It’s the early days, so we can’t get too wrapped up in the results of the games played so far, but events are already afoot in the National League Central that might make it even more tightly knotted up. Winning 83 games was good enough to crown the St. Louis Cardinals division champs last year, and that invitation to postseason play was all they needed to upend a few apple carts and win the World Series.

When the season began, the Central was still seen as a division where 85 wins would be enough to make any one of its six teams a contender. That relatively modest goal seemed to be in reach for everyone except the Pirates, but a couple of weeks into the season, with none of the teams off to a particularly hot or cold start, we may have to add even them to the mix. That’s because of what has already gone amiss with some of the perceived favorites.

The defending champs suffered a major blow when they lost 2005 Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter. The bone chips in his elbow that forced him onto the DL aren’t going to just go away, so while they’re waiting to see how much the inflammation goes down before revisiting the severity of the problem at the end of the month, there’s a possibility that he’ll have to have surgery and be lost for as much as two months. That sets up the possibility of having Carpenter and then Mark Mulder (currently on the DL recovering from the surgical repair of his rotator cuff) ride in as second-half heroes. It also means they’re going to have to make it through the early going relying on sophomore Anthony Reyes to develop, on Kip Wells to be pitching coach Dave Duncan’s latest successful retreading of a journeyman hurler, and for relief-to-rotation conversion projects Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper to both work out. It’s all possible, but it could also blow up in their faces. Happily for them, nobody’s likely to get too far ahead of the pack.

The Cubs were favored by some pundits after a busy winter. To shore up their lineup, they signed Nationals slugger Alfonso Soriano and former Met Cliff Floyd for their outfield, and Rangers utilityman Mark DeRosa to take over at second. Coupling them with getting first baseman Derrek Lee back and healthy for the 2007 season as an additional MVP-caliber reinforcement, and you could see some of the reasons why. It’s too early to say that the Cubs won’t be an offensive powerhouse, but between losing Soriano for an indefinite period of time to what appears to a strained hamstring, on top of their unrealistic expectations that DeRosa and outfielder Jacque Jones could keep hitting at their 2006 levels, that offensive greatness is a lot easier to posit on paper than put on the field. And as Mets fans know, relying on Cliff Floyd to be both present and pain-free can be mistake.

There’s a chance that losing Soriano might be a chance for manager Lou Piniella to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear — yesterday’s callup of top prospect Felix Pie might give the Cubs a true center fielder. If Pie carries over his hot start at Iowa (.444 AVG/.543 SLG/.583 OPS, including nine walks in 46 plate appearances), that could let them put Soriano in left or right and depend less heavily on Jones and Floyd while improving their outfield defense.

Cubs’ pitching is even less of a sure thing. While another of GM Jim Hendry’s big-ticket pickups, Ted Lilly, seems to have adapted nicely to leaving the DH league behind, Jason Marquis came to Wrigleyville with a reputation for wildness and a 6.02 ERA for the Cardinals last season. He’s already surrendered 10 walks in 17 innings, a reminder that three-year, $21 million deals for guys with ERAs higher than six make the short list for worst contracts of the winter. Added to yet another Mark Prior shoulder injury and Wade Miller’s expected ineffectiveness in Prior’s place, and it looks like the Cubs will have lean very heavily on Lilly and fellow lefty Rich Hill. Closer Ryan Dempster has been especially sharp, however, helping create some stability where his problems last season robbed them of it.

Even with these teams’ master plans in place, there wasn’t much reason to see the Cubs or the Cardinals reaching 90 wins this season, but the only team that might have that talent — the Milwaukee Brewers — managed to disappoint perhaps premature expectations of their contending last season. Much depends on staff ace Ben Sheets stepping up producing the sort of season that Baseball Prospectus has projected for him — a 3.29 ERA and just under a strikeout per inning — over a full season. If that doesn’t happen, they’ll settle for being part of the pack. Adding to their problems is the loss of third baseman Corey Koskie to post-concussion problems; his career may be over. Neither veteran infielders they brought in (Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino) provide the kind of power you expect from the hot corner, and neither is hitting in the early going. Sort of like the Cubs with Pie, the Brewers are hoping that a prospect, Ryan Braun, might solve the problem if they call him up, but Braun’s defense is still considered poor enough to push him to a less-demanding position.

Beyond the Cubs and Cardinals, bad news has afflicted the NL pennant winners of 2005, the Houston Astros. They’ve already ignited a closer controversy, as Phil Garner has lurched from giving Brad Lidge that always-deadly vote of confidence to demoting him after his first blown save. Although Garner has promoted Dan Wheeler into Lidge’s role, how long before we see another vote of confidence? They’ve also lost starting pitcher Jason Jennings after only two starts; Jennings was being counted on as the veteran pickup to replace the departed Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. He might only miss a couple of weeks, but the Astros can ill afford it.

All of which means that the Reds shouldn’t feel themselves counted out. With a rotation fronted by Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, they have better starting pitching than most people realize, and if they can remain relatively healthy, there’s not a lot keeping them from being the kinds of club that gets more than 80 wins. The Reds have two of the best prospects in any organization who are almost major league-ready: starting pitcher Homer Bailey and first baseman Joey Votto.

And the Pirates? Well, never say never — the more bad things that happen to other people, the more dangerous the possibility that we see the bar for winning a division lowered below last season’s 83 in St. Louis.

Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.