Team USA Has Found an Easy Path to the Finals

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The New York Sun

The stars are aligning for Team USA. Not only did they make it through group play unscathed at the World Basketball Championships, finishing at the top of Group D after yesterday’s 103–58 jog past an overmatched Senegal team, but the pairings for the elimination round could not have lined up more in their favor.

Virtually every dangerous team ended up on the other side of the bracket, giving the U.S.an extremely easy path to the finals.The two best teams in the tournament besides the Americans, Argentina, and Spain, are slated to meet in the semifinals, while sleeping giants like Lithuania, Italy, Turkey, and Serbia-Montenegro also ended up in the opposite half of the elimination bracket.

Meanwhile, the U.S. faces a relatively easy slate.Brazil’s surprise elimination in the competitive Group C — easily the best of the four pools — left Australia as the Americans’ first-round opponent. After that it’s a quarterfinal match against the winner of the Germany-Nigeria game — likely Germany — which figures to be another U.S. rout unless Dirk Nowitzki can manage to score about 60 points.

Even the U.S.’s prospective semifinal opponent, Greece, is a bit diminished. While the Greeks were one of four teams to go unbeaten in pool play (along with the U.S., Spain, and Argentina), they had to survive multiple close shaves to do it. Additionally, they lost their best point guard, Nikos Zisis, to a broken bone in his face courtesy of Brazil’s Anderson Varejao (See, I told you Brazil would impact this tournament).

Should Greece falter, any of the other three semifinal opponents — China, France, or Angola — are easy pickings. The U.S.has already blasted the Chinese twice (once in a tune-up game), while France proved how rudderless it is without Tony Parker by suffering an embarrassing loss to lowly Lebanon. As for Angola, they’ve been a pleasant surprise but are completely outclassed in terms of talent.

In fact, to show how easy the U.S.’s draw is, consider this: The three opponents the U.S. will most likely have to face to get to the Finals — Australia, Germany, and Greece — all lost to Larry Brown’s dysfunctional, non-outside-shooting bunch in 2004 (Germany’s defeat coming in a pre-Olympic tune-up). If they couldn’t beat that U.S. team, they sure as heck can’t beat this one.

Unfortunately, the U.S. did show a few chinks in its armor in the opening round, and those could be exposed in a final against Spain or Argentina. Opponents will study the film of the U.S.’s 94–85 win over Italy on Wednesday with particular care. The Italians opened up a 12-point lead in the second half in that game before a scorching hot Carmelo Anthony came to the rescue.

Anthony did what few U.S. players have done in international play in the past decade — get hot from outside.Taking a dribble or two and then rising up over Italian defenders, he arced in one jumper after another in setting a U.S.national team record with 35 points — an amazing 29 of them in the second half.

Were it not for Anthony, the game might have proven disastrous.The U.S.’s ball movement in the first half was horrendous, with way too much one-on-one play, while the Italians careful offensive approach and steady ball-handling negated much of the American defensive pressure. Plus, all those transition baskets the U.S. usually gets were largely eliminated by another European specialty: tactical fouling. Borrowing from their soccer brethren, the Italians grabbed anybody who looked like they might get a head of steam and forced the U.S. to play station to station.

Another problem reared its head at the line, where the Americans made only 19-of-34.This has been a problem all tournament, and probably has to do with the slightly smaller ball used in FIBA play. It’s not as much of a problem when the team is running and dunking, but just enough of a difference to throw them off on a finely calibrated maneuver like the free-throw stroke. (This also might be a good time for a rant on why, exactly, FIBA insists on using such different rules for a game that was invented and played here for half a century before anyone else picked it up. Can you imagine if the World Baseball Classic had used a different ball, changed the strike zone, and had the bases arranged in a trapezoid instead of a diamond?)

The missed free throws and lack of ball movement might be major issues against Argentina or Spain, both of whom posted a better victory margin in the opening round than the U.S. did. Their competition, however, was quite poor, as Argentina’s Group A was the weakest group and Spain’s Group B wasn’t far behind. We’ll know more about those teams in their quarterfinal matches, when Spain will likely meet Italy, and Argentina can expect a test from the Turkey-Slovenia winner.

The U.S. has another advantage on its side: It should enter the final round as the most rested team. After the frenetic five games in six nights of the opening round, the U.S. will have two full days off before playing Australia Sunday afternoon. You can make it three days once you include the Senegal laugher — coach Mike Krzyzewski wisely rested his big guns, with Dwyane Wade not playing at all and Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and Elton Brand seeing only token duty. Since the U.S. already was the deepest team and had asked the least of its starters, the American side should be the freshest when it matters most.

That’s one more reason to expect the U.S.to reverse the recent tide and win an international competition this time. Despite the weaknesses exposed in the Italy game, the U.S. is the most talented team here by far, and it has the shooting and team play that were so conspicuously absent in Athens. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but after five games the U.S. still looks like its clearly the team to beat.

jhollinger@nysun.com


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