A couple of weeks ago, when the Utah Jazz trailed the Houston Rockets two games to none in their first round playoff series, I wrote them off, and I felt pretty good about my logic. The Jazz had slumped through the final 20 games of the season, and while they had their chances in the early going against Houston, the Rockets looked like a superior team. Instead, the Jazz rallied to win four of the next five even winning Game 7 on the road and then winning their second round series in five games.

After tonight, the Jazz should be down two games to none against another Texas team, the San Antonio Spurs. I should be more careful before writing them off this time, but there’s too much evidence to support an easy Spurs win tonight. In fact, while the Jazz staged an impressive rally to keep themselves from getting completely blown out of the AT&T Center in Sunday afternoon’s 108–100 loss, they showed little to suggest that this is going to be a close series.

First of all, while this is billed as the no. 3 seed versus the no. 4 seed, there couldn’t be a bigger gulf between two teams listed consecutively. The Spurs won 58 games to the Jazz’s 51. If seven games seems insignificant, consider that the difference between the Nets and the Knicks was eight games. Also consider that the Spurs outscored their opponents by a league-leading margin of 8.4 points a game, a differential consistent with a 64–18 record; the Jazz outpaced their opposition by a margin of only 2.9 points a game, which is consistent with a 49–33 record. Fifteen games is a bigger gap than Detroit and Orlando, a series that ended in a four game sweep.

Other advanced hoops metrics favor the Spurs strongly here. The Spurs finished second in the league in Defensive Efficiency, allowing only 99.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s no surprise, during every full season under coach Gregg Popovich, the Spurs have been among the league leaders in nearly every defensive tally. This year the Spurs posted the fifth best Offensive Efficiency rating, scoring 109.3 points per 100 possessions. That may get overlooked a bit because the Spurs play at such a slow tempo, finishing 27th in Pace Factory, possessions per game at a tortoise-like 89.8.

The Jazz fit the profile of a good but not quite elite team. Their offense is top notch — as you should expect from a team led by three efficient players like forward Carlos Boozer, center Mehmet Okur, and guard Deron Williams. Utah finished third in the league in Offensive Efficiency at 109.8 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz defense was another story, allowing 107.3 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the NBA.

The Jazz may seem like a defensive powerhouse because they slowed down the run and gun Golden State Warriors but that was a factor of their size as much as any particular tactic. In other words, after a season that promised a Western Final as a clash of the titans, this series is shaping up to be a mismatch.

Is Game 1 indicative of things to come? Probably. The way that the Spurs built their lead — strong play from their three stars, stingy defense, and decent work from the supporting cast — are all sustainable tendencies. It’s how they’ve won eight of their 11 postseason games this spring. The Jazz closed a 19-point gap to seven in the fourth quarter, probably just enough to return the fans attention to the game, but they did it with Deron Williams running wild against a soft defense that differed substantially from the Spurs blueprint through the first three stanzas.

The Spurs may have the best man-to-man defense in the NBA, but Golden State hobbled the Jazz in their second round series, so the Spurs often used a zone in the early going against the Jazz, and they reduced Utah’s offense to a mindless fusion. The multifaceted forward Andrei Kirilenko accumulated more fouls than assists, rebounds, or steals. And Okur shot 3-of-15 while guard Derek Fisher managed only 1-of-7. Boozer scored 20 but on an inefficient 7-of-17 shooting. The Spurs blanketed Williams with ace defender Bruce Bowen during the first half. With the game well in hand, the Spurs relaxed. You could argue that the Jazz’s comeback had as much to do with San Antonio’s free throw shooting as anything else. The Spurs missed nine free throws in the final frame. If they maintained their season average (a little over 75%) then the margin never reaches single digits.

Can the Jazz bounce back? I doubt it. Their offensive tendencies fit right into San Antonio’s defensive schemes that clog the paint and deny open looks from behind the arc. With Boozer unable to establish an inside game, and Okur unable to punish double teams with three pointers, the Jazz will be reduced to the lowest percentage shots, mid- and long-range two pointers. Meanwhile, the Spurs offense roared like a swinging big band, shooting 54.3% from the field and 45.5% from behind the arc. With their offense flowing and their defense revved up, it’s nearly impossible to see the Jazz winning tonight.

But I’ve been down on the Jazz before.

mjohnson@nysun.com