Roles Reversed in Monday Night Matchup
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

In 1996, Brett Favre was the best quarterback in football and the reigning NFL MVP. But many believed that he couldn’t win when it counted, because one team was his personal demon. For three straight years, the Packers had faced the Dallas Cowboys in both the regular season and the playoffs and lost all six games.
The Packers and Cowboys met again in 1996, and once again the Cowboys won. But come playoff time, the Cowboys were eliminated before they could get to the Packers, and Favre went on to win the Super Bowl and change his image forever.
This history may surprise the commentators who say that the Indianapolis Colts must beat the New England Patriots tonight in order to prove to themselves that they can win the Super Bowl. For all the psychic baggage that quarterback Peyton Manning carries into this game, the Colts will still have the best record in football if they lose,and there’s a good chance that come January they won’t have to travel to New England – or even play New England – to capture the Lombardi Trophy.
In reality, New England is the team with something to prove, not Indianapolis. The Colts may be undefeated, but they are basically the same team they’ve been in years past. The Patriots, however, have to prove that they can patch the holes in a lineup torn open by injuries.
Yes, the Colts are scoring fewer points this year, but their offense is still powerful and balanced.The only difference has come in strategy; opponents are keeping safeties back to prevent Manning from passing deep, which has allowed Edgerrin James to run for a huge season. An offense heavy on consistent running rather than big plays wins just as many games, but keeps the score lower.
What about the improved Indianapolis defense? The secondary is a bit better, but the Colts are still built around smaller, speedier pass rushers who cannot stop the run. They rank 26th in the NFL, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. So the strategy for beating them is the same. Run the ball over and over.When a pass is necessary, keep back extra blockers to neutralize pass rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
The Patriots were missing key players with injuries when they beat the Colts in last year’s playoffs, but none of those key players were on the offensive side of the ball.This year, the offense is hurting as much as the defense, and in places where a team needs strength to neutralize the Colts defense.
Rookie third-round pick Nick Kazcur has been New England’s starting left tackle since Matt Light broke his leg in the third week of the season, and he’s been repeatedly abused by opposing pass rushers. The Patriots have allowed only 10 sacks this year, ranking them third in the NFL, but four of those sacks have resulted from blown blocks by Kazcur, one for each of his four starts. Kazcur’s inexperience will make containing Freeney more difficult than ever, and a double team on Freeney will leave things open for Mathis, the league leader in sacks, to come after Tom Brady from the other side.
As for the Patriots running game, it is in shambles. First-stringer Corey Dillon is hobbled by an ankle injury, but found himself called in for duty last week when fullback-turned-halfback Patrick Pass strained his hamstring against Buffalo. Pass was only starting because secondstringer Kevin Faulk is out four months with a broken bone in his foot.Dillon and Pass are both questionable, with Dillon more likely to play, but if neither can go the New England backfield will consist of two players signed as free agents within the last week: halfback Mike Cloud and fullback Heath Evans.
On defense, the Patriots have never faced the Indianapolis offense with quite this many players injured.The absence of Pro Bowl defensive end Richard Seymour is a problem, but one the Patriots overcame in last year’s postseason.
But for all the talk about a “patchwork secondary,” the Patriots started the same players at three of the four secondary positions for most of last season.This year, they are not so lucky. The Patriots will start their fifth different strong safety tonight; three of those players are injured, and the fourth, Arturo Freeman, was waived to make room for Cloud. Nobody actually knows who tonight’s starter will be, but it probably will be a backup cornerback moved over.
Starting cornerback Randall Gay is also injured, and the veteran signed for depth, Duane Starks, has repeatedly been targeted and abused by opposing quarterbacks. Buffalo, for one example, threw seven passes on its second drive of last week’s game against the Pats: two screens and five at a receiver covered by Starks. When Starks isn’t getting burned deep, he’s giving up yards underneath because he’s playing off receivers in an effort to avoid getting burned deep.
All these injuries and replacements will make it harder than ever for the Patriots to keep Manning in check. If they can’t do that, they can’t keep the game close, and if they can’t keep the game close, they can’t run the ball – and if they can’t run the ball, they can’t win. If Dillon isn’t healthy enough to run well, Mike Cloud will have to pull the best performance of his career three days after signing with the team.
It doesn’t seem promising for the Patriots, but in the NFL, you can always expect the unexpected – and never more so than when the Colts travel to New England.
Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.