Thanks to the American League wild card, history may repeat itself. In 1948, the Yankees, Indians, and Red Sox entered the final weekend of the season with a chance to win the pennant. The Yankees lost out, but taking a longer view, it worked out extremely well for them. Those three teams have been thrown together again going into the last days of the 2005 season, and once again if the Yankees don’t make it, they could eventually win for losing.

Should the Yankees not make the post-season, the shortfall is expected to prove fatal to manager Joe Torre, or at least as fatal as it can be to someone who will be paid millions whether he’s ordering relievers from the bullpen or pina coladas from the poolside bar. It is widely rumored that the end of this season, successfully concluded or otherwise, will bring regime change in the form of the departure of general manager Brian Cashman. Cashman’s contract is up and it’s thought that he might wish to continue his baseball career working for a more reasonable owner.

The Yankees were in the midst of a historic change of management in 1948, one that the end of the season accelerated. With two to play on October 1, the Indians led both the Yankees and the Red Sox by one game. The Red Sox eliminated the Yankees that day. Cleveland won, maintaining their lead. The Red Sox won again on the last day, while the Indians lost, leaving the race tied. The two teams moved to a one-game playoff, which the Indians won.

The Yankees had a new general manager, George Weiss, but still had the old regime’s manager, Bucky Harris. Weiss didn’t like Harris, thought he was a lackadaisical coach who didn’t do much with strategy or discipline. The loss to the Red Sox gave him the excuse he needed to can Harris and bring on the man he wanted, Casey Stengel. It would be five years before the Yankees lost another pennant race.

Should the Yankees not make the playoffs, and perhaps even if they do, the franchise would benefit from whole, rather than partial, regime change. Joe Torre has showed signs of fatigue this year. He gave Tony Womack too much rope (though it seems like years since Womack was a regular, at the time he was benched he had roughly 10% of the team’s total plate appearances. Even having not played for months, he still holds 6% of the total). He desperately sought to recreate his lefty/righty twin setup men of the old Mike Stanton/Jeff Nelson days, and though it quickly became clear that none of the southpaws the Yankees handed him would be the answer – especially Alan Embree – Torre kept trying anyway, unwilling to throw away the book and forget his platoon statistics.

Worst of all, Torre has been unwilling to stick with any of the admittedly mediocre options the Yankees organization provided him. The great managers can look at a flawed player or pitcher and construct a role for him in which he can help the team. Torre would rather play Ruben Sierra.

This has been true throughout his administration. A young pitcher has zero chance of catching on with the Yankees (Scott Proctor is currently defying the odds, and for no particular reason); since Mariano Rivera, Torre has inaugurated the career of exactly zero relief pitchers. As for position players, Robinson Cano is the only starter for whom “carded” means be ing asked to present your drivers license at the bar, not having to show your AARP card to get your senior discount at the multiplex. In 1996, Torre took a talented but unfocused team and molded it into a winner. That day is done.

The next Yankees GM will face new challenges. The off-season free-agent market is weak. The Yankees have pitching coming from the minors but position players are far away. That GM deserves a manager who will work with him to help make the Yankees younger, who will push for even journeymen like Andy Phillips to get a chance rather than giving Tino Martinez another go-round, for the uncertainty of youth rather than the predictability of age. If the Yankees lose this year, Torre won’t deserve to go, but it might be time.

Mr. Goldman is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel, released this year.