WASHINGTON REDSKINS (10-6) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (11-5)
(Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ABC)

The Redskins and Buccaneers are similar teams, with strong defenses and strong running backs. Each offense uses a variety of two- and three-tight end sets, with one tight end standing out as the sole alternative to a single veteran wide receiver specializing in spectacular deep grabs.

For Washington, the running back is Clinton Portis, the wide receiver Santana Moss, and the tight end Chris Cooley. Their Buccaneer counterparts are Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway, and Alex Smith.

When these two met on November 13, both defenses gave up their season high in points allowed. Tampa Bay won 36-35 on a controversial Mike Alstott two-point conversion which many Washington fans claim did not cross the goal line.

Now Washington is red hot, riding a five-game winning streak into the playoffs. The Redskins rank fourth in our metric weighted towards recent games, better than any other team playing this weekend. But they also suffered numerous injuries during that streak. Is Washington’s statistical advantage enough to overcome Tampa’s advantages in health and home field?

WHEN WASHINGTON HAS THE BALL

The hottest player on the Redskins is Portis, who gained 100 yards with at least four yards per carry in each of the five straight wins. He also gained 144 yards against Tampa Bay in that Week 10 meeting, the highest total Tampa gave up to any back. Although the Bucs led the league allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, Portis gained 6.2 yards per carry against them.

Portis gashed the Bucs in the two places where they are most susceptible to the run: left tackle and right end. Tampa’s strength is stopping runs up the middle, but the Bucs rank 24th against runs behind left tackle and 26th against runs around right end. Portis gained 70 of his yards on just seven carries in these two directions. This is the second year the Bucs have been poor against right end runs, and they had better fix the problem because 21% of Washington runs went around right end this season, the highest percentage in the league.

The defensive right side is less of a problem for Tampa, especially on passing plays. Defensive end Simeon Rice was huge when these teams first met, with two sacks, two forced fumbles, and an interception. The Redskins will try to help left tackle Chris Samuels double-team Rice, probably with blocking tight end Robert Royal. With his knee hurting, quarterback Mark Brunell cannot avoid a pass rush as well as usual.

Tampa is weak covering second and third receivers, but that’s not a problem against Washington, because the receivers besides Moss are awful. Tampa ranks sixth in the league defending passes to top receivers, and they kept Moss to 79 yards and no touchdowns on November 13.

WHEN THE BUCS HAVE THE BALL

Tampa coach Jon Gruden is known for his intricate air attack, but you work with what you have, and what he has now is a team that specializes in power football.

Rookie running back Cadillac Williams set an NFL record with 100 yards in each of his first three games, but a foot sprain led to six straight games in which he either did not play or managed fewer than 30 yards. The last of those games came against Washington, but Tampa’s poor rushing that day cannot be blamed solely on Williams’s injuries. Washington’s front seven – particularly defensive tackle Joe Salave ‘a – dominated Tampa Bay’s offensive line, never allowing Williams room to run.

Since then, Gruden has addressed his weak offensive line by keeping a tight end or even two back to help with blocking. In the first three weeks of the season, Williams had eight runs of more than 15 yards, but only 30% of his runs went for between four and 10 yards. In the seven games since Tampa played Washington, Williams has just five runs of more than 15 yards, but 39% of his runs have gone between four and 10 yards. Right tackle Kenyatta Walker is still the weak link despite tight end help, and the Bucs run much better to the left side than the right.

When quarterback Chris Simms does pass, he usually finds Joey Galloway. The 34-year-old wideout posted career-highs in receptions (83) and yards (1,287) this season, and 131 of those yards came against the Redskins. But the game stood out because of the passes Washington allowed to other Tampa wideouts. Former Giant Ike Hilliard gained 37 yards and caught his only touchdown of the season. Edell Sheppard had 87 yards and a touchdown, and he had just 16 yards the entire rest of the year.

This is where Washington’s injuries come in. Cornerback Shawn Springs is questionable with a groin injury, and while they are not listed on the injury report, cornerback Carlos Rogers (biceps) and safety Matt Bowen (knee) are also hurting. If Springs is clearly slowed, Gruden will send Galloway right at him. But Tampa Bay can either use extra tight ends to block for Williams or send out multiple receivers; it can’t do both without the personnel changes telling Washington what’s coming.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Washington’s superb punt coverage unit ranked second in the NFL. Although punter Derrick Frost’s gross average of 40.4 yards is near the bottom of the league, he gets excellent hang time, allowing Washington to keep half of opposing punt returns to three yards or less.

Meanwhile, the Redskins’ returns were poor early, but improved after the team resigned Antonio Brown in Week 12. Nothing in particular stands out about Tampa Bay’s special teams except for poor kick returns. The Bucs ranked 28th this year and, of course, have famously never returned a kickoff for a touchdown in franchise history.

OUTLOOK

This game will not be a shootout like the first meeting. Williams should have a better day, but Tampa cannot count on Washington to throw two interceptions or fumble three times again. The Redskins are playing very well, and they are only a wild card because they went 0-4 against the AFC West. They were 10-2 against NFC teams. Tampa Bay dealt them one of those two defeats, but Washington should overcome its injuries to avenge that loss.

The Pick: Redskins