Sox rotation is stingy about giving out free passes. Pedro Martinez, who at times seems to have transformed into the world’s best junkball pitcher, no longer has the command he once did, but his walk rate is still well below par. Curt Schilling and Bronson Arroyo are two of the best control pitchers in the game. Tim Wakefield allows some walks, but looks like Robin Roberts compared to the usual standard for knuckleballers.

The Yankees managed a .339 OBA against the Red Sox during the season, versus .353 against their schedule as a whole. If Schilling’s tendonitis forces him to miss a turn – though that looks unlikely – Derek Lowe just won’t cut it against a lineup like this.

Boston’s lineup is a bit deeper and better balanced than their opponents’. The Red Sox, like the Yankees, owe their success in part to drawing a huge number of walks, but they also hit for more power and higher batting averages. The Red Sox also appear better positioned to leverage their platoon advantage. As a group, the Sox hit .280/.350/.466 against lefties during the regular season, but .283/.364/.475 against righties – and that was without Trot Nixon for most of the season. Jon Lieber, who was mauled by lefties for much of the year, could find the going particularly tough.

Mike Mussina finally seems to be operating at full strength, but serious questions remain about the Yanks’ no. 3 and 4 starters. Kevin Brown’s outing against the Twins appeared on the surface to be successful, but he struck out just one batter. Outside of performing terribly in the second half, Javier Vazquez’s propensity to give up the long ball will be problematic against the Sox. Making matters worse, bullpen depth is an issue for the Yankees, so an early exit for Brown or Vazquez could have an impact on other games in the series.

The Yankees still may decide to give up on another El Duque miracle and insert Jason Giambi into the roster as a pinch-hitting option. Without him, there isn’t much of interest here; particularly lacking is an obvious right-handed bat should the Red Sox use Alan Embree or Mike Myers. Kenny Lofton retains some usefulness, but he doesn’t hit lefties well and is no better than an above-average defender at this point.

The Red Sox finally have their bullpen ace in Keith Foulke, but depth is a problem. Sending Lowe or Curtis Leskanic out there in a key situation amounts to waving the white flag. Foulke is extraordinarily efficient with his pitches and has some grooming as a starter, so using him for two-inning stints would be advisable.

The Red Sox’ positional depth isn’t tremendous, but they have a number of players who assume their roles relatively well. Kevin Youkilis, one of the pleasant surprises of the season, is the designated lefty-masher off the bench. Pokey Reese and Doug Mientkiewicz can transform the Red Sox defense from mediocre to outstanding with just a couple of blots of Terry Francona’s pen. Dave Roberts is one of the best baserunners in the game. It’s a better bench for a close, defensively oriented series than a potential slugfest.

Mariano Rivera might be the best relief pitcher in the game’s history, but the key to the Yankee bullpen is Tom Gordon. “Flash” led all relief pitchers in Value Over Replacement Level this season, but he’s 36 and has logged more innings this year than at any time since he became a reliever after 1997. It would be premature to anticipate a collapse, but if Gordon isn’t effective, the prospect of relying on Tanyon Sturtze is something that ought to be giving Mel Stottlemyre nightmares.

THE CALL: RED SOX IN 6

Matchup advantages appear to favor the Red Sox, as Nixon and company should be positioned to tee off against a steady diet of righties, while the Yankee offense will have some of the air sucked out of it by the Red Sox’ suffocating command. Even we skeptics at Baseball Prospectus have trouble completely discounting the impact of playing a postseason game at Yankee Stadium, but this looks like the Red Sox’ best chance yet to get the better of it.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.