Several Surprise Teams Storm Into Conference Play

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Next week marks the start of conference play for most of college basketball. Many situations figure to change over the next few months, as teams that got fat playing Sisters of the Poor get their comeuppance in Chapel Hill, Westwood, and Lawrence.

To get a better sense for the quality of team performances, let’s take a look at some advanced statistics found at my two favorite analytical sites, KenPom.com and Basketball State (bbstate.com). Go beyond the nation’s top dogs, and you’ll find several other teams flying under the radar and excelling at certain facets of the game. Here are some of those early movers.

WISCONSIN (9–2)

In recent years, the Badgers have built their reputation on coach Bo Ryan’s highly efficient swing offense, the recruitment of athletic guards who can score inside, and sharpshooting big men who can step out and hit threes. This season, Wisconsin figured to take a step back as star swingman Alando Tucker graduated to the NBA. But the Badgers have reinvented themselves as a defensive power. Wisconsin leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, holding opponents to just 39.3% on two-point shots. On the downside, Wisconsin is 0–2 against ranked teams this year, having dropped decisions to Duke and Marquette. A win on the road at no. 9 Texas this weekend would be huge.

ARIZONA (9–2)

The departure of several key players, combined with the rise of several Pac-10 rivals, figured to make Arizona an afterthought in the conference this year. When legendary coach Lute Olson announced he was taking the year off for personal reasons, things figured to get uglier for Arizona as it traversed its typically brutal schedule. But a funny thing has happened on the way to disappointment: The Cats are contenders yet again. Kevin O’Neill has done a great job of stabilizing the team as Olson’s replacement. Arizona ranks no. 8 in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Credit a team approach — the Cats are ninth in Division I in assist rate, with freshman point guard Jerryd Bayless leading an unselfish group of able distributors. Arizona’s already knocked off Texas A&M, with road wins over Illinois and UNLV. They’ll face another big test at Memphis Saturday.

NEBRASKA (9–2)

In a short span, the Oregon Ducks lost to Oakland University in Michigan and felt the wrath of a Nebraska team that’s no longer a Big 12 doormat. Nebraska’s senior center, Aleks Maric, is the elder statesman of an Australian invasion that’s taken the college hoops world by storm. Maric is averaging 16 points and 8.4 rebounds a game, with a 59% field goal percentage — he’s a strong bet to make all-Big 12 this year. Thanks largely to Maric’s inside presence, Nebraska has held opponents to just 33.5% shooting on two-point attempts, the lowest mark in the country. With Oklahoma State in a rebuilding year, look for Nebraska to battle Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Kansas State for the no. 3 slot in the loaded Big 12, behind Final Four contenders Kansas and Texas.

DRAKE (9–1)

The Missouri Valley Conference has gained more attention in recent years, thanks to the success of Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and other conference powers. This season, Drake has established itself as a potential heir to the MVC throne. Drake’s only loss came at St. Mary’s, a house of horrors for plenty of other opponents. But a road win over Iowa last time out raised the program’s already-rising profile. The stats back it up: Drake leads the country in the tempo-adjusted opponents’ turnover rate, ranking sixth in steal percentage. Basketball State’s rankings, which uses possession-based stats, emphasizes recent game results, and subtracts for poor homecourt play, pegs Drake as the no. 18 team in D–I.

SAM HOUSTON STATE (10-0)

Here’s another mid-major high achiever that fares well by the numbers. Basketball State places Sam Houston no. 5 in the overall rankings. The Bearkats place 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, leading the country in preventing opponents’ offensive rebounds and holding them to just 25% shooting behind the arc, second-best in America. Senior forward Ryan Bright stands just 6-foot-6-inches, and averages less than 29 minutes a game — yet he’s also eighth in D-I in rebounding, at 11.8 per game. Sam Houston State has already knocked off Texas Tech, Fresno State, and Central Florida, as well as Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Saint Louis on the road. This is the team you don’t want staring at you if you’re a no. 3 seed going up against a no. 14 in the first round of the NCAA tourney.

Notable Omission:

MISSISSIPPI (11–0)

Saturday’s win over then-no. 15 Clemson in Puerto Rico was solid, but there’s little else to recommend Ole Miss as an elite team — so far. Basketball State has Mississippi missing its Top 25 rankings. Wins over Lamar and Troy do little to inspire the imagination, and the Rebels have played just one true road game, at Central Florida. We might not learn much from conference play either, with the SEC West looking weak this season. This could be a high-seeded paper tiger come tournament time.

Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2.


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