Super Nova Leads A Field of Stars

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Okay, I know I said Seton Hall didn’t belong in the tournament, but sheesh. If you’re going to fly all the way to Greensboro, would it kill ya to at least show up for the game?


The Pirates’ 86-66 stomping at the hands of Wichita State opened the tournament with a thud, but fortunately yesterday’s games quickly made up for it. In the afternoon session alone we saw a crazy game-winning shot by Tennessee’s Chris Lofton, a furious Marquette rally fall just short against Alabama, and upsets by Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Montana. But the Best in Show trophy goes to the double-overtime classic between Boston College and Pacific, which saw both sides nail multiple big shots before BC prevailed in the end.


Today brings us 16 more games, and if they’re anything like yesterday’s we should be pleased. While no local teams are in action, there are a few noteworthy contests – most notably the rematch between Kentucky and UAB. Two years ago the Wildcats were the nation’s top ranked team before UAB stunned them in the second round; today, Tubby Smith’s club tries to get revenge. Let’s take a closer look:


WASHINGTON, D.C. REGION


(8) KENTUCKY VS. (9) ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM
9:45 p.m., Philadelphia


Don’t watch just for the vengeance factor. UAB is one of the most entertaining teams in the country, because they run and press the entire game. A personal favorite is point guard Carldell “Squeaky” Johnson, who has a great name, better dreadlocks, and an uncanny ability to zip through cracks in the defense and set up teammates. Off guard Mervitt McDonald is the key, though – he needs to get hot from outside for UAB to win.


However, UAB’s press may play into Kentucky’s hands. Point guard Rajan Rondo can’t shoot to save his life, but his skill with the ball is second to none. The Wildcats’ depth is a major strength, too, so they won’t run out of gas in the second half. And if the game slows down, nobody on the Blazers can match up with 6-10 sophomore Randolph Morris inside.


(1) CONNECTICUT VS. (16) ALBANY
7:25 p.m., Philadelphia


Wait, Albany has a basketball team? I knew they had the River Rats in minor league hockey, and the Patroons were a force in the CBA for a time, but this big-time college hoops things is a new one. What’s next, the Yankees moving to Schenechtady? Fear not, however – the Great Danes will endure great pains against mighty UConn.


(6) MICHIGAN STATE VS. (11) GEORGE MASON
7:10 p.m., Dayton, OH


The big news in this game is the absence of GMU’s Tony Skinn, their second-leading scorer in the regular season. The school suspended Skinn one game for punching a Hofstra’s Loren Stokes in the groin during the Colonials’ conference tournament loss, and that may cost them a first-round tournament win. It’s a particularly tough loss because GMU only plays seven guys, and Skinn was the closest thing to a true point guard.


Michigan State made the Final Four a year ago, but has looked very beatable this year. Guards Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager are as athletic as any in the country, however, and center Paul Davis is kind of a poor man’s Chris Mihm. Beyond those three, however, they get Spartan production.


(3) NORTH CAROLINA VS. (14) MURRAY STATE
9:30 p.m., Dayton, OH


UNC lost four lottery picks to the NBA this summer, and yet they have so much talent left over that they still might defend their national title. UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough is the best freshman in the country, a phenomenal post player who went nuts in the second half of the season. His final numbers – 19.1 points, 7.8 boards, and 57.8% shooting – actually underestimate how dominant he has become in the paint.


Carolina’s guards are a weak link, however, and the Racers will look to take advantage by the familiar lowseed tactic of running, pressing and bombing away on 3-pointers. The Racers were good enough to beat Cincy on the road and put a scare into Tennessee, but without anybody to handle Hansbrough, they’ll be one-anddone here.


MINNEAPOLIS REGION


(2) OHIO STATE VS. (15) DAVIDSON
12:15 p.m., Dayton, OH


Ohio State is one of those teams nobody is talking about … which always seem to be the ones that end up in the Final Four. Led by the brute force of center Terrence Dials and a slew of 3-point shooters to keep defenses honest, the Buckeyes were the surprise regular season champions in the Big 10.


Playing what amounts to a road game in Dayton means Davidson is probably DOA. However, they have a senior-laden group led by swingman Brendan Winters (son of former Bucks sharpshooter Brian Winters), and they have enough size to avoid getting steamrolled by Dials inside.


(8) ARIZONA VS. (9) WISCONSIN
12:30 p.m., Philadelphia


Lute Olson’s tournament track record speaks for itself, but he’s going to have a tough time getting very far with this group of Wildcats. Arizona again has a slew of great athletes, but unfortunately none of them can shoot a lick. Worse yet, many of them think they can shoot, most notably swingman Hassan Adams, so opponents just hang back in zone defenses and let the ‘Cats fire away.


Wisconsin is primarily a man-to-man team, however, so Arizona’s quickness could spell trouble. The Badgers faltered badly down the stretch, losing four of their final five games, and point guard Kammron Taylor is battling a nasty second-half slump. They’ll need to hit some shots to avoid being outrun by Olson’s greyhounds.


(7) GEORGETOWN VS. (10) NORTHERN IOWA
2:35 p.m., Dayton, OH


The Hoyas are one of the best defensive teams in the country, with the massive frontcourt of 6-foot-9 Brandon Bowman, 6-foot-9 Jeff Green, and 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert making it virtually impossible to score on them in the paint. But the Hoyas aren’t nearly as gifted at the offensive end. Green is the main catalyst, often breaking down defenses from the high post, but none of their big men are strong low-post players and the guards are nothing to write home about.


Northern Iowa is a half court team like Georgetown, but their plan will be to stretch the Hoyas to the limit with their outside shooting. They sure aren’t going to do it inside – the Panthers have only one starter taller than 6-foot-6. Somehow, UNI will have to get a few rebounds if they’re going to pull the upset.


(1) VILLANOVA VS. (16) MONMOUTH
2:50 p.m., Philadelphia


This one is another quasi-home game for a top seed, as Villanova won’t even have to change cities to take on mighty Monmouth. It’s not a long ride for the Hawks either, but it’s a quantum leap in terms of competition. Let’s hope they enjoyed being on ESPN in the play-in game on Tuesday, because their tournament stay will be expiring shortly.


ATLANTA REGION


(3) IOWA VS. (14) NORTHWESTERN STATE
12:25 p.m., Auburn Hills, Mich.


I think every NCAA Tournament Committee should be required to have a “wait a minute” guy in the room. He’s the guy who looks up at the seedings and says “Wait a minute ‘ so you’re really saying that Iowa is a better team than LSU or Kansas?” I’m convinced that if somebody like this were in the room, the process would work much better.


Iowa’s not a bad team, of course. They feature a shot-blocking ace in Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year Erek Hansenwhile guards Adam Haluska and Jeff Horner are deadly shooters. Northwestern St. counters with an uptempo, full-court pressing style that uses 10 players and substitutes in waves, so this should be a fun game to watch. But all that trapping means they’ll leave Horner and Haluska open from outside way too often.


(6) WEST VIRGINIA VS. (11) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
2:45 p.m., Auburn Hills, Mich.


West Virginia made a run to the Elite Eight a year ago, and the bracket is set up well for them to make another deep tournament foray. They’re also a tough team to prepare against because they’re so unique. Their primary defense is a 1-3-1 trap, and offensively they keep everybody on the perimeter – including 3-point shooting center Kevin Pittsnogle – and pick teams apart with back-door cuts and long jumpers.


That makes this game a tough matchup for SIU. They don’t have the kind of shooters who can punish the 1-3-1, and their aggressive man-to-man defense can get back-doored silly by the Mountaineers. However, the Salukis’ slow, grind-it-out style is hard on the eyes and usually produces close games, so tune in for the finish.


(7) CALIFORNIA VS. (10) N.C. STATE
7:20 p.m., Dallas


The best player on the court in this contest will be Cal’s Leon Powe, a chiseled 6-foot-8-inch power forward who averaged 20.7 points and 10.0 boards. Powe is a weapon in another way as well – he draws so many fouls that he constantly sends opposing big men to the bench with foul trouble.


N.C. State will have trouble matching up, as big men Andrew Brackman and Cedric Simmons lack the muscle to push Powe far from the rim. Additionally, the Wolfpack are battling myriad injuries that caused them to drop their final four games – most notably the knee problems that have limited Bulgarian forward Ilian Evtimov. They’ll hope to counter Cal’s power with precision passing and 3-point shooting, but could be in for a bruising.


(2) TEXAS VS. (15) PENNSYLVANIA
9:40 p.m., Dallas


The Longhorns make a short trip up I-35 to Dallas to host Ivy League champ Penn, who will be both hopelessly outsized and completely outclassed athletically. In terms of post-college plans, Texas center LaMarcus Aldridge could be the first player taken in the NBA draft, while the Penn guys are mostly thinking about their LSATs.


OAKLAND REGION


(8) ARKANSAS VS. (9) BUCKNELL
12:30 p.m., Dallas


Arkansas is a sleeper lurking at the no. 8 seed, with an athletic lineup that also has quality size. Swingman Ronnie Brewer is the star, boasting a diverse game that allows him to play four positions, while guard Jonathon Modica is an underrated second banana. The Razorbacks’ size could present problems for the Bison, who only have one quality big man in 6-foot-11-inch Chris McNaughton, and their pressure defense will severely test Bucknell’s guards.


(1) MEMPHIS VS. (16) ORAL ROBERTS
2:50 p.m., Dallas


Oral Roberts is pretty good for a school named after a televangelist, but no match for the Tigers on this stage. Memphis forward Rodney Carney may be the best athlete in college basketball, and he’ll be joining guards Darius Washington and freshman forward Shawne Williams in the NBA someday soon. By using full-court pressure against a turnover-prone ORU team, Memphis could turn the lights out early.


(5) PITTSBURGH VS. (12) KENT STATE
7:10 p.m., Auburn Hills, Mich.


Pitt’s trademark under Jamie Dixon has been tenacious defense. Led by bulldog point guard Carl Krauser, who must be in about his eighth year of college by now, and rapidly developing seven-footer Aaron Gray, the Panthers are experts at winning ugly.


Lately, however, they’ve been losing ugly, as a lack of offensive firepower has hamstrung them down the stretch. Against a soft defensive team like Kent St., they’ll need to regain their touch, because otherwise the Flashes will run them out of the building. Kent St. has just one starter taller than 6-foot-6, but loves to push the tempo and set up 3-pointers for wings DeAndre Haynes (40.5%) and Armon Gates (40.8%).


(13) BRADLEY VS. (4) KANSAS
9:30 p.m., Auburn Hills, Mich.


In terms of the quality of the two teams, this is probably the best first round pairing. I have no idea how Bradley was seeded so low, but they deserved a much better fate. Seven-foot center Patrick O’Bryant is a dominating force in the middle, especially defensively, which helps make up for a lack of offensive punch on the perimeter. Against almost any other team I would pick Bradley to pull a first-round upset.


But not against this one, because the Big 12 tournament champion Jayhawks also were underseeded. They have perhaps the best freshman class in the country in point guard Mario Chalmers, guard Brandon Rush and big man Julian Wright, a trio that came on strong late in the season. Despite the lack of experience – two sophomores start alongside the three freshman – Bil Self’s team led the nation in field goal defense (36.6%) and can get upcourt rapidly after a miss. They have a great shot at making an extended tournament run.



Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.


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