If the 2005 season proved anything, it was that the pundits and prognosticators who flood the press every April are really just taking stabs in the dark. Most analysts had the world champion White Sox and NL champion Astros finishing third in their respective divisions. When the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles mounted early assaults on their divisions, everyone backtracked to explain why they were the “real thing,” only to watch them plummet back to earth in the season’s final weeks.

This season will surely prove to be no exception. Here are the teams we think have been mislabeled as either frontrunners or dark horses this spring – though we of course reserve the right to be wrong.

They may not win their first World Series, but the Milwaukee Brewers will make a move in the NL Central this year and post their first winning record since 1992.General manager Doug Melvin has assembled a fine blend of offensive talent and pitching depth.

Veteran sluggers Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins are joined by rookie first baseman Prince Fielder and second baseman Rickie Weeks, who could form the AL’s best right side in just a few seasons. The lineup and the club’s defense will also have the benefit of shortstop J.J. Hardy’s continuing development. After a slow start, Hardy hit .308 AVG/.363 OBA/.503 SLG after the All-Star break last season, a positive sign.

On the mound, there are concerns about how quickly and how thoroughly staff ace Ben Sheets will recover from a back injury, though the additions of Tomo Ohka last summer and David Bush and Rick Helling this winter give the club a rotation that will consistently keep the improving lineup in games.

A nice problem for manager Ned Yost is sorting out a bullpen that has been shored up with youngsters like Jose Capellan, but a greater challenge will be keeping Derrick Turnbow, who just signed to a $6.5 million, three-year contract and moved from middle-relief to closer, on top of his game.

Another Rust Belt franchise, the Detroit Tigers, will shake off their recent reputation for failure and return to relevance this year. The veteran core of quality hitters up the middle – Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate, second baseman Placido Polanco, and shortstop Carlos Guillen – gives new manager Jim Leyland an immediate leg up in constructing a solid lineup.

The key for Detroit Jeremy Bonderman’s emergence as the staff ace. Baseball Prospectus projects modest growth for him – a career-high Value Over Replacement Player (VORP, which calculates how many runs a player contributes over a readily available Triple-A player like Bubba Crosby) rating of 31.9 – but his power fastball/slider combo gives him the potential for a much more significant breakout.

It’s been years since the Tigers have been able to crank out real prospects, but that’s changing with the emergance of quality youngsters like Curtis Granderson in center and Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya on the mound. There are more players on the way up from the farm system as well, which gives GM Dave Dombrowski – who has already managed to turn the 43-119 fiasco of 2003 into a promising squad – some options to make a deal should the playoffs be within reach late in the summer.

If there’s a club certain to disappoint, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays. Picking up pitchers A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan certainly helps, but the $102 million they spent on them didn’t leave enough to really put this team in position to give the Yankees and the Red Sox much pause.

Burnett managed to get up to 47th in VORP among starters last season, and PECOTA, our projection system, expects him to take another step forward now that he’s another year removed from Tommy John surgery. The question is whether he and Roy Halladay will get the kind of run support they need to go toe-to-toe with the East’s top teams.

However many headlines their big winter moves generated, the Jays are counting on the underwhelming likes of Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina to be completely healthy, something neither has been in the last three years. Toronto will also need new first baseman Lyle Overbay to have a season more like his career year of 2004 (when he hit 301/.385/.478) than last year’s adequate effort (.276/.367/.449), and Aaron Hill to skillfully replace slick-fielding Orlando Hudson at second. Even if center fielder Vernon Wells has the bounce-back year many are expecting, the Jays sport far too many ‘ifs’ in an unforgiving division.

Also likely to frustrate their fans are the Washington Nationals. Starting with GM Jim Bowden’s blind eye to park effects, D.C. is about to watch Alfonso Soriano falter in the heavy air at RFK Stadium, which ranks behind only San Diego’s PETCO Park among NL stadiums in offensive stinginess.

Overreacting to the idea that speed and defense are en vogue, the Nats have slotted Brandon Watson as their center fielder and leadoff man, and while he has the glove and legs for the job, he will not generate comparisons to Juan Pierre, let alone Rickey Henderson.

The rotation isn’t really better off, either. Reds retread Ramon Ortiz isn’t going to make people forget Esteban Loiaza’s steady work last year. Beyond Ortiz, the club has to find ways to make Bowden’s unfortunate commitments to Ryan Drese and Tony Armas work out. The drop-off might be more than 10 games from last year’s 81-81 campaign, and could lead the Nats’ soon-to-be-selected owners to reconsider the wisdom of retaining Bowden.

Ms. Karhl is a regular writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, go to baseballprospectus.com.