1. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY
JOCKEY TRAINER MORNING LINE ODDS
Mark Guidry Bill Kaplan 20–1

I have yet to understand what this horse is doing in Grade 1 company. He lollygagged in last place for most of the Derby and then managed to stroll up into fourth after the turn. In the stretch, he swung out and seemed to pick up the pace a little bit, having found himself alone out there on the outside fence. There’s a way of analyzing races that accounts for how far off the rail the horse was running: If you consider he only lost by 8 1/2 lengths and then factor in that he was running 10 wide and award him a length for every path off the rail … oh my … stop the presses! This horse actually won the derby!

2. TIAGO
Mike Smith John Shirrefs 10–1

He should be fresh after skipping the Preakness. Although his Derby was unimpressive, he has a good late foot, and he will relish the distance. Mike Smith ought to be able to pilot him to a pretty good spot on the stretch. The key: The stretch at Belmont is loooooooooong. Really, really long. If Curlin (or, I suppose, whichever horse is in the lead) is struggling, tired from a rough trip, or too distracted to stay on task, the door will open for a horse like Tiago to weave his way to the front and slip past. He’ll pretty much have to time it so it’s a surprise, though, because if he gives Curlin or Rags to Riches a chance to dig in, he’s toast.

3. CURLIN
Robby Albarado Steve Asmussen 6–5

What a performance. This horse should have flopped in the Derby. Instead, he rallied to get a piece of the money and came in third. He got passed like he was a lamppost in the Preakness, and when Albarado got him to switch leads on the stretch, he took off like a shot and caught Street Sense. There was a lot of reason to doubt him coming into the Triple Crown, but going out of it he’s a full-blown Stakes running champion. However, even the best horses can take a step backward. He’s improved so much, so fast, it’s as if he’s packed a whole year’s worth of racing into two starts. That’s bound to boggle him eventually. Curlin might lose one more race this year — but I wouldn’t assume it was going to be Saturday.

4. CP WEST
Edgar Prado Nick Zito 12-1

Zito and owner Robert LaPenta took a chance entering him in the Preakness, and it paid off. Not big time, but he bought some hay coming in fourth and showed a marked improvement. He’ll need to take another step forward to get up into the money tomorrow, and that’s a lot to ask. But he’s a good closer, and he runs to improve his position in every race he enters. If there are pieces left to be picked up, he’s a good bet to grab them. If the top three are charging abreast down the stretch, he won’t catch any of them.

5. SLEW’S TIZZY
Rafael Bejarano Greg Fox 20-1

Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes running in the front, and so did Seattle Slew, but that’s really not an ideal strategy. The horse with the lead at the first call tomorrow is not going to be the horse going under the wire. Slew’s Tizzy has been granted a slight reprieve by the late attrition of Digger, but he’s still in the unfortunate position of inheriting the pace of the race. He’s a good horse. He’ll win a lot of races, just not tomorrow. The question is whether Slew’s Tizzy can hang on for a piece of the money, and if there was money for last place, the answer would be yes.

6. HARD SPUN
Garret Gomez Larry Jones 5–2

Hard Spun has run excellent races. That he held on at all after setting the pace in the Derby was impressive, that he held on to open up almost six lengths on Curlin even more so. At Pimlico, he showed versatility and composure by rating while the speed horses blew through the early fractions. That he couldn’t stop the late charge of Street Sense, or the closing kick of Curlin is hardly a knock against him. He’s done nothing but show himself to be the real thing: gutsy, strong, and willing. He’s slated to retire at the end of this season, with breeding deals lined up pending the results of tomorrow’s race, so his opportunities will be few. Maybe the jockey change will do it, maybe the softer workout will do it. He’s a great colt, and one of these days things will fall his way.

7. RAGS TO RICHES
John Velasquez Todd Pletcher 3–1

Don’t think for a second that Pletcher is skimming the bottom of his barrel with this filly, or grasping at straws. Rags to Riches is the real thing. Her mid pack-rating style ought to keep her out of trouble, and her closing kick is really something. She has yet to be asked for all she’s got, and she has yet to disappoint. She’s a very interesting addition to this race, and she will figure. Her jump on the outside to the Kentucky Oaks was breathtaking. Can she beat Curlin? If Curlin takes another step forward there isn’t a horse that could. But she can give him a run for the money. She’s certainly bred to run this race. It’s also worth considering the following: She is carrying 121 pounds, and the colts all have 126. The longer the race, the more that matters. Furthermore, these are the best odds you’re likely to ever get on her.

Bettor’s Box

Saturday’s race presents a classic gambling problem. Not the kind that warrants telephone calls to relatives or interventions, mind you, the serious kind. Who do I think will win the race? Curlin. Am I willing to put money down on his nose? No. To bet Curlin — I mean, even if you win they’ll probably take money from you, right? He’s going to be at negative odds. I’ve got gambling to do, so I’m going elsewhere and leaving him out of the picks entirely. I’ll be rooting for him, of course, and I will play a trifecta with the three below wheeled under him.

I’ve got a handicapping competition to win: me versus gravity. For the Derby, I balled up slips of paper with the contenders’ names on them and tossed them out of my second story office window in the direction of a Kentucky Derby glass, I did the same for the Preakness, at which Sir Isaac Newton demonstrated himself a pretty sharp handicapper. He had Curlin in the place spot, and that won him $19, while I didn’t cash a ticket. I did, however, come into the race with some money, and my three $10 wagers put me back down to -1.

The drink out at the Big Sandy is Dale DeGroff’s wonderful Belmont Breeze (whiskey mixed with Harvey’s Bristol Cream, juices, and soda). The glass in the yard. Seven little balls of paper are wadded in my hand. It’s a long race, so I moved the glass a little further from the window. The excitement here is tangible.

SIR ISAAC’S PICKS:

WIN: Tiago (clearly gravity is just trying to dig himself out of this losing streak by picking a long shot … but you know, long shots do alright at the Belmont.)
PLACE: Rags to Riches
SHOW: CP West

Most interesting is that Sir Isaac picked Slew’s Tizzy to come in last, as did I.

WATMAN’S PICKS:

WIN: Rags to Riches — These are the best odds you’re ever going to get on this filly, especially if she wins this race. She’s got the breeding, there won’t be a lot of traffic problems, so the chances of her getting bumped or intimidated are few. She’s been bred for this. It’s Curlin’s race to lose, but it’s called gambling, not winning.
PLACE: Hard Spun — He’s got guts. He pours his heart out everytime. I think he’s still going to chase someone down the stretch, but you cannot count him out at this point.
SHOW: CP West — Nice move in the Preakness to get up for fourth. Since Street Sense isn’t out front on the stretch pulling this race, his closing kick ought to get him a little further up the track.

This is our final installment, we’ll tally up our $10 bets, win place and show, and add them into our final scores in Monday’s paper.