Shaky Defense Likely To Hold Jets Back in 2005

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

The Jets spent the off-season diligently plugging one hole only to discover another one open up. The resulting team has a lot of talent, but the cracks in the foundation will undoubtedly show when the Jets play against the many strong teams littering their schedule. Here’s a look at Gang Green’s offensive and defensive units from top to bottom.


OFFENSE


The Jets made plenty of offensive changes, but most of them simply replaced one player with another similar player. Trading Santana Moss in order to reunite quarterback Chad Pennington with receiver Laveranues Coles was only an upgrade in chemistry; Moss’s numbers over the past two years are similar to Coles’s numbers before he left the Jets for Washington in 2003. New tight end Doug Jolley simply replaces what Anthony Becht did before the coaches lost confidence in him last season.


One similar replacement who makes a lot of sense is running back Derrick Blaylock, the ex-Kansas City backup who replaces LaMont Jordan for a lower price. Blaylock will play a big role on the team unless Curtis Martin can somehow turn back two incredibly strong historical trends: First, that running backs who go over 370 carries tend to get hurt or lose their effectiveness the following year; and second, that no running back in the past 15 years has made the league’s top 10 for rushing yards twice after the age of 30.


Last year, both the Jets and their fans became frustrated with the offensive style of coordinator Paul Hackett, which favored short passes, lots of runs, and a slow pace. Of course, that slow pace, as well as the 2004 schedule, masked the fact that the offense was quite successful. According to points scored per game, the Jets had the NFL’s 17th-ranked offense. But according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – the Jets had the NFL’s 5th-ranked offense. They scored fewer points because they ran fewer plays and played in a division with three of the NFL’s best defenses.


Despite this success, the Jets fired Hackett and brought in Mike Heimerdinger from the Tennessee Titans. Fans are excited about the change, but a study of offensive game pace in Pro Football Prospectus 2005 shows that the Jets and Titans are the only two offenses to have ranked among the NFL’s six slowest for five straight seasons.


Based on his play in the preseason, Pennington looks to be past the effects of the rotator cuff injury that robbed him of his ability to throw with velocity and distance at the end of last year. But those big chances Heimerdinger likes to take downfield on third down will wind up putting a lot of pressure on the Jets defense, dragging it back onto the field after a punt on fourth-and-two.


The other question for the Jets: will 2004 fourth-round draft pick Adrian Jones, who didn’t play a regular season down as a rookie, be able to replace right tackle Kareem McKenzie, who now shows up for work at the Giants locker room down the hall?


DEFENSE


The Jets took a step forward on defense last year thanks to their ability to stop the run, not the pass. They were fifth in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, but 18th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Those numbers don’t take into account a schedule filled with run-oriented offenses like Buffalo, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.


The Jets entered the off-season already knowing they had problems in the secondary. Veteran safety Reggie Tongue was released, cornerback Donnie Abraham was discussing retirement, and the other cornerback, David Barrett, would fit better as a nickelback. The Jets then tore a big hole in the middle of the run defense when they chose to franchise pass-rushing defensive end John Abraham instead of run stopping defensive tackle Jason Ferguson, who decamped to Dallas. Then on draft day, with these glaring needs staring them in the face, the Jets inexplicably used their first draft pick on kicker Mike Nugent.


The Jets did use later draft picks on players who could help the secondary, like cornerback Justin Miller and safeties Kelly Rhodes and Andre Maddox (the latter will miss the year with an injury). When Abraham finally made his retirement decision, the Jets decided to take a risk on Ty Law, whose body is made up of 95% future Hall of Fame cornerback and 5% questionably healthy foot.


During the preseason, Law demonstrated the intelligence that made him the game’s best cornerback before last year’s injury, but he’s lost much of his ability to change directions in coverage. If he can get even close to the player he was before the broken foot, he’s a huge upgrade over Abraham. But with the subpar Barrett still in the starting lineup, and inexperience at safety, the Jets could surrender some big games to good no 2. receivers.


Meanwhile, undersized career backup James Reed and oversized third round rookie Sione Pouha will try to replace Ferguson in the middle of the defensive line. Both looked passable in the preseason, but neither played at the level Ferguson did in 2004.


OVERALL


The biggest problem facing the Jets in 2005 is really no different from the biggest problem facing the Ravens or Broncos or Chargers. The AFC is simply stacked with too many good teams, and only six of them can make the playoffs.


To win the division title, the Jets have to beat last year’s Super Bowl champion, New England, and last year’s top-ranked defense, Buffalo. If they make the playoffs, Gang Green will inevitably run into an offense with talented second and third receivers who can make big plays without going near Law, and a running game that can move aside the Jets’ defensive line.


It’s not impossible to imagine the secondary stepping up its game and the players replacing Ferguson playing at a higher level than expected. But it’s not likely either, and therefore neither is a Jets Super Bowl appearance.



Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com


The New York Sun

© 2025 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  Create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use