Footballs usually take funny bounces, but sometimes they bounce exactly in the directions they’re supposed to. There were plenty of weird bounces in the weekend’s NFC divisional games, but in the end the ball wound up where it was supposed to be and the home teams — the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears — won by exactly the home-field margin and almost exactly the score, 27–24, that they were supposed to win by.

What this means, of course, is that on a neutral field, all four teams were just about equal, and if it hadn’t been for the home field advantage both games might still be going on right. The thrillers were great news for lovers of interesting football and more exciting than either of the AFC matchups. But it’s very bad news for fans of either the Chicago Bears or New Orleans Saints, who meet next weekend to decide which will represent their conference in the Super Bowl, and for the National Football Conference itself, which will apparently wind up the season with a champion that is really no better than several teams that didn’t make it for one reason or another.

The Philadelphia Eagles didn’t make it because after a heroic second-half comeback under substitute quarterback Jeff Garcia (a comeback that included a victory in last week’s Wild Card playoff game against the Giants), the Eagles reverted to form in their big moment. With 3:24 on the clock and New Orleans up by three and at Philadelphia’s 32, quarterback Drew Brees inexplicably did the Eagles a huge favor by pitching the ball backward to Reggie Bush, who lost the handle, and the Eagles recovered at their own 44-yard line. (I haven’t a clue as to why a team trying to run out the clock in that situation would attempt a pitchout, let alone a pitchout deep in its own backfield. The game announcers had no clue, either.)

Philadelphia proceeded to lose one yard in the next three plays, and then, on the biggest pass of his career, Garcia, on fourth-and-11 with a Saints tackler reaching for him, drilled a completion at the Saints 30-yard line. It looked like a setup for, at worst, a game-tying field goal or, at best, a game-winning touchdown, as Garcia had riddled the Saints secondary for 240 yards on 29 throws. Then, suddenly, it was as if the Eagles woke up and remembered they were the Eagles. Philadelphia had drawn just two flags all afternoon (to the Saints’ six), but guard Scott Young chose that play for a false start, and it came back. Scott Young’s little five-yard penalty was the most important of the season for the Eagles, and the catch that accompanied it instantly became invisible. To the football world, it officially never happened. The Eagles ended up punting, and their offense never got the ball again.

In both NFC games, the home team was outplayed. The Eagles had 80 more yards than New Orleans, but could never quite take control. In Chicago yesterday, the Bears outgained the Seattle Seahawks by 65 yards, but never looked like the best team on the field, particularly in the second half, when they were outscored 10–3. Once again, their quarterback, Rex Grossman, was mediocre in a big game, gaining 282 yards but having to throw 38 times to get them, including an interception at the Seahawks fiveyard line early in the fourth quarter on an unforced and ill-considered throw.

More distressing for Chicago fans was the failure of their defense to contain an equally mediocre passer, Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck. The Bears coasted the first half of the season through a weak conference on the strength of a defense whose coverages were more difficult to read than a New York Post editorial. If they make it to the final game, they will be the team with the worst passer to play for the NFL championship since the 1963 Chicago Bears won with Bill Wade. The ’63 Chicago team had a legendary defense that was designed by George Allen and took opponents until the following season to solve. But in the modern game, you can study coverages and blitzes with so many cameras from so many different angles that offensive coordinators can figure these things out in a matter of weeks — which is what happened to the Bears in the second half of this season.

The Saints would have preferred to play the Seahawks in the conference title game next Sunday if only because that game would have been played in New Orleans. But there’s no reason why the Saints should feel confused or intimidated playing the Bears in Chicago. Right now they’re the better team with the better quarterback, Drew Brees, quite possibly the best passer in the league this year, and in Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, both better, faster, and more versatile backs than the Bears’ Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, the Saints won’t waste too much time trying to read the Bears’ coverages: They’ll make the Bears waste energy trying to figure out their formations. Saints by six.

Mr. Barra is the author of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”