Saints, Seahawks Need To Revamp Offense Sunday
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While all eyes will be focused on the Patriots and Colts this Sunday afternoon — and any leftover hype will be aimed at Sunday evening’s Cowboys–Eagles game — two otherwise overlooked inter-conference matchups should be worth watching.
JAGUARS (5–2) at SAINTS (3–4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
In 2006, the Saints responded to the ravages of Hurricane Katrina by posting their first playoff win since 2000. An incredible draft and the acquisition of free agent quarterback Drew Brees seemed to set this team up for the long term. When the Saints lost the NFC Championship game to the Chicago Bears, hope for the future overwhelmed any disappointment.
But the 2007 Saints took two steps out of the gate and promptly engineered a four-game change of face, in which they lost every game and were outscored 119–51. Brees threw nine interceptions to one touchdown; a knee injury took out running back Deuce McAllister for the season, and the offensive line and secondary were simply atrocious.
New Orleans’ fourth loss, however, a 16–13 nail-biter to the Carolina Panthers, has proved to be the turnaround. Brees has thrown eight touchdowns to one interception in the three victories since then; receivers are catching balls instead of dropping them (second-year man Marques Colston caught three touchdown passes last week against San Francisco), and Reggie Bush is finally gaining ground as a feature back. After what looked like a lost season, New Orleans is only one game out in the NFC South. If its offense keeps clicking, it’ll be tough to keep down in a weak division.
The Jaguars can’t rely on lowhanging divisional fruit — they reside in the AFC South, where the competition is murderous. They’re two games behind the champion Colts, and they’ve already lost once to a Titans team that shares their record of 5–2.
The current problem with Jack Del Rio’s team is the quarterback position. After releasing longtime starter Byron Leftwich in September, the Jaguars put their hopes in David Garrard. The six-year veteran showed great efficiency, leading his team to four straight wins before an ankle injury stopped him in Jacksonville’s 29–7 loss to the Colts on October 22. Backup Quinn Gray completed only nine of 24 passes in that game, and the Jags responded by running the ball on their first 14 offensive plays in last week’s win over Tampa Bay.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor helm Jacksonville’s rushing attack, and they’ll need to control the clock against that explosive Saints offense. John Henderson and Marcus Stroud are the defining forces behind the defense, though reports indicate that Stroud may face a four-game suspension after testing positive for banned substances. Jacksonville has signed Grady Jackson, most recently of the Falcons, as an insurance policy.
SEAHAWKS (4–3) at BROWNS (4–3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
If you heard that one of these two teams ranked sixth overall in yards per game gained with 356.4, right up there with the Colts, Steelers, and Bengals, you’d probably assume that Mike Holmgren’s Seahawks would be it. But the Browns now have the better offense.
The Baltimore Ravens took quarterback Derek Anderson in the sixth round during the 2005 draft. Cast aside and claimed by current Cleveland (and former Baltimore general manager) Phil Savage in September 2005, Anderson saw limited action in 2006, and his 2007 preseason was sufficiently undistinguished to convince the Browns to start Charlie Frye in the season opener against the Steelers.
One quarter and several sacks later, a shell-shocked Frye was replaced for good (and traded to Seattle soon after). After a tentative beginning, Anderson has thrown more touchdown passes in 2007 (17) than anyone except Tom Brady.
He’s also got weapons: Receiver Braylon Edwards is a great deep threat who becomes more dangerous by the week, and Kellen Winslow is one of the league’s most productive tight ends. But it’s their defense that will keep the Browns out of the playoffs this season. This squad has allowed 410 yards per game, by far the worst in the NFL. Only the Dolphins and Bengals have allowed more points per game than Cleveland’s 29.
After several division titles and a Super Bowl berth, the Seahawks might be looking at the other side of the curve. Their offensive line hasn’t been right since 2005, running back Shaun Alexander has lost much of his explosiveness and acceleration, and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has operated under difficult circumstances. Last year, receivers Deion Branch and Nate Burleson were new to the team. Burleson didn’t pan out and became primarily a return man, and Branch was just beginning to gel in the new offense when he injured his foot in a loss to Pittsburgh. Hasselbeck is recovering from a strained oblique muscle, but he may have Branch back for this game.
Now an opportunistic defense and rejuvenated special teams make the Seahawks go. Seattle ranks third in points allowed (15.4 per game), fourth in quarterback sacks (23), and it’s tied for 10th in interceptions with eight after picking off only 12 in 2006.
Only New England and Pittsburgh have put their opponents in bigger holes to start: offenses facing Seattle start just behind their own 27-yard line on average. When facing Cleveland’s offense, the Seahawks will need that advantage.
Mr. Farrar is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.