The Second Coming of Darko
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
Darko lives!
Darko Milicic, widely regarded as the biggest bust in one of the richest drafts in NBA history, is starting to show that he belongs among the NBA’s elite young players. This might come as a surprise to most, considering that Milicic, the second overall pick in the 2003 draft, did little in his first 2 1/2 pro seasons other than sit at the end of the Pistons’ bench while his fellow lottery picks – LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade – established themselves as All-Stars. But ever since the February 15 trade that sent Milicic to Orlando, the 20-year-old Serbian has come on like gangbusters.
In seven games, Milicic is averaging 20.5 minutes, 7.0 points, 5.3 boards, and 2.0 blocked shots, and he’s shooting 57.9% from the field. It’s a stark contrast to the 5.6 minutes, 1.5 points, and 1.1 boards he averaged in 25 games with the Pistons this season.
Milicic’s per-40 minute averages in Orlando – 13.7 points, 10.3 boards, and 3.9 blocks – are very impressive relative to the league. In fact, the pivotman has a 19.0 Player Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger’s per-minute tally of a player’s production) in those seven games, which over the entire season would rank him behind only Ziggy Ilgauskus and the O’Neals among Eastern Conference centers. All this is almost enough to warrant an investigation into the water on those Detroit-to-Orlando flights. Is it spiked with Red Bull?
The issue of sample size must be taken into account, of course. Milicic’s fine performance is only seven games old, six when you consider that he played only five minutes in his first game with the Magic. But there are several reasons to interpret his fine play as the real thing.
To begin with, he’s only 20, and a look at similar players’ career arcs indicates that it’s rare for a youngster to suddenly go cold just as he’s hitting his stride. Also, while Milicic may not be able to maintain his remarkable shooting percentage – that stat is prone to great fluctuation – he has solid rebounding and blocked-shot tallies, and those are more consistent from season to season. Milicic’s offensive rebounding (he’s averaging 3 per game with Orlando) is an especially strong indicator of his ability to hustle and work within the offensive scheme.
Additionally, anyone who’s watched Milicic with the Magic can attest that the numbers aren’t lying. Whereas he looked lost whenever he came onto the floor during his two seasons under Larry Brown, frequently heaving shots from beyond his range, in Orlando he’s running the floor with purpose, crashing the boards, and mixing it up with opponents inside. Milicic’s play will likely fluctuate as the league takes note that he’s more than a kid with a good seat at Pistons games, but a 20-year-old center with a PER of 19.0 will have far-reaching effects on the game.
There are two important conclusions to be drawn from Milicic’s career to date. First, he is the latest and most potent reminder that young pivotmen need a longer incubation time than perimeter players.
Teenage 7-footers don’t play against opponents of their size very often, so they don’t have to be as fundamentally sound as their smaller counterparts. But athletic pivotmen abound in the NBA, and a lengthy period of acclimation usually ensues. Dallas’s DeSagana Diop, Boston’s Kendrick Perkins, and Seattle’s Robert Swift have all started to emerge from their cocoons this season, though none have enjoyed a stretch like Milicic’s last two weeks. This should make teams that much more interested in gambling on young pivotmen.
The second key lesson is that analysts need to be wary of drawing too many conclusions from garbage-time minutes. What little burn Milicic received in Detroit was usually near the end of blowout wins, thus earning him the moniker “human victory cigar.” True, Milicic failed to make the most of his playing time in Detroit, but he was painfully aware that his opportunity to succeed was limited, and that was reflected in his effort. While it’s preferable to see a player give 100% all the time, one that isn’t playing hard when it’s not warranted isn’t necessarily a bust.
Despite Milicic’s second coming, the Magic are nearly as bad as the Knicks: They’d lost 17 of their last 19 games going into Monday night’s contest against Utah. Still, Orlando fans can look forward to years of Dwight and Darko dominating the paint for them. With a bundle of cap room in 2007, the Magic could turn into an Eastern Conference power quickly.
