NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-6) AT DENVER BRONCOS (13-3)
(Saturday, 8 p.m., CBS)

Denver is 13-2 since an opening day upset by Miami. The two losses came on the road by a combined five points. The wins included a 28-20 victory in Week 6 over the defending champion Patriots, but the game wasn’t really that close: Denver was up 28-3 in the third quarter before New England came back against a prevent defense.

But the Patriots now are very different from the Patriots then. On Saturday, the Patriots will start three players who were injured when these teams first played, including Pro Bowl defensive end Richard Seymour and linebacker Tedy Bruschi.

What few people realize is that the Broncos today aren’t the Broncos of that game, either. Early in the season, Denver was seeking out close wins despite terrible play in some very important situations. Through six weeks, the Denver offense ranked 28th in third-down conversion rate, and the Broncos were one of the league’s worst red zone teams on both offense and defense. Since playing New England, the Broncos’ offense is seventh in third-down conversion rate. Their red zone DVOA on offense has improved from 23rd in the NFL to ninth, and their red zone DVOA on defense has gone from 28th to sixth.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

The Broncos’ defense is a prime example of why the official NFL team rankings by total yardage are ridiculous. The NFL says the Broncos are 29th in pass defense, allowing 228 yards per game. Of course, the Broncos also face 38.3 passes per game, two more than any other team and six more than the NFL average. All three of their division rivals rank in the top 12 in passing yards. Only four defenses had more interceptions and only two caused more fumbles on passing plays.

So DVOA ranks Denver fourth in pass defense, a good match for the Patriots, who have the best air attack outside of Indianapolis. Denver’s run defense is mediocre, but so is New England’s running game. Actually, the Broncos’ defense is much like the Jaguars defense the Patriots faced last week, except healthy. The one big difference is that Denver’s pass rush never gets to the quarterback, and the Broncos were last in the league in sacks per pass play.

The Broncos boast the best defense against tight ends and second-best defense against slot receivers, but are middle of the road against starting wideouts. So expect more of wideouts Deion Branch and David Givens, and less of tight end Ben Watson and the mutlipurpose Troy Brown.

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

The Broncos built their victory over New England on big plays: a 72-yard pass to Rod Smith, a 55-yard pass to Ashley Lelie, and a 68-yard run by Tatum Bell. But both pass plays came against departed cornerback Duane Starks, and the Bell run was the only carry over 20 yards allowed by New England all year.

The Patriots have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry to running backs since Seymour returned in Week 10, so they match up well with Denver’s league-best running game. More likely, Denver will gain yardage with a succession of medium-length passes. New England’s secondary has improved without Starks, but it is still the team’s biggest weakness.

Patriots fans expect Denver quarterback Jake Plummer to make mistakes, but Plummer has only thrown four interceptions in his last 14 games, while the Patriots were near the bottom of the league with just 10 picks – half of which came from quarterbacks named Losman and Bollinger.

OUTLOOK

The Patriots have a much better chance to win this game than the full season numbers might indicate, but the Broncos are a much better team than people are giving them credit for. On a neutral field, with equal rest, the Patriots would probably be a slight favorite. But they play the regular season for a reason, and the home field and extra week of preparation give the Broncos the edge.

The Pick: Broncos