On Sunday, Andy Roddick will compete for his second U.S. Open title.

To those fans who have taken a shine to Mikhail Youzhny, our apologies. He’s a fine fellow with a beautiful backhand and a heartwarming story: His father died four years ago, and since then he’s struggled with his emotions, high expectations, and several injuries. He’s not a bad doubles player, either. Wednesday evening he and his partner, Leos Friedl of the Czech Republic, pulled off an upset more shocking than Youzhny’s victory a few hours earlier over Rafael Nadal, when they defeated twins Bob and Mike Bryan in three sets.

Youzhny and Friedl lost yesterday, so Youzhny will not contend for the U.S. Open title in both singles and doubles, as John McEnroe did in 1981 (he won both). Because of Roddick, he likely won’t contend for the singles crown, either.

By the time Sunday rolls around, you’ll be reading about the young Russian’s valiant effort, and even more about Roddick’s chance at redemption and the mystical qualities of his new coach, some guy named Connors. There will be some truth to these tales. You’ll also read a lot about Roddick’s newfound confidence and his commitment to aggressive play, and there will be something to that, too.

There are simpler reasons why Roddick has come this far, though, and why he’ll reach the final: He’s serving exceptionally well and was bequeathed, from those often ornery and cruel tennis gods, an outrageously easy draw.

First, his serve (see chart). So far, Roddick’s pitching has been as dominant as Randy Johnson’s in his prime (Merriam-Webster defines “prime” as “before being traded to the Yankees”). Roddick has fired strikes on his first serve 71.5% of the time, a phenomenal first-serve percentage.The tour leaders in this statistic usually play most of their tennis on clay and sacrifice pace for a higher percentage (the leader this year is Fernando Verdasco at 72%, followed byTommy Robredo and Filippo Volandri at 71%). Roddick generally serves a superb percentage (66% prior to the Open), but for a man who hits the ball as violently as he does, 71.5% is obscene.

In his five matches, Roddick has won 82% of points on his first serve, and 60% on his second. His season averages (again, prior to the Open) were 78% and 55%. Overall, he’s won 75.7% of points on his serve this tournament, 2% better than his season average in 2005 (despite having a “poor” year in terms of results, Roddick served better last year than he ever had in his career). He has improved in another telling category, too: break points saved (76.5% this tournament compared to 68% for the season).

So, how does the “new Andy Roddick,” as he described himself after defeating Lleyton Hewitt in straight sets in the quarterfinals, compare to the Roddick who won the Open in 2003? That year, he won 75.2% of his serve points. His winning percentage on first serves was the same (81.8%), but he did not put them in the box as consistently (63.5%). His second serve, though, was more effective: He won 63.7% of those points.

Roddick’s return numbers have improved this tournament, too. He has won 28.4% of his return games compared to 23% for the season. If you are thinking this improvement of more than 5 percentage points might be a result of better baseline play, or increased aggression, you might be right. More likely, though, it’s a function of Roddick’s draw.

Before this tournament began, Roddick had a good draw. Along the way, it went from good to outstanding. Andre Agassi said goodbye to tennis and gave Roddick a wonderful going-away present by dispatching Marcos Baghdatis, the explosive Cypriot who beat Roddick at the Australian Open earlier this year. Benjamin Becker, an inexperienced professional who recently left the college ranks, spared Roddick from playing an emotional match against Agassi (considering Agassi’s ailing back, Roddick likely would have aced him into submission). Ivan Ljubicic choked, losing to Feliciano Lopez in the first round (Lopez then lost to a qualifier, Marco Chiudinelli). And while Hewitt has troubled Roddick in the past, he’s not what he once was — one only needed to witness his all-tooordinary footwork on Wednesday.

It’s not often one can reach the final of a Grand Slam without playing anyone seeded higher than no. 15, but if Roddick wins on Saturday afternoon, he’ll do just that. More important for him, he’ll be in the final without having had to defeat anyone who can serve very well (Becker has pop, but misses too often). It’s Hewitt’s biggest weakness, and it’s not a particular strength of Youzhny’s, though he did serve better than his season stats against Nadal.

But one match does not make a champion, and it was not so long ago — last week, in fact — that Youzhny had to recover from a two-set deficit against Nicolas Massu, a popular player in New York who has never gone beyond the fourth round. Nadal gave Youzhny lots of shots that landed too far inside the baseline and hit too few quality serves. Finding a rhythm against Roddick will be much more difficult, as Roddick’s serve will tally up a lot of free points, and his strokes, while flawed and not nearly as powerful as many people believe, generally have good depth. Perhaps Youzhny will play well beyond his limits for a second singles match in a row, but it’s unlikely.

As much as Roddick will almost certainly reach the final, chances are he will have to beat Federer to win his second title (credit to James Blake if he has made this point moot). Federer is a bad match-up for anyone (save Nadal), but particularly so for Roddick. The world no. 1 returns incredibly well — for my money, better than Agassi. Think of returning as playing shortstop in baseball. Agassi is Derek Jeter, a fine athlete who makes lots of plays that are appealing to the eye. Federer is Alex Gonzalez of the Boston Red Sox, whose range and reflexes are superior. Agassi gave up a lot of aces in his career because he often guessed and tried to hit winners on his returns. Federer doesn’t allow a ball past him — he hardly ever relinquishes more aces than he hits, largely because he does not need to do much more than return a serve in play and allow his superior strokes and footwork to do the rest. In 11 meetings, Roddick has outaced Federer twice and tied him once. Federer has won 10 out of 11 times.

Nadal has proved that Federer is not invincible in Grand Slam finals. Roddick could prove that again, though he might have to serve close to 80% to do so. Either that, or have Connors leap from the stands and tackle Federer at the knees. Connors, we’ll be watching you. And Roddick, too.