Entering 2004, the AFC North looked like the least exciting division in football, one that might send an 8-8 team to the playoffs. Instead, though its Ohio teams have been as mediocre as advertised, its other two clubs are title contenders.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-1)

What makes the 2004 Steelers so fascinating is that, unlike the other elite teams in the league, they entered this season needing to improve the running game, bolster the offensive line, get more consistent play from their quarterbacks, and add depth to the defensive backfield. Every one of those goals has been accomplished.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has certainly been impressive – his 7-0 record as a rookie starter is an NFL record – but he’s not the most important part of the Pittsburgh turnaround, or even the Pittsburgh offense. The pass defense has been the best part of this year’s Steelers, and the running game the most important.

The Steelers have run the ball on 341 plays this year, by far the most in the NFL. Running the most doesn’t necessarily mean running the best, but the Steelers have seen a colossal improvement over last year’s rushing performance. Last season, the Steelers were last in the NFL with 3.3 yards per carry; this season, they’re gaining 4.1 yards per carry. Part of that is the arrival of the underrated Duce Staley from Philadelphia, but the key is a healthy offensive line.

Left tackle Marvel Smith and center Jeff Hartings are healthy after an injury-plagued 2003, combining with Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca to form an impenetrable left side. On the right, Keydrick Vincent has been surprisingly effective. Offensive coach Russ Grimm has molded these players into a unit that creates huge holes for Staley and Jerome Bettis and gives Roethlisberger eons of time to find a receiver.

The improvement on the offensive line, great as it has been, is dwarfed by the Steelers’ improvement in preventing the pass. Last year, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric (DVOA), which breaks down each play of the season and compares it with the NFL average based on situation and opponent, the Steelers had the 18th-best pass defense in the NFL. This year they are no. 1.

Coordinator Dick LeBeau, creator of the zone blitz, has pressured the ball more this year, leading to more sacks and turnovers. The Steelers already have as many fumble recoveries as they did all of last season, with only three fewer interceptions and seven fewer sacks.

New England has been better overall, but the Steelers won a huge leg up in the battle for home-field advantage in the playoffs by handing the Patriots their only loss. Pittsburgh has to be considered the favorite to win the top seed in the AFC, win the AFC championship, and – because their strengths play directly to the weaknesses of the top NFC contenders – win the Super Bowl.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-3)

Going into 2004, my statistical projections frowned upon Baltimore’s chances of repeating as AFC North champion. It is rare for a team to play defense or special teams at the Ravens’ dominant level for more than one season. The offense also had to expect a decline because past running backs who ran as often as Jamal Lewis did in 2003 had nearly all broken down the following season.

Baltimore still won’t repeat as division champs, but the cause is the Steelers and not themselves. Their defense isn’t as dominating as last season, but it is once again the best in the NFL. Their special teams are still among the league’s top five. And the offense is no longer among the NFL’s worst.

Kyle Boller has been the subject of much derision, but his two best games of the season have come in the last three weeks, so he seems to be improving. Luckily for him, Baltimore still has an offense built on the run, and while Jamal Lewis may have come close to the NFL rushing record last year, this year’s Baltimore rushing attack has been more effective on a play-by-play basis thanks to improvement on third downs.

Ironically, Lewis’s suspension for pleading guilty on drug charges guaranteed him fewer carries, helping prevent a breakdown from last year’s overuse and keeping him fresh in the latter stages of the season.

If the offensive improvement in Baltimore continues, the Ravens will be the strongest challenger to the Steelers and Patriots. But unless a Steeler collapse is in the offing, Baltimore will be limited to a wild card slot and the difficult task of winning three straight road games in order to return to the Super Bowl.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-5)

Analysis of the 2004 Bengals has to revolve around strength of schedule. It has affected the way the team’s first half performance is perceived, and it will affect their chances of making a second-half run at a playoff spot.

The Bengals seem to have returned to their inept offensive patterns of years past, but their first-half schedule was littered with great defenses, including Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Miami. Based on yards gained, Cincinnati comes out as the 23rd-best offense in the league. Adjust for strength of schedule, and it turns out the Bengals have been ordinary. According to our DVOA ratings, they rank between 14th and 19th in rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense, and passing defense.

For the Bengals, that mediocrity is actually quite promising. There has been much gnashing of teeth over the benching of quarterback Jon Kitna – who had led a successful offense in 2003 – in favor of last year’s top draft pick, Carson Palmer. Palmer’s struggles have led to calls for Kitna’s return, but if one adjusts his numbers for the defenses he has faced, it’s clear that Palmer is progressing nicely.

In 2003, the Bengals won six of seven games after the bye and nearly made the playoffs. Since these Bengals have won three of their last four games, fans are optimistic that another second-half surge is in the cards. Unfortunately, the Bengals have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, including the three best teams in the league: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New England. The latter two are on the road, as is another remaining game against Baltimore.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-6)

Some teams, like New Orleans, have maintained mediocrity by making very few roster changes. The Browns, on the other hand, have maintained mediocrity through constant roster changes, none of which seem to work. It can’t be exciting as a fan when the peak of your team’s season occurs in Week 1.

In Cleveland’s opening victory against Baltimore, new QB Jeff Garcia looked like the All-Pro he had been in San Francisco, using his elusiveness to create time and connect on two big TD passes. Since then, Garcia has performed inconsistently, in large part due to a grueling slate of opponents.

No quarterback has faced a harder schedule than Garcia. According to my metrics, his performance has been worth -5.0 points when compared with replacement level if you don’t adjust for strength of schedule. That number skyrockets to 18.8 points above replacement level after the adjustment.

The running game, on the other hand, is in shambles. The Browns expected big things from Lee Suggs after a 186-yard performance in the final game of the 2003 season. Instead, they have learned why sports statisticians harp on the issue of small sample size. According to DVOA, Suggs has been the worst running back in the league with at least 50 carries this season. Cleveland’s other back, William Green, hasn’t been much better.

On defense, the Browns have been unimpressive and uninspiring. They have suffered injuries up front, but no more than most teams, and their secondary has struggled mightily. Browns fans can take heart that statistical trends project some defensive improvement over the second half of the season, which would represent a promising step toward a better 2005.

Mr.Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.