On a chartered jet headed to Tampa, Fla., Sunday evening, the Red Sox brain trust will finally take pencil – not pen – to paper and begin sketching out a postseason rotation.

Picking the right pitcher in the right order requires nearly as much data-crunching ability and predictive powers as a National Hurricane Center forecaster trying to estimate where a hurricane will hit land. Many factors come into play, making for several tough decisions to be faced by Sox General Manager Theo Epstein, manager Terry Francona, pitching coach Dave Wallace, and undoubtedly quite a few others who will want to contribute their two or three cents.

The decision will not be based solely on the individual track records of Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield – the four likeliest starters – and Bronson Arroyo, the odd man out. Several of these pitchers have significant discrepancies in their home-away splits, and the issue of whether or not Boston can wrest the A.L. East title (and thus home-field advantage) away from the Yankees will go a long way to determining who gets the nod.

By waiting until Sunday, after three games at Fenway Park with the Yankees, the Red Sox will have a much better idea whether or not the division crown is still in play. If the Sox win the weekend series, all bets are off. The club will try hard to take the division, which diminishes the odds that they will tinker with their rotation.

The current order is lined up so that Martinez would start Game 1 and Schilling Game 2. This would make sense for a five-game series beginning at Fenway, as Martinez’s home numbers (9-2, 3.02 ERA, .212 opponents’ average) are significantly better than Schilling’s (11-1, 3.51 ERA, .247 AVG).

But since the wildcard spot appears to be the most likely outcome for the Red Sox, their last seven games against the Devil Rays and Orioles will allow them to adjust the rotation order for the first time this season, probably lining up Schilling to start Game 1 of the playoffs. With just one off day in the ALDS, the Sox will go with four starters and will not pitch anyone on three days’ rest, meaning that Schilling would also start Game 5 in either Minnesota or Oakland.

Schilling’s road numbers (9-5, 3.00 ERA, .241 AVG) are far better than Pedro’s (7-5, 4.40, .246). However, Schilling has not pitched at Network Coliseum or the Metrodome this season, while Martinez has had two of his best games of the season in each of them.

Picking Schilling over Martinez is the kind of sexy story that delights the media, but it is not of great consequence. It is hard to go wrong with either pitcher, and the Game 2 starter would be on track to start Game 1 of the ALCS should the first round go the distance.

A more interesting scenario is the idea being floated around of Arroyo starting Game 2, with Martinez on the mound for Game 3 at Fenway. Arroyo has been better than Pedro on the road this season (6-4, 3.17 ERA, .214 AVG), while getting bombed at home (3-5, 5.35, .291).

Last year, the Sox surprised some in the ALDS when they had Wakefield start Game 2 in Oakland because of his good numbers there and had their second-best pitcher, Lowe, start Game 3 at Fenway because of his success there. Pitching Martinez in Game 3 this year is a far more controversial call, one the Rod Sox have said they won’t make. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t compelling reasons for making it.

That leaves three pitchers – Arroyo, Lowe, and Wakefield – to pitch in Games 3 and 4 at Fenway, with Schilling available on normal rest for Game 5 on the road. Lowe will likely get the nod for Game 3, despite his horrible loss at Yankee Stadium last Saturday.

Prior to that start, Lowe had turned his results around in the second half, going 8-3 with a 3.78 ERA in his previous 13 starts. His sinkerball out-pitch has had more sink on it of late, he has effectively mixed in his changeup to lefties, and has put his curveball and cut fastball to good use as well. Last night, he twice stranded runners at third base in the early going, yet also gave up a three-run homer to Miguel Tejada in his fifth and final frame.

Lowe’s home/away splits dramatically favor Fenway Park (8-4, 4.55 ERA, .280 AVG at home; 6-8, 5.91, .304 on the road), and he came up big in the Division Series against the A’s last season. The Red Sox do worry about what they are going to get from Lowe on any given night but unless he implodes between now and the playoffs, they will hand him the ball for Game 3.

Wakefield is likely to get the call for Game 4, although he would be on a short leash with Arroyo ready to come in at the first hint of trouble (unless Arroyo already came in for Lowe early in Game 3, a distinct possibility). Wakefield has been terrible in September, going 0-3 with a 9.45 ERA in four starts. His knuckleball has been floating high in the strike zone, a problem he has pinpointed to pitching from the stretch. During slumps like this in past years, Wakefield has sought advice from Phil Niekro, or else has figured out for himself how to correct his mechanical flaws. The bet here is that he will recover.

In this case, left/right splits may be relevant. Wakefield holds lefties to a .226 batting average, while righties pound him (.301); Arroyo, on the other hand, is vulnerable to lefties (.277), and effective against righties (.223). With the lefty dominated A’s lineup, Wakefield has the edge.

Of course, much can change between now and the beginning of the playoffs. Readers would be advised to stay tuned to their local forecast for the latest details.

Mr. Silverman covers the Red Sox for the Boston Herald.