PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (14-2)
(Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS)

As Indianapolis went undefeated week after week, two teams were considered the most likely candidates to hand them a loss: Pittsburgh and San Diego. The Colts whipped the Steelers 26-7 in Week 12,but the Chargers scored the upset three weeks later. For the Steelers to duplicate that result, they must learn from San Diego’s strategy.

WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL

When these teams met in November, seven of Pittsburgh’s first nine plays went for either no gain or a loss, resulting in three straight three-and-outs. The Steelers’ linemen are powerful, but they’re sometimes a step slow getting out of their stances, and there’s no group in the league better equipped to exploit that than the Colts’ lightning quick front four.

The Colts have always had trouble stopping the run (they’re allowing just over 100 yards per game this season), and Pittsburgh’s offense is the most run-oriented in the NFL. Knowing the Steelers would run, the Colts brought safety Bob Sanders up to the line on every play, and Steeler running backs Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis kept running into a wall of defenders while the lonely Pittsburgh receivers ran around in single coverage.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger overthrew Hines Ward on a 15-yard pattern on Pittsburgh’s second play – and the Steelers did not throw another pass longer than 12 yards until the final minute of the first half.

Contrast this to the Chargers’ strategy when they upset the Colts. In the first quarter alone, San Diego threw four passes of 15 yards or more, three of which were caught. Only two of their first 13 plays were runs. When Sanders played up, they threw long, and when he moved back into coverage later in the game, they ran the ball.

To win this game, the Steelers need to reverse their usual run-first mindset. We know they can do it: Roethlisberger averaged 10.4 net yards per pass in the first quarter this season, two yards more than any other quarterback.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

Peyton Manning’s brain is the engine that runs the Colts’ offensive machine. He excels at recognizing blitzes and adjusting plays at the line to take advantage of defensive weaknesses. But he seems to have more trouble with 3-4 defenses, including the Chargers and the pre-2005 Patriots.

Constant pressure from the outside, provided by rookie linebacker Shawne Merriman, was a major part of San Diego’s upset. The Chargers sacked Manning four times and, more important, prevented him from setting his feet by forcing him to step up in a pocket that had collapsed.

The Steelers fit this same mold, or so it seems. In Week 12, for example, DeShea Townsend came on a corner blitz and sacked Manning. Manning wasn’t able to do what he so often does – throw directly to the spot that the blitzing player had vacated – because the Steelers did a great job of covering for the spot Townsend had vacated. But that play was an aberration; for most of the day, Pittsburgh’s pressure didn’t affect Manning at all.

The danger for Indianapolis is that Pittsburgh can pressure Manning more and worry about running back Edgerrin James less. For the second straight year, James has slowed down in December. Last season, he aver aged 4.8 yards per carry through 11 games, but 3.8 yards in December and January. This season, James averaged 4.5 yards per carry through 11 games, but 3.2 yards in December. The Colts hope that with two weeks of rest, James will be the same consistent back who was successful on a league leading 62% of his runs.

OUTLOOK

Alas, a blueprint to beat the Colts doesn’t necessarily lead to a win. Indianapolis has dominated the league all year, they’re rested, and they’ll have the crowd behind them. The Steelers will stay closer than they did in November, but they’ll need to play mistake-free football to keep the Colts from moving on.

The Pick: Colts