Sox Staff May Top Padres for Best in the League

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From our normal, semi-informed vantage point at the wrong end of the telescope, the pitching staff of the San Diego Padres looks like the class of baseball. But they have some competition for that title from the Boston Red Sox, a team that has assembled one of the best pitching staffs in its history — if not the best.

This is a counterintuitive conclusion, to say the least. The Padres have the lowest team ERA in the business at 3.66, and a contender for pitching’s triple crown in Jake Peavy, the NL leader in wins, strikeouts, and ERA. The Padres also have the top two leaders in the latter category in the majors, with Peavy in first place and Chris Young in second. The team’s number three starter is a fourtime Cy Young Award winner with 345 career wins, and their closer is a likely Hall of Famer who holds the career record for saves.

Compared to San Diego’s front three, Boston’s rotation looks like an ad hoc committee of spare parts. Josh Beckett has had a season worthy of a Cy Young Award. But he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the starting group, which also includes Curt Schilling, the knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, the young Jon Lester (triumphant over lymphoma but not always on the baseball field), and the high-priced import from Japan, Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Until recently, this group was more impressive than it is at the moment. Matsuzaka was pushed very hard in the first half by Sox manager Terry Francona, with repeated outings of relatively high pitch counts. In one stretch of six starts encompassing all of June and the first week of July, Matsuzaka averaged 121 pitches per start. He pitched exceedingly well in those starts, with an ERA of 1.29 over 42 innings. But the Sox seem to be paying the price for not being more conservative now, with the pitcher posting an ERA of 9.57 in his last five starts, and not making it out of the third inning in his last appearance.

At the end of August, Wakefield appeared to be ready to end the season — and possibly his Red Sox tenure — in style, with 22 consecutive shutout innings in his last three starts of the month. Wakefield’s back began troubling him, though, and he skipped a start. He should have skipped more: In two starts since returning, he’s allowed 13 runs in 6.2 innings for a nifty ERA of 17.55.

Schilling has been on the upswing, having successfully reinvented himself as a six-inning pitch-to-contact hurler after years as a fire-balling innings-eater. Lester has been strong in three of his last four starts (all against Baltimore and Tampa Bay, so perhaps they should be graded on a curve), and Beckett has been consistent in his dominance.

If Matsuzaka and Wakefield can rebound, then this group represents as deep a rotation as any the Sox have had in recent memory, on a par with that of the 1986 pennant winners or the 2004 champions. The latter club had great names like Schilling, Wakefield, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, and Bronson Arroyo — but not all of them were having their best seasons. Martinez was a demigod that year, not a god, Arroyo was just coming into his own, and Lowe had an off year.

What really seals the deal for the 2007 Sox is that they’ve finally overcome the Curse of Sparky Lyle. Ever since Boston traded the eccentric Lyle to the Yankees for the punchless first baseman Danny Cater back in 1972, the Sox have struggled to put together a topflight bullpen. This year, there’s not a clearly overburdened Wakefield, Calvin Schiraldi, or Mike Timlin trying to close out games. Oh, the ageless Timlin is still there, but in middle relief. The ends of games are covered by the un-hittable duo of Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon. It would be shocking were the Red Sox to experience any Bob Stanley moments this October. The Sox have had their closers before — Tom Gordon, Keith Foulke, Dick Radatz, even “Old Folks” Ellis Kinder. But rarely, if ever, have they had a relief corps as deep as this one.

As for the comparison with the Padres, context is everything. The Padres play in one of the best pitchers’ parks in the game. The Red Sox do not, and they play in the designated hitter league as well. Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.18 at home, 3.51 on the road. Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 at home, 4.30 on the road — and away from home, the Padres are still facing pitchers and .220-hitting pinch hitters, while the Red Sox get four visits from Jim Thome. Young and Greg Maddux, in particular, become just good pitchers away from home.

That’s not to say the Padres aren’t quite good. Their top three starters and their solid bullpen could make them an upset winner in the first round of the playoffs, should they hold off the Phillies and retain their hold on the wildcard. But the Red Sox are better — though if Matsuzaka and Wakefield can’t come back from their recent difficulties, all bets are off.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for Yesnetwork .com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.


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