Team USA faces a no-win situation in the upcoming Tournament of the Americas, but they are making the best of it. Everyone expects the team to win, and the Americans must show that they can win big under international rules — something that has been a recent downfall of the national team.

The American team should win this tournament and assure themselves of a bid to the Olympics, but strong play in international tournaments is no longer a given. Team USA finished third in both last year’s World Championships and in the 2004 Olympics. Also, the team stumbled to a sixth place finish at the Worlds in 2002. So the team is cautiously optimistic, with an emphasis on caution.

Recent history notwithstanding, this tournament is best regarded as a tune-up for the Olympics, which are being held next summer in Beijing. The teams that America needs to worry about most are not in this hemisphere, or not taking this tournament seriously. Argentina, the gold medal winner in Athens three years ago, is already assured a berth in the Olympic tournament, so it is not sending all of their top players. Spain, which won the Worlds last summer, and other dangerous European squads such as France, Greece, and Italy are not part of this tournament.

That means that that the Tournament of the Americas should come down to America and Brazil, and since the top two teams advance that part of the equation is assured. Also, while the Brazilians are improving rapidly (just think about Suns swingman Leo Barbosa in the open court in a game with rules that favor his strengths), they still shouldn’t be any match for the American squad.

For all of the hand-wringing that followed last summer’s 102–96 loss to Greece in the semifinal game of the World Championships, it’s important to remember that the Americans went 8–1 in that tournament and throttled most of their competition. It’s just that the difference between Team USA and other national teams is a small fraction of what it was 15 years ago when the Dream Team made mincemeat of their opponents. Now, even though Team USA is the best team, if a quality opponent has the game of a lifetime as Greece did in that semifinal, the Americans might lose.

The most important aspect for the Americans to demonstrate in the next two weeks is an improved grasp of the international protocols. There is no defensive three seconds in international play, so teams will pack the middle and dare the Americans to beat them from outside. That will increase the importance of sharpshooters like Denver forward Carmelo Anthony and L.A. Laker guard Kobe Bryant. Also, it will put some pressure on Nets point guard Jason Kidd to push the tempo, as opposing teams will be tempted to sag off of him and dare him to shoot his inconsistent jumper.

Another adjustment will come from the way pick and rolls are officiated. During the Worlds, I saw numerous moving picks that weren’t called. Defending the pick and roll is something that tends to come from time spent playing together, and the national team has only a few weeks to prepare. Last summer, this resulted in numerous easy baskets for America’s opponents. The U.S. team at the Worlds lacked a shotblocker, but this time Tyson Chandler is on the roster and, although it will probably mean cutting a more talented offensive player, Team USA would do well to keep him on board to protect the rim, especially with the second unit.

Lastly, although it’s against the rules, hand checking is rarely called in international play, so the American team needs to be ready to avoid isolations in their offense. Most of the outside shots should come as catch-and-shoots, rather than attempts to back players down. This will take away one of guard Chauncey Billups’s key weapons, but he’s a very good outside shooter. The American squad was smart to bring in FIBA referees to officiate their scrimmages.

The first major decision for Team USA comes tonight when the roster is trimmed from 14 to the 12 that will play in the tournament. It’s almost a fait accompli that Seattle’s Nick Collision will be one of the cuts. The other will likely come down to Memphis guard Mike Miller, Seattle rookie forward Kevin Durant, and Utah point guard Deron Williams.

I’d cut Miller. I think Durant needs the international experience since he’s likely to be a cornerstone of future teams. Williams is essential in case of an injury to either Kidd or Billups. Miller is a sharpshooting wing, but the team already has Bryant, Anthony, and Milwaukee swingman Michael Redd. The team is covered in that area.

It won’t be enough to win this tournament. To show that the team is ready for the Olympics, the American team will need to demonstrate that it has mastered the differences of the international game. That will make a bigger difference than a few blowouts en route to a first place finish.

mjohnson@nysun.com