Sluggers See Red as Cardinals, Sox Face Off

The World Series features the best offense in the American League vs. the best offense in the National League. But while Pujols, Edmonds, Ramirez, and Ortiz figure to play a pivotal role, the question marks revolve around both teams’ pitching. Can Curt Schilling gut through two more miraculous starts, or will his ankle injury prove too much to bear? Can Woody Williams match his sparkling Game 5 performance from the LCS and assert himself as the Cardinals’ ace? Will the Sox tee off on Matt Morris? Can Pedro Martinez approach the Pedro of old? So many questions, so many possible answers. Let’s break it down, using the players’ regular season statistics.Terry Francona threw observers for a loop by going to Martinez with an 8-1 lead in Game 7 against the Yankees, despite Derek Lowe looking dominant all night. The move temporarily jacked up the Yankee faithful, and also threw a potential monkey wrench into Boston’s World Series rotation. Francona has announced that Tim Wakefield will be his Game 1 starter, though Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll points out that Martinez’s one inning of work Wednesday amounted to a typical throw day for a starter.Schilling’s Game 6 Willis Reed imitation aside, the Sox will have legitimate concerns over his ability to give the team quality innings. With both Wakefield and Bronson Arroyo proving valuable assets in the pen and Lowe turning into his 2002 self, it’s worth considering a change in the rotation. Lowe could be a neutralizer who keeps the ball in the park against the Cardinals’ sluggers. Using Wakefield as a rubber-armed, multi-inning weapon could be a big boost to Boston’s pen, especially against such a tough lineup.The Cardinals’ hitters will provide a stiff test, even if everything falls into place for the Sox rotation. Walker to Pujols to Rolen to Edmonds remains a terrifying prospect. The Sox can’t even do much with platoon advantages, the way they did with Mike Myers against Hideki Matsui in the LCS.The X-factor here is Tony Womack. After hitting over .300 for the first time in his career this season and setting the table for the big boppers, Womack has regressed back to the offensive sieve he’s always been, hitting around the Mendoza Line in the postseason with no power or walks. Womack’s back acted up during the LCS, making it uncertain if he’ll be 100% for the World Series. Tony La Russa would probably do well to move Renteria into the leadoff spot – the more base runners the Cards can have on for the big four, the better.It’s David Ortiz’s world and we’re just living in it. Ortiz not only hit a ton in the LCS; he also produced huge hits when the Sox needed them most. While he could entertain viewers with some adventures at first base in the NL park, the Sox need Ortiz to keep being their own version of Albert Pujols. Doubly so if Ramirez remains as quiet as he was against the Yankees.Johnny Damon’s coming-out party in Game 7 was a huge lift for the Sox – they’d settle for a steady diet of singles, doubles, walks, and steals against St. Louis. Expect more flip-flopping of Mark Bellhorn, Orlando Cabrera, and Bill Mueller in the order, depending on everything from matchups to Francona’s whims.The Cards could go many different ways with their rotation. La Russa held Morris for home starts in the LCS. Though Fenway’s a good hitter’s park, the ball doesn’t fly out in Boston the way it does in Houston, so Morris may go in Game 2. Jeff Suppan has logged some quality innings in the postseason – he’s St. Louis’s second-best starter right now, behind the resurgent Williams.A deep bullpen allows La Russa to use a quick hook with any of their struggling starters, especially Marquis. It’s tough to imagine any of the Cards’ starters going too deep into a game, what with Boston’s combination of patient hitters and guys who require extreme caution.The downside of having a solid bat like John Mabry’s to plug into the lineup as the DH is that it neuters what was already an awful bench. La Russa has for years favored versatility over hitting ability in his benches. Now with Womack playing hurt, he’s got no good replacement. When the games are in Boston, the Cards will have exactly zero viable pinch-hitters.Look for the Red Sox to take advantage with a pen that features several useful weapons. Keith Foulke can hold his own against anyone (including Albert Pujols), Alan Embree can handle lefties and righties alike, and Mike Timlin has shaken off early playoff jitters to become a reliable option. Myers is the one-out-against-a-lefty guy who’ll likely see more of Jim Edmonds than anyone except Edmonds’s wife. Finally, Francona showed during the LCS that he isn’t afraid to mix and match starters in the pen, so carrying “only” six relievers shouldn’t be a problem.We stumped for Kevin Youkilis to get a bench job for the LCS, but the Sox went with 11 pitchers instead. It’s now abundantly clear that Ramiro Mendoza is an arsonist of the highest degree, and Youkilis deserves a shot. Gabe Kapler, Dave Roberts, and Doug Mientkiewicz all fill useful roles, though Roberts will find running much tougher against the Cards’ strong-armed tandem of Mike Matheny and Yadier Molina.Jason Isringhausen isn’t as good as Foulke, and showed he was hittable in the LCS. Izzy aside, though, this is a strong, deep pen. Julian Tavarez looks fine despite pulling a Kevin Brown and crushing his left hand in a tantrum. Ray King is a valuable asset whether deployed as a lefty specialist or used in a broader role. Kiko Calero may be the best of the bunch, and the Cards shouldn’t hesitate to use him against Ramirez, Ortiz, or anyone. Even lesser options like Cal Eldred could prove useful, especially if we see extra innings. The wild card is Steve Kline: If he can shake off his injuries, he will be murder on the Boston lefties, and he’s no slouch against righties either.The Sox will need to find the right matchups for their pinch-hitting to be effective, which could prove difficult. La Russa’s got both the track record of squeezing every drop out of his bullpen and the arms to make life difficult for the Sox in the middle to late innings.THE CALL: SOX IN 7This one has all the makings of a classic. For all the hoopla over pitching and defense winning playoff series, both these teams have shown the value of simply having guys who can mash. It’ll be fun to watch both teams’ sluggers go at it, and the winner of this series could come down to something as simple as who crushes the ball more often.Nonetheless, the Sox possess a clear advantage on the mound. With Schilling a big question mark, the gap has narrowed, but Foulke’s edge over Isringhausen is the difference here. Watch for the Curse – and 86 years of disappointment – to be lifted.This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.

Sluggers See Red as Cardinals, Sox Face Off

Sluggers See Red as Cardinals, Sox Face Off

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