One of the oddest discoveries of the recent baseball statistics revolution came from a man with the unlikely name of Voros McCracken. While attempting to figure out how much of a pitcher’s performance should really be credited to his team’s defense, McCracken (now a Boston Red Sox consultant) made a startling discovery: If you take out strikeouts, walks, and home runs – in other words, look only at fair balls hit in play – the number of hits that pitchers give up is virtually random from year to year, whether you’re talking about Greg Maddux or Todd Van Poppel.

McCracken concluded that most of what separates an elite pitcher from a waiver-wire candidate is strikeouts, walks, and home runs – the holy trinity known to stats analysts as a pitcher’s “peripheral” stats. But as far as whether balls hit in play land in a glove or find a gap, for pitchers good enough to pitch in the bigs, it’s a matter left to his fielders, his ballpark, and to a large extent, plain old luck.

The corollary is that pitchers who had bad years thanks largely to a high batting average in balls in play, or BABIP, were just “hit-unlucky”; these poor saps can often be expected to bounce back. Pitchers who excelled thanks to low BABIPs, meanwhile, were presumably benefiting from lots of balls hit at fielders; all else being equal, they should fall victim to the law of averages.

It’s something that Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta may have had in mind when he dropped big money on the BABIP-challenged Derek Lowe last winter, and something that more than a few fantasy players have used to try and predict which pitchers will excel or tank in the coming season.

So how are last year’s BABIP losers turning out so far in 2005? Let’s take a look at the starting pitchers with the worst BABIP last year (relievers don’t throw enough innings to provide a decent sample size) and see how they’re faring:

JASON DAVIS (2004: 5.51 ERA, .338 BABIP)

The 24-year-old Davis was a mess last year, walking two-thirds as many batters as he struck out, but he wasn’t helped any by having the highest percentage of balls falling in for hits of any pitcher in the majors. Banished this year to the ignominy of swingmanship, he’s still having trouble throwing strikes (five walks in the span of nine batters on Sunday), and has gotten no help from lady luck either, as opposing batters are hitting .385 off him when they put the ball in play.

SIDNEY PONSON (2004: 5.30 ERA, .327 BABIP)

Ponson’s ERA headed skyward last year, but aside from a slight dip in his strikeout rate and a few more home runs yielded, he was largely the same pitcher he was when he went 17-12 with a 3.75 ERA in 2003 – except that suddenly his fielders couldn’t catch the ball. This year he seems determined to pitch down to his reputation, walking almost five batters per nine innings, while the O’s defense has chipped in by allowing a .350 BABIP during his appearances.

KEVIN MILLWOOD (2004: 4.85 ERA, .327 BABIP)

Millwood posted the worst ERA of his career last year, while turning in his highest strikeout rate since his breakout year of 1999. Signed by Cleveland this year (where he took Davis’s rotation spot), he’s struck out just 15 batters in 25 innings – but his BABIP is down to .301, and his ERA to a respectable 3.91.

DEREK LOWE (2004: 5.42 ERA, .327 BABIP)

The poster child for pitching inconsistency – his ERA more than doubled from 2002 to 2004 – Lowe was plagued by wildness last year, but equally plagued by an awful lot of grounders past a diving Mark Bellhorn.

This year, with the slick glove of Cesar Izturis behind him, Lowe has his BABIP down to a ridiculous .212, and his ERA to an even more absurd 1.27. Maybe DePodesta knew what he was doing after all.

JASON JENNINGS (2004: 5.51 ERA, .326 BABIP)

The thin air and vast outfield expanse of Coors Field is brutal on balls in play: Colorado’s team BABIP has been the worst in the NL two years running, regardless of who’s taken the field for them. It’s been more of the same this year for Jennings, with a .325 BABIP, though his ERA is down to 4.21. Walking 15 batters in 25 innings hasn’t helped him any: The last thing you need in Coors Field is a lot of free baserunners.

CASEY FOSSUM (2004: 6.65 ERA, .325 BABIP)

Once upon a time, Fossum was the anointed one, the Red Sox phenom too valuable to be traded for Bartolo Colon. He finally departed Boston in the Curt Schilling deal, only to go 4-15 with a 6.65 ERA for the Diamondbacks last year, the worst ERA of any pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched. Trying to rebuild his career in the Tampa Bay bullpen this year, he’s been bedeviled by a lofty .343 BABIP, but has his ERA down to 3.75 thanks largely to 14 strikeouts in 12 innings of work.

Just by sheer random chance, Fossum’s BABIP should come down as the season goes on – nobody can roll snake eyes every time out – so if he keeps his strikeout rate up, he stands a very good chance of being a very good pitcher.

JEFF FASSERO (2004: 5.46 ERA, .325 BABIP)

Yes, he really was good once upon a time. At 42, those days are long gone – his strikeout and walk rates are almost identical this year to last – but his ERA is now a sparkling 2.79, thanks to a .233 BABIP after trading Coors Field for pitcher-friendly SBC Park.

ERIK BEDARD (2004: 4.59 ERA, .323 BABIP)

Bedard got hit with a double whammy in 2004: His command was off as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and when the opposition put wood on the ball, he was victimized by the Orioles’ sieve-handed defense. (The O’s team BABIP of .316 was third-worst in the majors.) His control appears to have returned (five walks in 23-plus innings), which has helped Bedard to a 3.80 ERA despite a .347 BABIP.

JON LIEBER (2004: 4.33 ERA, .323 BABIP)

Coming off Tommy John surgery, Lieber actually performed pretty well last year, considering the state of the Yankees’ defense. He’s pretty much the same pitcher this year – he doesn’t strike anybody out or walk them – but a .250 BABIP has helped him to a 4-0, 2.73 mark, despite giving up homers in bunches.

It’s tempting to chalk up improved records like Lowe’s, Millwood’s, or Lieber’s to their having found some new mound pixie dust over the winter. Only then you get a pitcher like Fossum, who has apparently done all he can to help out his team, only to have the seven guys behind him let him down.

When looking at pitchers like these who didn’t live up to expectations last year, you can expect that, outside of Colorado (and maybe Baltimore, whose defense looks as lead-footed as ever), odds are most of these guys will outperform their 2004 statistics going forward.

So if your favorite team’s pitcher is giving up hits in bunches despite a good strikeout rate, don’t point fingers at the mound; instead, consider that the blame might be in their co-stars, not in themselves.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-theart information and commentary, please visit baseballprospectus.com.