San Diego’s Brees Rising to the Top
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Following a 42-14 shellacking of the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, the San Diego Chargers stand at 5-3 and are tied for the lead in the AFC West. They’ve already won more games than they did all of last season, and certainly more than oddsmakers predicted they would coming into the season.
Part of the surprise is that the Chargers are winning with the pass more than with their outstanding young running back, LaDainian Tomlinson. Quarterback Drew Brees is having a phenomenal season, with his TD-to-INT ratio of 14-to-3 second only to the Colts’ Peyton Manning and a passer rating of 106.8 that ranks him third behind Manning and Minnesota’s Daunte Culpepper.
With Brees on pace to throw for 3,194 yards, the Chargers may be wondering if they made a massive mistake on draft day when they picked quarterback Eli Manning and dealt him to the Giants for another rookie quarterback, Philip Rivers, and a selection of additional picks. How would the Chargers look today with phenom receiver Roy Williams added to their receiver corps, or safety Sean Taylor roaming the secondary, or tackle Robert Gallery helping to protect Brees and make holes for Tomlinson?
The Chargers could have used any of these players to improve other aspects of the team if only they had expected this kind of turnaround from Brees. But was there any reason to expect such a thing?
Well, maybe not a season quite this good. But there were a number of indicators pointing to the possibility that Brees and the Chargers’ offense would have a much better season.
In 2003, the Chargers’ passing game was one of the worst in the NFL when it came to converting third downs. Even a small improvement in that department can become a major improvement in total offense. Suddenly, a few drives that ended early get a chance to go longer, and that could mean anything from a few extra yards to a touchdown. As a general rule, offenses that are among the league’s worst in converting third downs tend to improve the next season, while offenses that are among the league’s best tend to decline.
Last season, Brees converted only 23 of 102 third-down passes into first downs or touchdowns. This season he’s 27 out of 58, including 15 to the NFL’s hottest young tight end, Antonio Gates. On the whole, both rushing and passing, the Chargers have improved their conversion rate on third down from 31.5% to 43%.
A look back at quarterbacks of the past might also have hinted that the Chargers were giving up on Brees a bit too early. As a general rule, young quarterbacks who are not named Roethlisberger do not play particularly well in their first few seasons, but they do usually improve each year. That was not the case with Brees, who dropped from a mediocre passer rating of 76.9 in 2002 to a miserable 67.5 last season. This kind of regression by a young quarterback is uncommon, but not unheard of, and a look at NFL history should have clued the Chargers in to the idea that Brees would bounce back.
There are a number of quarterbacks who, like Brees, turned in a league-average performance in their first full seasons as the starter, then took a step backward instead of a step forward. Among the names on this list is one of particular interest to Chargers fans: Stan Humphries.
In 1992, his first season as the starter in San Diego, Humphries completed an impressive 58% of his passes for 3,356 yards and 16 touchdowns. Like Brees, he took a step backward the following year, completing 53% of his passes for 1,981 yards and only 12 touchdowns. Like Brees, he had to share time with another quarterback after he faltered (Doug Flutie for Brees, John Friesz for Humphries).
Then, in 1994, installed as the starter from the beginning of the year, Humphries led the Chargers to their only Super Bowl appearance. His numbers didn’t compare to what Brees is doing right now, but they were back to the level of 1992.
Another quarterback with a career path similar to Brees’s was Washington’s Mark Rypien. Rypien’s first full-time season as the starter with the Redskins was 1989, during which he completed 59% of his passes for 3,768 yards. But he struggled with injuries in 1990,playing only 11 games and completing only 55% of his passes for 2,070 yards, eventually giving way to a second-year backup – Stan Humphries.
In 1991, back as the starter for Washington, Rypien rebounded to complete 59% of his passes for 3,564 yards and a career-high 8.5 yards per pass. That year, the Redskins went 14-2, won the Super Bowl, and are now considered one of the greatest teams of all time.
Of course, not every quarterback who had a similar two-year stretch made the Super Bowl in his third season. The list of similar quarterbacks includes a number of players who had long careers during which they never quite reached Pro Bowl status: Steve DeBerg, Jeff George, Jake Plummer, among others. But with one exception, Tony Eason of the mid-1980’s New England Patriots, each of the quarterbacks on the list rebounded to have fairly long and at least marginally successful careers.
The Chargers can enjoy their run this season, and perhaps an unexpected trip to the playoffs, but in the long term they have backed themselves into a corner. In Rivers, they have a multi-million dollar young quarterback sitting on the bench while a veteran has put them back in contention with a performance that matches the league’s top quarterbacks.
At the end of the season, Brees will be a free agent and will likely be the top commodity on the market for 2005. His numbers say that he will be a quality starter for whichever team offers him the most attractive contract. And with Philip Rivers, the Chargers will return to square one.
Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.