Like Seattle-Chicago, this game is a rematch of a regular season game. But that game was not a blowout; it was a hard-fought, well-played battle, won 27–24 by New Orleans on a last-second field goal. The Saints and Eagles are as evenly matched now as they were then.

WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL Both teams rank among the five best offenses in the league this year, but they are not equal on defense. Philadelphia ranked 11th in DVOA, New Orleans 19th.

But the Saints were also one of the least consistent defenses in the league. They shut down some teams (Falcons, Cowboys, Giants) while other teams — mainly those from the AFC — walked all over them. The benefit of inconsistency is that below-average performance on the season doesn’t necessarily mean below-average performance in your next game.

The Eagles are known for passing, but they are extremely efficient when they run, and Brian Westbrook averaged 5.1 yards a carry this year. It’s easier to run on the right side of the New Orleans defense. Opposing running backs gained 5.1 yards per carry on runs listed as left end or left tackle, compared to 4.4 yards a carry on other runs.

The Saints’ pass defense got an extremely imbalanced performance from the secondary during the second half of the year. Starter Mike McKenzie and nickel back Jason Craft played very well, but Fred Thomas was consistently burned by speedy receivers like Chad Johnson, Terry Glenn, and Antonio Bryant.

The Eagles didn’t show much of their long passing game against the Giants last week, but they do love to throw the ball deep, with fast receivers like Donte’ Stallworth, Reggie Brown, and Hank Baskett. Stallworth was injured when these teams first played, but Brown burned the Saints for 121 yards and a touchdown on six catches. Westbrook may not get as involved in the passing game as usual, however, because the Saints are one of the top teams at stopping passes to wide receivers. (Likewise, the Saints love to throw to Reggie Bush, and the Eagles are also one of the top defenses against passes to running backs.)

The Eagles were the best offense in the league on first downs. The passing game wasn’t quite as efficient on second and third down, but the running game on thirdand-long is exceptional. Westbrook is excellent on draws, and Garcia, like McNabb before him, is always a threat to run for a first down if he can’t find anyone open. This is a big advantage for the Eagles, as New Orleans had a terrible time stopping scrambles and draws on third-and-long.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL The Saints had one of the best passing games in the NFL this year. Drew Brees was an MVP candidate and had a variety of weapons to throw to: Bush coming out of the backfield, outstanding rookie possession receiver Marques Colston, breakout speedster Devery Henderson, and the face of the Saints franchise, veteran Joe Horn.

Horn gained 110 yards and scored two touchdowns in the first meeting of these teams, but he has played just three of the last nine games, and is once again listed as questionable due to a groin injury.

Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to throw complicated blitzes at opponents, but that may not work so well against the Saints, who have a much improved offensive line and backs who can block. The Saints’ offense had the fourth-lowest adjusted sack rate, a stat which measures sacks per pass play adjusted for situation and opponent.

The Eagles do have problems against the run, often leaving holes with their big blitzes and struggling to wrap up on tackles. The Eagles are probably more susceptible to the straight-ahead style of Deuce McAllister rather than the shifty boom-and-bust style of Reggie Bush. The Eagles are strong against runs around the ends as well as passes to running backs (as noted above), but they are weaker against runs up the middle. The exception is in short-yardage situations, when the Eagles allowed only 53% of runs to convert, fourth in the NFL.

OUTLOOK That last-minute field goal that gave New Orleans a 27–24 win also gave them the playoff tiebreaker over Philadelphia, along a week of rest and the homefield advantage in a sure-to-beemotional Superdome. That’s enough to make the Saints a slight favorite in an otherwise even matchup.