For all the buzz surrounding no. 1 Wisconsin at no. 2 Ohio State and no. 3 Florida’s surprising loss on the Bayou, you’d think these teams were playing for their tournament lives. In reality, what’s at stake for these elite squads is nothing more than a one-spot swing in tournament seeding: Either they will get top seeds in their brackets, or they’ll nab no. 2s.

Recent tournament history suggests that nail-biting fans of these schools should channel their grief elsewhere. Last season, no no. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. And plenty of significantly lower seeds have made hay in recent seasons, including no. 11 George Mason’s Cinderella ride last year.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the teams projected to get lower tournament seeds that could nonetheless blow by expectations and advance to the Elite Eight and beyond. We’ll focus on teams that ranked outside the top 16 in the latest AP poll (the top four seeds in each bracket are protected from having to play earlyround games near the home court of their opponents, giving them an added edge).

Here are three to watch in March (these rankings do not reflect today’s new poll):

NO. 18 DUKE
22–7 (8–6 ACC)

When the Blue Devils extended their losing streak to four games on February 11 at Maryland, Duke fell out of the AP rankings for the first time in forever. Pollsters could forgive the loss to highly ranked North Carolina; they had less sympathy after losses to Virginia, Florida State, and Maryland. But just as everyone overrated Duke early in the year, the backlash against the Devils was also too strong. The ACC remains the glamour conference in college basketball, loaded with tough teams that can beat anyone on any given night. While only the Tar Heels bear the mark of basketball’s elite this year, a raft of other ACC squads figure to make the tourney and cause problems for opponents.

Despite all its problems this year, Duke is the best of all the others. With J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams in the pros, the Blue Devils lack the big-time scoring threats that carried them in recent seasons. Instead they’ve gone back to basics, deploying stifling defense. Duke ranks no. 3 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s stats at kenpom.com (trailing only Kansas and the archrival Heels). For all the talk of Greg Paulus’s erratic play, Josh McRoberts’s lack of aggression, and DeMarcus Nelson’s ill-suitedness for a go-to role, it’s sophomore forward David McClure who best defines this team. McClure averages just 4.8 points a game and is limited offensively by any standards. But he’s also a consummate glue guy — snatching loose balls, hounding opponents’ top scorers, and averaging more rebounds per 40 minutes than any Duke player despite his slender 6-foot-6-inch frame. He also shoots only when the odds are in his favor, hitting 55% from the field. His buzzerbeating layup to beat Clemson January 25 was classic McClure: It wasn’t pretty, but it was well executed and incredibly timely.

After four straight wins to turn their season back in the right direction, the Devils will lean on workmanlike efforts from McClure and company to power their tournament chances. A run of three or four straight last-minute wins is a distinct possibility for this unlikely underdog.

NO. 19 TEXAS
21–7 (11-3 Big 12)

We’ll probably learn more about the Longhorns in their final two games of the regular season than in the previous 28 combined. Texas’s schedule to date has featured mostly good but not great opponents, but the Longhorns end the year with a return engagement against no. 8 Texas A&M and at no. 6 Kansas.

Even the most devoted Sooner or Aggie fan will begrudgingly admit that Texas has scads of talent. Kevin Durant has to be Player of the Year, averaging nearly 25 and 11 a game in a loaded conference. Fellow freshman sensation D.J. Augustin has added just enough composure and smart decisionmaking to his natural ability to turn him into an elite point guard. But no one knows if Texas can beat the very best teams in the country — an 18-point loss at A &M earlier this month was a disappointment.

More than any team on this list, and most top programs in America, Texas suffers from the shortcomings of its coach. Rick Barnes has a sketchy tournament history. Moreover, his game-to-game strategy often looks iffy at best. That Barnes runs very few set plays to get Durant open and in prime scoring position says it all. How far can a team go when its coach doesn’t try to make life easier for the best player in the nation? Texas will be the biggest boom-or-bust team in the tournament — neither a firstround flameout nor a Final Four run would be surprising.

USC (UNRANKED)
21-8 (11-5 Pac-10)

Overshadowed by UCLA, Arizona, and even Washington State, Oregon, and Stanford this season, the Trojans could surprise the East Coast and Midwest-based pundits who rarely get to catch their games. Like Duke, USC relies on hounding defense, rolling up the no. 13 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rank in the country while battling high-flying offenses almost every night in the stacked Pac-10. When teams make more than 40% of their shots from the field (visiting California shot 42% Saturday), it’s treated as a letdown by defense-obsessed coach Tim Floyd.

The Trojans have three players who can carry their offense on any given night in Nick Young, Lodrick Stewart, and Gabe Pruitt. Young is a silky-smooth swingman and future first-round NBA draft pick who can hit from all angles, from onebounce foul-line jumpers going to his right to fadeaways in the corner, and he possesses one of the top three-point field-goal percentages in the Pac-10. Stewart broke USC’s all-time record for 3’s made Saturday and owns one of the purest shooting strokes anywhere. Pruitt is a combo guard who’s fueled the offense this season in the point guard role, after the tragic shooting death of incumbent point guard Ryan Francis in the off-season.

But USC’s chances could hinge on the fourth banana — freshman center Taj Gibson. The lanky pivotman always seems to play under control, which seems amazing until you remember that he’s a 21-year-old frosh. Gibson led the Trojans in both points and assists Saturday, routinely dishing to cutting teammates for easy hoops. He’ll need to stay out of foul trouble and continue his prolific shot blocking to help USC — the little guys alone probably won’t be enough against a Georgetown or Florida. When all hands are on deck, though, this is the most underrated team in any BCS conference, as season sweeps over high-powered Arizona and Oregon and two last-second losses to UCLA show. Save room in your brackets for the Trojans.

Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s “Page 2” and a contributor to YesNetwork.com.