Lance Armstrong will leave the starting gate of the Tour de France tomorrow not just as the six-time defending champion, but as a professional athlete on the brink of retirement. On July 24, whether he enters Paris wearing the yellow jersey of the race’s leader or not, he will retire from professional cycling.

Historically, cycling’s great champions have not fared well in their last Tour; all were soundly beaten by younger men. The exception was Bernard Hinault in 1986, who won four stages and finished second to Greg LeMond, but that Tour was dominated by the controversy over which of the two was actually the La Vie Claire team’s leader. For Armstrong to go out a winner would be as unprecedented as his sixth Tour victory was last year.

The 33-year-old Texan is the odds-on favorite, but his 2005 campaign so far has been a bit dispiriting – he has yet to win a race or a stage. After looking out of shape at the cycling season’s traditional kick-off, Paris-Nice in March, he fared better helping his Discovery Channel teammate George Hincapie in the Tour of Flanders in April. But he was certainly far less prepared then he realized later that month at the Tour of Georgia, where he lost 1:46 in the time trial to Floyd Landis (Phonak).

Armstrong finally looked fit at his final Tour tune-up, the Dauphine Libere in early June, though he lost the time trial by 26 seconds to Santiago Botero (Phonak), then was dropped on Mont Ventoux by Alexandre Vinokourov (TMobile). Armstrong showed in the Dauphine that he could ratchet up the cadence when he needed to. But it would have quieted a lot of talk had he taken just one stage of the race.

Perhaps he is just playing a waiting game: He lost last year’s Dauphine to a peaking Iban Mayo (Euskaltel) and cruised through the Tour two weeks later. We can draw any lesson we like from Armstrong’s 2005 season, and he remains the expected winner of the Tour de France.

THE RIVALS

Armstrong’s main rivals are Ivan Basso (CSC),Vinokourov, and Jan Ullrich (T-Mobile). It is possible to imagine the Texan racing exactly as he wants to and finishing third or fourth. He’s 33 – of the great Tour champions, only Fausto Coppi won the race at this age – and his rivals are in their prime.

If it weren’t for Armstrong’s run of dominance, Basso would be the smart money in 2005. He was the only racer who could stay with Armstrong in the high hills last July. His downfall was time trialing, which he has worked very hard to improve. He has a new time-trial bicycle, a new aerodynamic position, and stronger lower-back and upper-body muscles to hold the tuck longer. The work paid off in the Giro d’Italia, where he took second and first in two long time trials.

Basso was the dominant racer in the Italian tour and only failed to win because a flu virus in the middle of the three-week race cost him close to an hour in the standings. He raced through the pain, garnering respect from his peers and the adulation of the Italian fans as he took two stages in the last week of the Giro. If he can rediscover this form for the Tour, he has a serious chance to win.

Vinokourov was the one of the great stories of the 2003 Tour when he was able to attack and drop all his rivals in the mountains. He was denied a chance in 2004 after tearing ligaments in his shoulder during a crash in the Tour de Suisse, but he has looked very good this year. He was the strongest man in the tough one-day classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and was climbing well in June when he dropped Armstrong et al on the Ventoux. He claims that the Tour is the only interest he has left in cycling. His attacking energy will animate the tour.

Ullrich, too, has singularly dedicated himself to this year’s tour, which is his last chance to avoid going down as one of the great could-have-beens, a footnote to Armstrong’s dazzling run. But Der Kaiser does not look physically ready for the Tour de France; as in past years, he has far too few races under his belt this season. In typical form in June, he dominated a time trial in the Tour de Suisse, only to be easily dispatched in the high mountains.

Three of these four riders ought to be on the podium on July 24, but the favorites falter every year. Last year, the early contenders were Armstrong, Ullrich, Tyler Hamilton, and Mayo; only Armstrong performed as expected. Any number of riders could step up this year. Mayo, who has held back all season in hopes of peaking in July, is well worth marking, especially when the race comes to the Pyrenees, where he is the local favorite. Alejandro Valverde (Iles Balears), is a limitlessly talented Spaniard who, with Armstrong’s teammate Yaroslav Popovych, represents the future of the Tour. The climbing ability of Roberto Heras (Liberty Seguros) always makes him a threat.

THE COURSE

As usual, the organizers have devised an inventive and interesting Tour. It begins with a 19-kilometer time trial instead of a prologue – the longest opener since 1967 – which means that the race stands a good chance of seeing one of its top contenders in yellow on the first day. If Armstrong wins, there will be talk of him leading the race from start to finish, something that has not happened since before World War II.

The opening week is highlighted by stages for the sprinters and the team time trial (July 5). Stages 8 and 9 (July 9 and 10) are both hilly preludes to the Alps and could see some impressive attacks and breakaways, especially as there is a rest day on July 11. The top riders will likely wait for the high hills, and so the real racing will begin with Stage 10, 193 kilometers ending with the mountaintop finish of Courchevel. Throughout his reign, Armstrong has used the first mountain stage to put his stamp on the Tour, and everyone expects him to do the same here. Stage 11 has two beyond-category – the highest rating – climbs, but ends with a long downhill, so the main players will stay together and await the Pyrenees to make their attacks.

The three Pyrenean stages (July 16, 17, and 19) should prove the decisive moments of the 2005 Tour. The first day has two huge climbs that will punish the weak – the 15-km Port de Pailheres at 8% grade and the 9-km Ax-3-Domaines at 7.3%. The following day is about length: six climbs in succession, with 16,000 feet of hill to power a bicycle over. By day’s end the strongmen of the Tour should be clear. The last day in the Pyrenees is more suited to a long breakaway from a rider who has missed a chance at overall victory, but if the top five are close together in time, there could be more attacks.

There is a long time trial to follow – 55.5 kms on July 23 – which represents the last chance for the riders at the top of standings to move up or down. If Armstrong and Ullrich are within 30 or 40 seconds, it could be one for the ages. More likely, it will be Armstrong’s last stage victory in his storied career. On Sunday the 24th, the race finishes with the sprinters’ heaven of the Champs Elysees and with the Belgian Tom Boonen (Quick-Step) hoping to repeat last year’s win.

THE SPRINTERS

The flat stages should provide uncommon drama this year as the sport’s dominant closer, Alessandro Petacchi (Fassa-Bortolo), is giving the Tour a pass to prepare for the World Championships in Madrid. This makes the mass sprints less predictable and more fun. The Green Jersey – awarded to the rider who finishes the stages most consistently – is also up for grabs. The racers to watch are Stuart O’Grady (Cofidis), Robbie McEwen (Davitamon-Lotto), Baden Cooke (Francaise des Jeux), Thor Hushovd (Credit Agricole), and Tom Boonen (Quick-Step). The 6-foot-4-inch Boonen was invincible in the spring classics and should be able to make his avowed dream of winning the Green Jersey come true. But McEwen took three stages in the Giro and will make Boonen’s life difficult – he is the faster man in a straight-up 500-meter charge. Look for Boonen to use savvy and strength to overcome McEwen’s advantage.

OUTLOOK

There is no reason to think Armstrong won’t go out of cycling a winner. He has dominated the sport since 1999 and absolutely crushed the competition last year, taking six stages and winning the race by 6:19. He is characterized by a driving desire to win – a desire that will only burn brighter as he nears the end.

Of course, in 1996, it looked certain that Miguel Indurain would continue his run of dominance and win a sixth consecutive Tour de France. In the end, he finished 11th, more than 14 minutes back of Bjarne Riis, who is Basso’s team manager this year.

THE CLIMBERS

The climbers’ jersey – a hideous red-and-white polka dot – has become the preserve of popular riders on the verge of retirement. It never goes to one of the dominant climbers, who prefer to wait for the decisive cols rather than gain points on the early climbs – but rather to a good climber who has no shot at the overall prize. With Richard Virenque at last gone from the ranks of cycling, expect another French rider to give the hometown fans something to cheer about. It is after all 20 years since the last French victory – Hinault’s fifth in 1985 – and this is the only prize that the French riders have any hope of achieving. A rider from the following list would do well to claim the jersey and some lucrative sponsorship contracts in France: Laurent Brochard (Bouygues Telecom), David Moncoutie (Cofidis), Sylvain Chavanel (Cofidis), or Christophe Moreau (Credit Agricole).

The Tour de France is comprised of 21 stages, including three time trials, beginning tomorrow and ending July 24 in Paris. The race will be televised by the Outdoor Life Network.