While the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture is so muddled that both local underachievers could squeeze in, the top of the bracket is no clearer. Although we can be reasonably confident that none of these teams are going to hold a championship celebration in mid June, we can’t be so sure which team is going to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

A quick glance at the standings illustrates the problem. The current eight qualifiers are separated by only six and half games; by contrast, the distance from the top (Dallas) to the bottom (Minnesota) of the bracket is almost three times larger — 18.5 games. In the East only four teams have a point differential of better than one point per game: Orlando (1.0), Cleveland, (2.5), Chicago (3.7) and Detroit (3.8). Moves at the trade deadline, injuries, and strength of schedule are going to be the biggest factors in determining the seeding. With Washington fading, and Orlando and Cleveland stuck in neutral, it looks like the race will come down to Detroit and Chicago.

As recently as four weeks ago, the smart money was on the Bulls to take the top seed in the conference. Chicago’s point differential dwarfed their competitors and this edition (Are they the Skiles Bulls? The Hinrich/Gordon/Deng Bulls? Just as the Dave Cowens-John Havlicek Celtics struggled in the shadow of the Russell teams, Chicago — even approaching their third straight postseason — has yet to shake the shadow of their championship years) of the Bulls is known for strong second-half charges. Two seasons ago, Chicago went 21–12 after the break to surge to the no. 4 seed. Last season, after most observers left them for lottery roadkill, they won 12 of their last 14 to claim the no. 7 seed and threw a wicked scare into the eventual champion Heat in their first-round series.

In addition to these factors, no NBA rumor mill is complete without some notion about Chicago trading the Knicks’ first-round draft pick plus some combination of their young stars and rookies either to Memphis for Pau Gasol or even to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett. Acquiring either player would be a boon for the Chicago offense. Chicago has only journeyman forward P.J. Brown to provide a consistent low-post offense. The team ranks 21st in Offensive Efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions), which is proof that you really can’t live on perimeter jump shots alone. With a better offense to go with their stellar defense (second in the league in Defensive Efficiency), the Bulls figured to rise to the top in the East.

All that reckoning was before Detroit made a move of its own, signing Chris Webber. At the time — about four weeks ago — it appeared to be a small gamble with little upside. Webber is 33 and has bad knees and limited mobility. He played in 18 games this season in Philadelphia before the Sixers bought out his contract, and he looked terrible, shooting only 38.7% from the field. The conventional wisdom was that he was done and that the return to his hometown was a better public relations move than a basketball decision.

Instead it’s worked out both ways. Webber is averaging 13.1 points and 7.3 boards per game with the Pistons while shooting 57.9% from the field. Since acquiring him, the Pistons have gone 11–4.

The Pistons are already in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, and it’s worth remembering that Detroit did win 64 games last season, so inclusion into the elite isn’t an unreasonable notion. Also, the Pistons still have a move to make. Webber’s arrival and his solid play has created a logjam in the pivot and someone, most likely center Nazr Mohammed, can be traded to fortify their backcourt or wing depth.

Although Detroit has the upper hand in trends and roster moves, the Bulls have the upper hand in schedule. Chicago has finished its most rigorous traveling, having completed its West Coast and Texas road trips. Detroit still has one trip to the West Coast and another tough run through San Antonio and Houston. That probably won’t be enough to diminish Detroit’s other advantages unless Chicago’s team president, John Paxson, makes a move to bolster his team’s offense and low post presence.

In the late 1980s and early ‘90s, Detroit and Chicago engaged in some memorable battles for Eastern Conference superiority. Now, albeit with teams that are nowhere near as storied, they’re on track for another Conference Finals showdown. At the moment, Detroit looks to be better, but the impact of the Webber acquisition in Motown is a cautionary tale of how quickly the balance of power can change.

mjohnson@nysun.com