Sleeper Alert: Small Schools Could Surprise
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The emergence of sleepers – schools that receive comparatively little attention but are capable of earning their way into the Top 25 or doing damage in the NCAA Tournament – is a highlight of any college basketball season. The so-called mid-majors, basketball parlance for any school that doesn’t play for the power conferences, seldom get the chance to play the big boys on a level playing field. But every March, the NCAA equips the Davids of the college hoops world with slingshots and invites them to take aim at the Goliaths. When they connect, it makes for great entertainment.
In recent seasons, we’ve seen a handful of schools – Gonzaga, Creighton, Southern Illinois – elevate their status to the point where they no longer qualify as sleepers. Gonzaga has been roughing up its power-conference counterparts for so long that the program is receiving unprecedented respect. The Zags were listed in several preseason Top 25 polls, banishing them, at least for the time being, from the realm of the mid-majors.
Here are a few teams that could supplant the Zags as NCAA Tournament giant slayers. Keep track of them this season: Some might end up a crafty pick when it comes time to start filling out those March Madness brackets.
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Former U-Conn assistant Karl Hobbs has done a masterful job rebuilding this program. With its top seven scorers back from a year ago, including guard T.J. Thompson and bookend forwards Pops Mensah-Bonsu and Mike Hall, GW will be hard to handle in the Atlantic 10, and perhaps beyond.
If you saw the Colonials’ game at Wake Forest in the first round of the preseason NIT, then you already know this team can make the A-10 proud, much as St. Joseph’s did a year ago. Wake Forest already made sure that GW won’t go undefeated in the regular season like the Hawks did, but the Demon Deacons were lucky to play the Colonials at home and not on the road.
“I have been doing this for 30 years and have never been a part of a game where the final score is less indicative of the caliber of play and the closeness of the game,” Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser said after the Deacons won 97-76 on November 15.
The Colonials will get another chance to impress early next month when they’ll play Michigan State and possibly Maryland in the BB&T Classic.
TOLEDO
The Rockets return five starters from a team that finished 20-11 and played in the NIT a year ago. Veteran coach Stan Loplin’s experienced team is led by 6-foot-3-inch senior Keith Triplett, chosen by some as the Mid-American Conference preseason player of the year.
Triplett is joined in a solid backcourt by the last two winners of the MAC’s freshman of the year award: sophomore Justin Ingram, a 6-foot-2-inch point guard, and junior Sammy Villegas, one of the league’s best three-point shooters. Florentino Valencia and Allen Pinson give the Rockets an inside presence, and there is plenty of depth behind the starters.
WICHITA STATE
This is a tough team typified by senior forward Jamar Howard, who was supposed to miss as many as six weeks after suffering a back injury in late October, but was back on the court for the Shockers’ November 20 season opener. The versatile Howard is one assist away from becoming one of only four Wichita State players to amass 1,000 points, 500 rebounds, and 200 assists in their careers.
The Shockers’ non-conference schedule isn’t all that impressive, so they’ll have to perform well in their ESPN Bracket Buster game on February 19 and also have a good showing in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament to ensure getting an NCAA bid. But this a well-coached team under Larry Brown protege Mark Turgeon, and once in the Dance they could send a couple of lower-seeded teams packing.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Emerging from the unheralded Southern Conference, the Buccaneers have had a shot at the buzzer to pull off major upsets in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two seasons. Though both of those shots – against Wake Forest in 2003 and Cincinnati last season – missed their mark, ETSU has nevertheless become the kind of team (think Princeton) that makes opposing coaches break into a cold sweat on Selection Sunday.
The Buccaneers are led by 5-foot-9-inch point guard Tim Smith, who might be the quickest player in the game. If Smith gets a step on his man, he’s off to the rim; if a big man gets in his way, he has developed a floater he can loft over any 7-footer. He is also a decent three-point shooter, so he’s tough to check.
Though Smith commits a lot of turnovers, second-year coach Murry Bartow has learned to live with them. Smith has a lot of shooters to pass to, and Brad Nuckles is one of the best mid-major big men.
MURRAY STATE
Second-year coach Mick Cronin earned a doctorate in basketball theory working as an assistant for two of the game’s most successful coaches, Cincinnati’s Bob Huggins and Louisville’s Rick Pitino. Cronin’s debut as a head coach was a great one – the Racers finished 28-6 last year, and advanced to the NCAA Tournament. They lost in the first round, but this season Cronin has a team that could win a game or two in the Dance.
The Racers, longtime kingpins of the Ohio Valley Conference, received a big-time backcourt transfusion this season as high-major Division I transfers Keith Jennifer (Virginia) and Trey Pearson (Ole Miss) joined the starting lineup. In their season opener, the new guards combined for 40 points, 10 assists, and four steals. Pearson, who was miscast as a point guard at Ole Miss, will now have the green light to attack the rim. Another transfer, former junior-college star Pearson Griffith, is a formidable presence in the paint at 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds.
Mr. Dortch is the editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook.