At first glance, the NFC West is a close race between two teams that have not played up to expectations. But a closer look reveals that Seattle has been the best among the pack of NFC contenders looking up at Philadelphia, while the Rams have been one of the worst teams in football. Reality is obscured by the events of October 10, when Seattle’s defense abruptly collapsed with nine minutes left and a 17-point lead over the Rams, handing St. Louis a win and a better reputation than it deserves.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-3)

If Seattle hadn’t squandered that game, they’d be 6-2 with a commanding three-game lead in the division. Their loss to Arizona would be interpreted as a fluke, and NFL observers would unequivocally proclaim them the strongest NFC challenger to the dominant Eagles.

Instead, Seattle has gone from a popular Super Bowl pick to a team stuck with the dreaded title “enigma.” In fact, so many people have dismissed the Seahawks as overrated that they are now in the strange position of being underrated. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings, which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent, Seattle has played better than every team in the NFC except Philadelphia.

The Seahawks’ defense is not playing as well now as it did in the season’s first three games, but it is still much improved over last year. The offense has been surprisingly average all year, but finally showed signs of life in last week’s 42-27 win over the 49ers. Past trends say that the Seattle offense should return to being one of the NFL’s best over the final eight games.

Seattle is also helped by its remaining schedule, which projects as the NFL’s second-easiest thanks to a number of teams that our metrics expect to decline, including Atlanta, Minnesota, and St. Louis. The NFC West may seem close now, but by season’s end, Seattle should have a strong hold on the division title.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (4-4)

All those rosy predictions for Seattle become much less probable if the Rams manage to beat the Seahawks again this Sunday. But that scenario seems unlikely.

Without that first win over the Seahawks, the Rams would be 3-5 and in the ignoble position of being tied with Arizona. Instead, they are a playoff contender despite terrible performance on special teams and the worst defense in football. According to DVOA, 11 teams with losing records have played better than the Rams this season.

Rams fans must wonder if ex-defensive coordinator Lovie Smith replaced his old players with mannequins when he left to coach in Chicago. The Rams defense is allowing a ton of yardage, and their ability to force turnovers has disappeared faster than “Fahrenheit 9/11” at an Alabama movieplex. Last year, the Rams led the NFL with 46 takeaways – 24 interceptions and 22 fumble recoveries. This year they have two interceptions and five fumble recoveries.

Before last week, Rams fans could at least take heart that the “Greatest Show on Turf” was once again worthy of its name. Now they have to ponder the struggles of their offense against a Patriots secondary made up of an undrafted rookie, a practice-squad refugee, and a wide receiver playing cornerback for the first time. At least the ground game provides reason for optimism, as Marshall Faulk has rebounded from an injury-plagued 2003 and rookie Steven Jackson has shown Pro Bowl potential in relief.

Even if the Rams were playing like a real 4-4 team instead of a lucky 2-6 team, they would wind up staring up at Seattle thanks to a difficult second-half schedule that includes chilly November trips to Green Bay and Buffalo, along with home games against the Jets and Eagles.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-5)

This year has been dedicated to shaping this franchise in the image of new head coach Dennis Green. While 3-5 would be a disappointment for most teams, in Arizona it is a sign that the personality transplant is working. Cardinal fans might even think that their team has a reasonable shot at the playoffs now that star wide receiver Anquan Boldin has returned from injury. They are advised not to get their hopes too high.

The Arizona offense is better than last season, but this improvement means nothing more than a move from worst in the league to almost-worst in the league. The Arizona offense is supposed to be built around three young, fast wide receivers who spread the field, but QB Josh McCown is still king of the dump-off pass. Boldin’s first two games have not seen much progress, and rookie wideout Bryant Johnson may be as big a first-round bust as Boldin was a second-round steal.

As for the running game, many column inches have been wasted on the idea that Emmitt Smith is somewhat rejuvenated this season. His total rushing yards are a mirage caused by spreading poor performance over a significant number of opportunities, plus one very good game against a New Orleans defense that would give up 100 yards to a junior varsity team. According to Running Back Success Rate, which measures running back consistency based on the down and distance for each situation, Smith has been successful on only 38% of his carries, making him the second-worst back in the league.

Green’s arrival was supposed to lift up the Arizona offense, but it is the Arizona defense that has improved with the help of first-time defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast. Arizona’s top-10 defensive performance is likely to fade over the season’s second half, however. Like the Giants, Arizona has had trouble stopping teams in the red zone; this defensive inconsistency usually leads to second-half problems.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-7)

The 2004 49ers saw the bill finally come due for years of salary cap manipulation, turning last year’s 7-9 underachievers into a 1-7 disaster. From day one of this season, the 49ers have been playing for 2005, so their second half should be no different than their first.

The Niners entered the year with a starting lineup filled by young players who spent their early years as backups. The goal this season was to figure out which of these players could be starters on the next successful 49ers team, and which would need to be replaced. At least one player has stepped forward as a future star, provided he can avoid injuries: quarterback Tim Rattay.

Measured on a play-by-play basis by our DVOA statistic, Rattay has been one of the 10 best QBs in football this year, averaging 287 yards per game, with four interceptions and nine touchdowns in five starts. His time out of the lineup due to minor injuries has further demonstrated his abilities, because backup Ken Dorsey has been abysmal with the same offensive line and receivers.

The running game has been equally as disappointing. Kevan Barlow, who once was effective as part of a rushing duo with Garrison Hearst, has been awful as a full-time starter. He’s the only back in the league with a lower Running Back Success Rate than Emmitt Smith. Barlow is too young to have broken down completely, however, and it’s likely his drop from 5.1 yards per carry last year to 3.6 yards per carry this year is at least partially due to a poor offensive line.

Defense is also the source of very little hope; only a couple of turnovers have kept the 49ers from surpassing the Rams as the league’s worst defense. It didn’t help things when linebacker Julian Peterson, by far the team’s best defensive player, was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.