WASHINGTON REDSKINS (10-6) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (13-3)
(Saturday, 4:30 p.m., FOX)

WHEN THE REDSKINS HAVE THE BALL

Six weeks ago, Washington was 5-6 and seemingly done for the season. Six wins and numerous injuries later, the Redskins head to Seattle, hoping to knock off the NFC’s top seed.

Washington beat Seattle in overtime back in Week 4, 20-17. The game was close because the Redskins converted 13 of 18 third-down opportunities, a 72% rate. On the winning drive, Washington converted two third-and-10s and a third-and-9. Don’t expect that to happen again – this was both the best third-down conversion rate for Washington in any game this year and the worst third-down conversion rate for the Seattle defense.

The Redskins’ offense has been dominated this season by Santana Moss and his 1,483 receiving yards. Moss has been tough to stop because the offensive scheme uses motion and multiple-receiver formations to prevent double coverage. The only other Redskin receiver over 200 yards for the season was halfback Chris Cooley, with 774 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

But quarterback Mark Brunell has looked terrible – going just 23-of-51 for 294 yards – since reinjuring his knee against the Giants three weeks ago. Last week, Brunell only found Cooley and Moss twice each. The Seahawks pass rush, which led the league in sacks this season with an even 50, will make his job even tougher. Washington’s offensive line is playing 43-year-old Ray Brown at right guard, and left tackle Chris Samuels will play despite a nagging knee injury.

If Brunell struggles, the offensive load falls running back Clinton Portis. But Portis is also banged up, with a sore shoulder that put him on the sidelines during important parts of last week’s win over Tampa Bay. Seattle’s defense is stronger against the run than the pass, and it is strongest where Portis runs the best, which is around right end; the Seahawks are ranked second in the league in stopping such runs according to adjusted line yards. You probably don’t know the name LeRoy Hill, but you will after Portis runs into him a few times. He’s the other rookie linebacker who starts for the Seahawks, alongside the heralded Lofa Tatupu.

WHEN THE SEAHAWKS HAVE THE BALL

Seattle’s offense starts on the ground, with MVP Shaun Alexander running behind a line that features two Pro Bowlers. The Seahawks excel no matter when they run – they are the top team in converting carries on thirdand-short and they rank second in the percentage of their yards gained over 10 yards. The latter is more important in this game, because Washington, despite generally being strong against the run, is the league’s worst team at preventing long runs. Rest assured that Alexander will break at least one huge run like his 34-yarder in the Week 4 meeting with Washington.

Seattle’s passing game is led by the crafty and accurate Matt Hasselbeck. With the addition of lanky veteran Joe Jurevicius and the promotion of Bobby Engram to the starting lineup, Hasselbeck is no longer stuck watching his receivers drop his perfectly placed throws. Last year, Seattle wideouts caught just 56% of passes; this year, that number is 66%. And Seattle’s offensive line will fight off the Washington pass rush much better than Tampa Bay did.

Seattle’s no. 1 receiver, Darrell Jackson, is healthy after missing 10 games with a knee injury. But the same can’t be said for the Redskins’ defense. Top cornerback Shawn Springs missed the last two games with a groin injury, but will try to play. Defensive end Renaldo Wynn is out after breaking his arm against the Bucs.

OUTLOOK

If Washington was at full strength, this would be an intriguing matchup between a powerful offense and a powerful defense. But after the wounded Redskins managed just 120 yards against Tampa Bay, it is hard to see them scoring enough points to overcome Seattle’s offensive juggernaut, playing for of a home crowd that hasn’t seen a playoff win in 21 years.

The Pick: Seahawks

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.