Santana Approaching Overlooked Milestone

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The New York Sun

With all the talk surrounding Ichiro Suzuki’s chase for George Sisler’s hits record and Barry Bonds’s quest for 700, 714, and every number beyond, baseball observers have stayed quiet as one player approaches a very impressive milestone. If Twins ace Johan Santana throws at least six innings and give up three or fewer runs Sunday at Baltimore, he will tie Mike Scott with 20 consecutive quality starts, the most since 1972, the first year for which such statistics are readily available.


The “quality start” is a relatively new statistic that was created with the intent of seeking out consistent pitchers. To achieve a quality start, a pitcher much throw at least six innings and allow three or fewer runs. While that can add up to a 4.50 ERA – and isn’t exactly fair to a player who pitches shutout ball for 5 2 /3 innings – it is still useful for determining which pitchers, day in and day out, give their teams a good chance at winning.


The stat can also be better than ERA in some cases. Imagine, for the sake of argument, two pitchers: One logs three starts, pitching six innings and allowing three runs in each game; the other pitches seven shutout innings in two games, but allows nine runs in four innings in the third. Both of these pitchers will have identical innings and ERA totals, but while one has given his team a good chance to win all three games, the other has nearly assured his team of at least one loss. By measuring the number of quality starts, the first pitcher’s consistent performance is rewarded.


Santana, of course, doesn’t need the leeway provided by the standards of the quality start. The American League’s best pitcher, he has allowed more than two runs in a start just once since his 19-game streak began – in Oakland on August 7 – and has failed to pitch at least seven innings only twice. His ERA has plunged from 5.51 to 2.76, a figure that leads the league by more than half a run over runner-up Jake Westbrook.


Nineteen games in a row. That means no days in three months when Santana’s stuff just wasn’t there. No days when his fastball didn’t have bite. No days when he missed with one pitch that someone deposited in the stands with a couple guys on base.


Look at the pitchers Santana has surpassed on the quality start list. There’s Dwight Gooden and his unbelievable second season, when Doc was 24-4 with a 1.66 ERA and struck out 268 batters in 276 2 /3 innings. Part of the proud early history of baseball in Montreal, Steve Rogers arrived as a rookie in July 1973, and went 10-5 down the stretch with a 1.34 ERA in 134 innings. Then in 1978 Rogers went 13-10 with a 2.47 ERA, yet only managed to go 9-6 during his streak of 17 straight quality starts.


Two years ago, Curt Schilling posted a 23-7 record, hurling 259.1 innings with 316 strikeouts and a 3.23 ERA. He would have won the Cy Young, but Randy Johnson went 24-5 with 334 strikeouts and a 2.32 ERA. Johnson never managed Schilling’s consistency that year, however.


Interestingly, after Schilling left for Boston in 2003, another D-Back pitcher scaled the list of consecutive quality starts, but it’s probably not who you think. Yes, Brandon Webb racked up last year’s highest total with 13 quality starts in a row. Even more impressive, Webb’s streak started in his second major league start on April 27 and lasted until the All-Star break, an amazing accomplishment for a player who effectively skipped Triple-A. Despite his string of consistency and a 2.84 ERA, Webb finished the season a mere 10-9, a situation that has worsened this year: With virtually no run support, Webb is 6-15 despite a 3.64 ERA,19th in the NL.


It’s not surprising that Greg Maddux makes this list, but it’s interesting that his streak came in 1997 and not during his amazingly dominating 1994 (1.56 ERA) and 1995 (1.63) seasons. With those two years cut short by the strike, Maddux was only able to accumulate his 17 straight quality starts during his 19-4, 2.20 ERA campaign. Maddux, however, finished second in the Cy Young race that year, behind young Expo Pedro Martinez.


Santana has been more consistent than all these great players, but he’s still one game short of Mike Scott, who went 18-10 with a 2.22 ERA and 305 strikeouts in 275 innings during his Cy Young-winning 1986 season. Scott, however, had two distinct advantages over Santana. First, he was pitching in the Astrodome, one of the greatest pitcher’s parks ever built. Second, he was pitching in a league in which the league ERA was 3.61.


Since a quality start measures simply innings and runs, it’s not taking league averages into account, but Santana’s accomplishment is all the more impressive because he’s pitching in a league with a 4.63 ERA, and makes his home starts in a mild hitter’s park. Scott was pitching in a time in which quality starts were much easier to come by. By contrast, Santana’s consistency has dwarfed the field; Jason Schmidt is second this year with just 10 consecutive quality starts.


Since his streak began, Santana is 16-2 with a 1.41 ERA, striking out 179 in 140.1 innings. Even if he doesn’t manage to tie Scott on Sunday, Santana’s streak will stand as more impressive than the erstwhile Astro’s, given how much harder it is to string together quality starts in today’s offensively overloaded games.



This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.


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