After three weeks of the 1999 season, the New England Patriots were 3-0. In two of those wins, Drew Bledsoe led the Patriots down the field on a game winning drive during the final two minutes. Though each game was decided by just three points or less, the Patriots showed that they knew how to win when the game was on the line, and were a leading Super Bowl contender.

After three weeks of the 2004 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were also 3-0. In two of those wins, Byron Leftwich led the Jaguars down the field on a game-winning drive during the final two minutes. As with the 1999 Patriots, each game was decided by just three points or less.

What do these two teams have in common? Each began its season with three straight close wins that could have easily been losses. And each team failed to make the playoffs. The 2004 Jaguars were 6-7 the rest of the way, while the 1999 Patriots finished 5-8.

The 1998 Oakland Raiders and 1999 Miami Dolphins also won three straight close games during the first half of those seasons, then each went 2-6 over the second half of the season. That Dolphins team actually backed into the playoffs, only to get famously crushed 62-7 by Jacksonville.

These are the cautionary tales for all those who would quickly jump aboard the bandwagon of the 3-0 Washington Redskins. The storyline is tempting: An experienced head coach and a veteran quarterback, who last year looked like the game had passed them by, seeking redemption with clutch victory after clutch victory. The reality is far more sobering: A deeply flawed team that has narrowly beaten three other flawed teams thanks to some good timing and a lot of luck.

According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings (DVOA) – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – Washington has been the 22nd best team in the NFL this season. They rank 16th in both offense and defense. They are 29th in special teams because they only have positive yardage on three of 16 punt returns and have returned only one kickoff past the 30-yard line.

How have the Redskins won three games with such mediocre performance?

Well, they won their first game against offensively challenged Chicago, which had a rookie quarterback, Kyle Orton, making his first NFL start.

The following week, Dallas outplayed Washington for 56 minutes before 39-and 70-yard touchdown passes to Santana Moss. Desperation touchdowns of this type – though great plays that deservedly gave Washington a one-point victory – do not usually indicate that a team will win games in the future.

Washington won its third game in overtime on Sunday when Seattle’s Josh Brown missed a field goal that would have won the game at the end of regulation. In fact, though the league’s kickers have hit 81% of field goals this year, those kicking against Washington have only hit three of six. In overtime, after Seattle outplayed them for 60 minutes, the Redskins exposed Seattle’s fatal flaw by converting three straight third-and-long situations to set up the winning field goal.

As followers know, the Redskins’ saving grace is their tenacious defense. But despite the 3-0 record, Washington has actually seen a decline from the defensive unit. The Skins are allowing 5.8 net yards per pass, up from 5.4 last year. The run defense, meanwhile, is allowing 3.7 yards per carry, up from 3.3 last year.

While the defense has only sacked opposing quarterbacks four times, Washington’s spotty offensive line has allowed 1135 1316 1253 1327

10 sacks. And running back Clinton Portis, who saw a historic drop in his yards per carry average last year, hasn’t been that much better this year. He’s averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and has only one run longer than 13 yards.

There is one place where the uplifting Washington storyline is really true: Mark Brunell really has played better this year. His completion percentage of 57% and average of 7.0 yards per pass are his best numbers since 2002.But that completion percentage is actually lower than last year’s 62% completion percentage from Patrick Ramsey, the quarterback Brunell replaced, and the high average of yards per pass will drop as the touchdowns that beat Dallas get smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror.

Meanwhile, Washington’s schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. During the next two weeks, they go on the road to face two powerful AFC West teams in Denver and Kansas City. They still have two games against defending NFC champion Philadelphia and two games against the newly powerful Giants, plus games against Tampa Bay and San Diego.

The Redskins may soon learn that clutch performance is a cruel mistress. After starting 3-0 and then beating the expansion Browns, the 1999 Patriots lost their next two games by a combined three points. The 2004 Jaguars, after winning their first three games close, later lost at home to Tennessee by three points and to Pittsburgh by just one point.

With three close wins already in the bag, the Redskins have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. But when their luck evens out – as it inevitably will – that difficult schedule also makes them a reasonable candidate for a collapse.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief ofFootballOutsiders.com.