Despite the Jets’ and Steelers’ divergent regular season records, their performance in context shows two teams that are virtually identical. Both prefer the ground game, ranking first and second in the percentage of plays where a running back carried the ball. Both have success passing when they need to, with quarterbacks that throw few interceptions.

Both score consistently by limiting red zone turnovers. Both excel at stopping opposing runners. Even their special teams are similar.

The one glaring difference is that the Steelers are far better when it comes to stopping the pass, and that – along with the bye week advantage – makes them heavy favorites.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL

In beating the Chargers, Chad Pennington threw with more authority than at any time since injuring his rotator cuff two months ago. A 47-yard touchdown throw to Santana Moss showed that Pennington’s shoulder can handle a long throw better than anyone thought; a 47-yard incompletion showed that Pennington isn’t limited to one such throw per game.

In the first game between these teams, won by Pittsburgh 17-6 in Week 14, Pennington completed only 17 of 31 pass attempts and threw three interceptions – one-third of his total for the entire season. But Pennington was certainly not the only quarterback to have a bad day against the Steelers defense, which allowed the fewest points in the league and ranked fourth in yards allowed per pass. Three Steelers made the Pro Bowl: linebackers James Farrior and Joey Porter and safety Troy Polamalu. Left end Aaron Smith should have made it as well; he had eight sacks, unheard of for a lineman in a 3-4 defense.

The ground attack is still New York’s bread and butter, but the battle with the Steelers front seven matches strength against strength. In the first game, the Steelers won this battle, limiting Curtis Martin to 72 yards on 24 carries. However, the Steelers weren’t able to stop another Jets strong suit: converting on third-and-short. The Jets were the best team in the NFL in such situations; in the first game against Pittsburgh, they ran four times on third-and-one and were successful on all four.

WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL

The Steelers built their offense around the run to an even greater extent than the Jets: 59% of their offensive plays this season were runs, the highest percentage in the league by far. Pittsburgh’s preference for the run was greatest on first down; the Steelers ran on two of every three first-down plays.

The Steelers like to run up the middle behind center Jeff Hartings and guard Alan Faneca, with fullback Dan Kreider often leading the way. That presents a big test for Jets middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma. The rookie has shown off his speed and ability to inflict big hits, but against the Steelers he has to shed blockers when opposing offenses run right at him. He didn’t do so well in Week 14, as the Steelers ran up the middle 16 times for 90 yards, and rarely ran to the sides.

The Jets actually did an outstanding job of shutting down Vilma’s Rookie of the Year counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers quarterback completed only 9 of 19 pass attempts and threw two interceptions. But despite Gang Green’s strong defensive reputation, this kind of dominance was rare in 2004.

The weakness of New York’s pass defense was masked this season by a number of factors. The Jets play at a slower pace than other teams, leading to fewer plays per game and thus fewer yards on both offense and defense. Their schedule was filled with poor passing teams. And the strength of their run defense lifted their placement in the official NFL defensive rankings enough that nobody noticed that the Jets allowed 6.2 net yards per pass attempt, 18th in the league.

So despite Roethlisberger’s struggles last time these teams faced each other, and as much as they prefer to run, the Steelers would be smart to take to the air. This is especially true on first down, when the Jets, expecting the run, will be susceptible to a good play fake. New York’s pass defense was above average on second and third downs, but among the league’s worst on first down. And while the Steelers threw fewer first-down passes than any other team in the league, they were one of the league’s three most successful offenses when they did throw on first down.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both teams are average on field goals, kickoffs, and kick returns. Both are below average on punt returns but strong on punts, although for different reasons: Chris Gardocki of the Steelers punts for a better distance, while the Jets play better punt coverage.

OUTLOOK

New York’s win over San Diego was seen as an upset because the Jets seemed to have lost momentum at the end of the season, but the teams had actually played at similar levels for the season as a whole. That’s not the case with the Steelers. Their focus on the run makes them similar to the Jets, but their dramatically better pass defense makes them far superior. Last week’s win was a small upset; a win this week would be a much larger one.

Pick: Steelers

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.