As one would expect, the AFC South boasts the team with the best ratings according to our DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistics. The surprise is that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars,not the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. This division is strong on symmetry with two outstanding teams and two terrible teams.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9 -0 )

The Colts have vaulted to a franchisebest start thanks to efficient offense, aggressive defense, and a very easy schedule.In fact,the Colts had the easiest firsthalf schedule of any NFL team in the past decade, a fact that is affecting their performance in our advanced metrics (see accompanying chart). San Francisco is the worst team we’ve ever tracked, Houston is close, and the Colts have played three games against those teams.

Our stats are likely overcompensating – the Colts held the top spot until last week’s game against Houston – but they are also telling us something. Indianapolis still needs to prove itself against top competition, and this year’s Patriots don’t qualify. Over the next six weeks, the Colts will play five games against teams that currently rank in our top 10, three of them on the road.

On the field, most defenses have copied the scheme used by the Patriots in last year’s playoffs, foregoing the blitz to keep receivers closely covered. The results have been striking, with Peyton Manning averaging 1.3 fewer yards per attempt than a season ago, and star wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne both averaging the fewest yards per reception of their careers. With teams protecting against the deep pass, Edgerrin James is exploiting the absence of run stoppers to have the best season of his fine career.

The bigger story may be the emergence of the oft-maligned defense as an elite unit. The high-profile off-season move was the signing of Corey Simon, but the biggest impact is coming from new starting linebacker Gary Brackett, who previously played only in clear passing situations. Tony Dungy’s scheme assigns major coverage responsibilities to the middle linebacker, and the athletic Brackett has emerged as a key pass defender.

But the Colts have two weaknesses. First, they have the worst special teams in football: extra yardage wasted in the return game did not show up against the 49ers or Titans,but it will show up against Pittsburgh and Seattle.Second,their run defense is still average at best.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6 -3 )

A number of AFC teams have wildcard hopes, but the Jaguars are primed for a playoff run thanks to a top defense and the easiest second-half schedule in the league. A visit from the Colts is the only tough game remaining.

Jacksonville ranks comfortably as the best overall defense and best pass defense in the league according to DVOA.These rankings are somewhat inflated by facing Tommy Maddox and Jamie Martin instead of Ben Roethlisberger and Marc Bulger, but the Jaguars have also tamed top 10 offenses Seattle, Indianapolis, Denver, and Cincinnati. The defense has long been anchored by dominant tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson.

The Jaguars might be equally strong in the secondary with emerging star Rashean Mathis and unheralded veterans Kenny Wright and Terry Cousins dominating opposing receivers.

Further development of the offense is the key to becoming a serious Super Bowl threat. Quarterback Byron Leftwich makes very few mistakes and has the arm to make big plays. The question is whether he has anyone to catch his passes.

The venerable Jimmy Smith remains solid, and second-year disappointment Reggie Williams is finally being pushed aside thanks to big games from other receivers like Ernest Wilford and rookie Matt Jones. If these young receivers can deliver consistently, the Jaguars will be a team to be reckoned with in January.

TENNESSEE TITANS (2 -7 )

The Titans are the most recent example of why a team should avoid salary cap jail at all costs. They’ve spent two off-seasons shedding star players, leaving depth as a serious concern. It’s no surprise that injuries to the few experienced wide receivers and cornerbacks have left them powerless in the passheavy world of modern football.

Since the only proven receiver, Drew Bennett, has battled injuries all year, new offensive coordinator Norm Chow is stuck building an offense around passes to the running backs and tight ends. Eventually, every team needs big plays on the outside.

The Titans are above average at defending the run but among the worst at stopping the pass. Like many rookie cornerbacks, first-round pick Pacman Jones has struggled mightily in adjusting to the NFL.To make matters worse,an injury to Andre Woolfolk left the other corner manned by seventh-round pick Reynaldo Hill. At this point, they are the worst pair of starting corners in the league.

HOUSTON TEXANS (1 -8 )

In their fourth year, Houston finally expected to mount a playoff run. They had improved their win total each year, building a talented young offense and an athletic defense. But the offense has regressed, and the defense has become a complete embarrassment.

With the stunted development of quarterback David Carr and problems on the offensive line, most observers fail to realize that the defense is actually Houston’s weakest unit. Trying to get younger and faster, the Texans released stalwart linebackers Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman. Speedy linebacker Morlon Greenwood was imported from Miami and youngsters Antwan Peek and Jason Babin were given starting jobs. The results have been a disaster.

But Houston,like Jacksonville,is done with the harder part of the schedule. With only two games left against teams with winning records and the return to health of star wide receiver Andre Johnson, the Texans may actually win some games in the second half.

Projected order of finish: Indianapolis 12-4 (division winner), Jacksonville 12-4, Tennessee 4-12, Houston 4-12.

Mr. Macey is a writer for Football-Outsiders.com.