“The greatest regional of all time.” That’s what CBS’s Jim Nantz said about the Syracuse region when the NCAA tournament pairings were announced, and it wasn’t delirium from reading promos for “Spring Break Shark Attack.” With mega-talented North Carolina, defending champion Connecticut, preseason no. 1 Kansas, and SEC tournament champion Florida, it was easy to see why Nantz thought the region was so tough.

But appearances can be deceiving, especially in March. So instead of a blockbuster regional with UNC-Florida and Connecticut-Kansas on the slate, we’re left with what amounts to the North Carolina Invitational.

UConn, Kansas, and Florida all bit the dust in the first weekend. In their places are no. 5 Villanova, no. 6 Wisconsin, and no. 10 N.C. State. Wait, it gets worse. The best of the bunch, Villanova, won’t be at full strength since star forward Curtis Sumpter ruined his knee last week.

Thus, it’s Final Four or bust for Roy Williams’s Tar Heels. With an awesome collection of NBA-ready talent that includes backcourt aces Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants, sure-handed center Sean May, and freshman sensation Marvin Williams, there’s absolutely no excuse for the Tar Heels to lose either of the next two rounds.

Villanova gets the first shot at UNC tonight (9:55 p.m., CBS) in Syracuse. The Wildcats’ backcourt can hang with North Carolina’s, especially if leading scorer Allan Ray recovers from a horrific first week of the tournament. Between Ray, Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Nardi, the Wildcats should be able to contain the penetration of Felton and McCants.

However, the loss of Sumpter leaves a glaring hole in the paint. Without him, Villanova has no one to match up with Williams, a rangy 6-foot-10 forward who is as comfortable shooting the 3-pointer as he is slamming home a rebound. Additionally, Sumpter’s absence reduces the Wildcats to a six-man rotation, so they’re likely to be worn down by Carolina’s depth and athleticism.

Basically,toppling UNC will require a miracle, and ‘Nova used their quota in 1985 against Georgetown. However, the rest of tonight’s games should be more competitive. Here’s the rest of the slate:

(NO. 1) DUKE VS. (NO. 5) MICHIGAN STATE
7:10 P.M., AUSTIN

Don’t watch the battle on the floor in this one; watch the battle on the sidelines. Arguably the two best coaches in college hoops go head-to-head as Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils take on Tom Izzo’s Spartans. Coach K has done a brilliant job of using smoke and mirrors to mask his team’s lack of a bench this season, while Izzo’s team over achieved offensively by eschewing a go to guy and simply distributing the ball for high-percentage shots.

The two teams met in December, with Duke pulling out an 81-74 win. In that game, Duke guards J.J. Redick and Daniel Ewing combined for 58 points, offsetting a 17-point, 10-rebound night from Spartans center Paul Davis. Thus, Izzo’s game plan will focus heavily on containing the Duke backcourt. Of course, Redick makes nearly four 3-pointers a game and Ewing can get to the basket against just about anyone.

Another big story will be the two centers: State’s Davis and Duke’s Shelden Williams. Williams uses his long arms to block nearly four shots a game, while Davis’s style is pure power – most of his shot attempts end with him hanging on the rim. If either gets in foul trouble, he’ll put his club at a huge disadvantage, because neither side has much in the way of support for their star big man.

(NO. 2) KENTUCKY VS. (NO. 6) UTAH
9:40 P.M., AUSTIN

One of the little-known rules of the NCAA Tournament stipulates that at some point, Kentucky and Utah must play each other. The two have met five times since 1993, including the 1998 final, with Kentucky winning every time. Look for the Wildcats’ streak to hit six, as Utah’s guards should wilt against a stifling backcourt led by ball-hawking guard Rajan Rondo.

The toughest assignment, however, goes to do-everything forward Chuck Hayes, who is likely to face off against Utah’s All-America center Andrew Bogut. The Aussie import single-handedly won Utah’s first two rounds with his skillful passing and shot-making. Hayes’s challenge will be to guard Bogut competently one-on-one, thus eliminating the need to double team. Whether he’s up to the task will go a long way toward determining the winner, but Hayes should be tough enough to get it done.

(NO. 6) WISCONSIN VS. (NO. 10) NORTH CAROLINA ST.
7:25 P.M., SYRACUSE

In a game that has snooze-o-rama written all over it, two of the nation’s slowest, most methodical teams will try to bore each other to death. Wisconsin has scored 64 points or less in eight of its past nine games, yet won seven of them by working the clock for good shots and focusing at the defensive end.

Only two Badgers average in double figures, forwards Mike Wilkinson and Alando Tucker, but that’s still twice as many as N.C. State has. The Wolfpack’s one-man band is Julius Hodge (17.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg), but two new starters, freshman forward Andrew Brackman and nonstop wing Cameron Bannerman, have energized the attack. The two combined for 53 points in two games last weekend, giving Hodge some much-needed help at the offensive end.

N.C. State’s style, while plodding, is at least entertaining. The Wolfpack run a Princeton-style offense that’s heavy on 3-pointers, spacing the floor for backdoor cuts and the occasional post up for Hodge. History is on N.C. State’s side, too. No. 10 seeds do surprisingly well in the Sweet 16, going 6-of-16 since the tournament switched to 64 teams, while no. 6 seeds are just 11-for-30.

If the trend holds up, we’ll be looking at a backyard brawl between N.C. State and North Carolina in the regional final.